Tag: storms
Eastern U.S. Sees Warm Christmas, Winter Storm Looms For Plains

Eastern U.S. Sees Warm Christmas, Winter Storm Looms For Plains

By Ian Simpson

(Reuters) – Much of the U.S. East Coast could see record high temperatures on Christmas Day and through the weekend even as a major winter storm looms for the southern Great Plains, forecasters said on Friday.

Temperatures are forecast to be more than 20 degrees above normal for the East Coast on Christmas Day, the National Weather Service said. Record highs were shattered on Thursday across the region, with Washington hitting 71 degrees Fahrenheit (21.7 Celsius) and New York topping out at 72 F (22.2 C).

Above-average temperatures will linger for the eastern United States through the weekend, with rain across the area raising the possibility of flash floods.

But in the western United States, winter was coming out in full force.

A storm system is expected to strengthen on Saturday and surge across the Rockies into the southern Great Plains, said lead forecaster Bob Oravec in College Park, Maryland.

“It’s going to be a pretty big, high-impact event coming up over the next few days,” he said.

An area from New Mexico to Oklahoma is under a blizzard and winter storm watch, with snow up to 2 feet (61 cm) possible for parts of New Mexico and northern Texas. Severe storms and heavy rain are possible in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana.

And in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains a winter storm dumped 2 feet (61 cm) of snow Thursday and Friday on Lake Tahoe’s Heavenly Mountain Resort, according to an online tally for the getaway spot. Snow was still falling on Friday.

Facing delays stemming in part from severe weather this week, package delivery company FedEx Corp said it was manning customer counters with volunteers on Christmas Day.

“FedEx is doing everything possible to get customer shipments delivered by Christmas,” FedEx, which is based in Memphis, Tennessee, said in a statement.

A storm system on Wednesday spawned tornadoes that killed at least 14 people in Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi. A spokesman for the Mississippi emergency agency said one person was still missing.

(Reporting by Ian Simpson; Additional reporting by Steve Gorman in Los Angeles; and Leslie Adler)

Photo: Young boys play in a park during an unusually warm winter day in Brooklyn, New York December 15, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

 

Fewer Hurricanes Predicted In Updated Forecast

Fewer Hurricanes Predicted In Updated Forecast

By Jenny Staletovich, The Miami Herald

Forecasters upped the odds for a slow hurricane season Thursday, predicting even fewer storms as record strong winds in the upper atmosphere keep a lid on brewing storms.

Just five to 10 storms are predicted over the rest of the season that runs through November, said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Counting Arthur and Bertha — two hurricanes that arrived early in July and August — only one to four more hurricanes are forecast. The prediction for the number of major storms with winds topping 110 mph still stands at up to two.

“But that doesn’t mean the season is over,” Bell said. “Four hurricanes is a fair amount and all it takes is one of those to make landfall.”

In May, forecasters predicted eight to 13 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes. They initially believed that an El Nino weather pattern would develop over warming Pacific waters and keep the season in relative check. They also forecast a slow monsoon season off West Africa, in addition to strong winds in the upper atmosphere.

As it turns out, the El Nino pattern has wilted and is now less likely to form during the Atlantic hurricane season. But the record upper winds and weak monsoon conditions appear to be enough to tamp down the season, Bell said. Tropical waters in the Atlantic that feed storms have also remained cooler than expected.

“They’re in place independent of El Nino,” he explained.

Upper atmosphere winds play a crucial role because they make it difficult for storms to grow in strength. Finding out what produced this year’s persistent pattern will take more study, he said, particularly if it relates to climate change.

Since 1981, an average hurricane season has produced 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major storms. For the last eight years, Florida — which has been hit more than any other state — has been struck by just one major storm despite more than 1,200 miles of coastline that open it up to storms from almost every direction.

While welcome, this week’s improved forecast should not be taken as a free pass for the season, Bell warned. Forecasters still can’t say in advance what direction storms may take and even one can make life miserable. Take Arthur, which turned the Fourth of July holiday into a frustrating evacuation for much of the Outer Banks when it struck as a Category 2 on July 3.

“There’s no way to predict so far in advance where a hurricane is going to strike,” Bell said. “Even a slow moving tropical storm can dump a foot of rain.”

AFP Photo

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Hawaii Residents, Tourists Hunker Down For Possibility Of Two Big Storms

Hawaii Residents, Tourists Hunker Down For Possibility Of Two Big Storms

By Maya Srikrishnan, Los Angeles Times

As Hurricanes Iselle and Julio headed toward Hawaii, Stan Lawrence boarded up his surf shop in downtown Hilo.

“It’s safer to be closed,” Lawrence said Thursday morning, although the sun was shining. Later, the rain began.

The last time a hurricane hit the state was in 1992, when Iniki veered past the Big Island and pummeled Kauai, killing six people and destroying 1,400 homes.

“Hurricanes are unpredictable,” said Lawrence, who grew up in Santa Monica and moved to Hawaii in the 1970s. “They’re like traveling bombs.”

Iselle, a Category 1 hurricane, was reported to be 90 miles east-southeast of Hilo and moving toward the Big Island at 17 mph. Coastal areas were bracing for heavy rain, wind, and flash flooding. Tropical storm conditions were expected to spread to Maui on Thursday night and to Oahu and Kauai on Friday.

Julio, the trailing storm, was expected to hit over the weekend or early next week, according to the National Weather Service. A Category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of 115 mph, Julio was 1,060 miles east of Hilo and moving at 16 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

Officials warned the public to get ready.

“We’re prepared for an immediate response and we have a recovery plan,” Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie said at a Thursday news conference. “I want to assure everyone on the Big Island, Maui, and elsewhere that whatever needs to be done, we’re prepared to do it. Response will be immediate.”

According to the Hawaii Tourism Authority, there are about 94,000 visitors on average on any given day on Oahu, 55,000 in Maui, 41,000 on the Big Island, and 25,000 in Kauai.

All beach parks in the state were closed, along with Hawaii Volcanoes National Park on the Big Island, officials said.

Mary Roblee owns the Ala Kai Bed and Breakfast, about 400 feet from the ocean in Hilo. She expects Iselle and Julio to be “by far the worst” storms she has experienced in her 10 years on the Big Island.

“We’re very worried,” she said. “We are prepared to evacuate if we have to.”

The National Weather Service was predicting winds of more than 40 mph, with gusts reaching 55 mph, to begin spreading early Friday. Swells were expected to reach 10 to 15 feet by Thursday night. Heavy rainfall between 4 and 7 inches was expected.

Hawaii’s Department of Education announced that all public schools were closed and would remain closed Friday. Some schools would serve as emergency shelters, officials said.

Hawaiian Airlines waived reservation change fees and fare differences for passengers who wanted to alter their travel plans because of the hurricanes, according to the airline’s web site.

American Airlines, Island Air, Mokulele, United Airlines, and U.S. Airways all announced flight cancellations, according to the Hawaii Tourism Authority.

Caroline Sluyter, spokeswoman for the Hawaii Department of Transportation, said that although the Hilo airport remained open as of midday, its personnel were preparing as though “you were preparing your home.” That meant tying down loose objects outside, such as small general aviation planes, and testing generators, she said.

“Hilo gets a lot of rain anyway,” Sluyter said. “So heavy rains at Kona may be more detrimental.”

Kona is on the island’s western shore, the opposite side from Hilo.

AFP Photo

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Strong El Nino, Which Could Bring Soaking Winter Storms To California, Fizzling Out

Strong El Nino, Which Could Bring Soaking Winter Storms To California, Fizzling Out

By Paul Rogers, San Jose Mercury News

SAN JOSE, Calif. — A powerful El Nino that had been emerging in the Pacific is fizzling out, evaporating hopes it will deliver a knockout punch to California’s three-year drought.

A new report from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration decreases the probability of an El Nino — the condition that occurs when warm Pacific Ocean water at the equator affects the jet stream — to 65 percent starting in October, down from 82 percent in June.

More significantly, researchers said, the ocean water that had been warming steadily through the spring has cooled off in recent months. So most of the world’s leading meteorological organizations now say that if an El Nino arrives this winter, it is likely to be a weak or moderate one — not the kind historically linked with wetter-than-normal winters in California.

“It’s fair to say that it’s plateaued,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md.

Other researchers are more blunt.

“We’re back to square one. It’s finished. I don’t think we even have an El Nino any more,” said Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory near Pasadena.

“If I were a betting man, I’d say it’s 75 percent that we’ll have another dry winter,” he said. “The unfortunate fact is that it looks like the last three years all over again.”

To be sure, California could still have a wet winter to help fill depleted reservoirs, replenish streams, and raise over-pumped water tables.

If a steady series of low-pressure systems develops off the Pacific Coast later in the year, that could bring tropical storms dumping rain in large amounts. The trend, known as an “atmospheric river” or “Pineapple Express,” has soaked the state in the past. But it has been all but shut down over the past three years as unusually persistent ridges of high pressure off the coast pushed winter storms north to Canada instead.

But the possibility that a strong El Nino won’t be there to help is “not good news, especially if we are using El Nino as an optimism index. It’s not what we want to see,” said meteorologist Jan Null, with Golden Gate Weather Services in Saratoga.

“It’s like in poker,” he added. “If you have one fewer spade out there, the odds of getting that flush are less.”

Generally speaking, the warmer the ocean water during El Nino years, the greater the likelihood of heavy winter rainfall. During mild El Nino years, when the ocean water is only slightly warmer than historic averages, there are just as many drier-than-average winters in California as soaking ones.

Since 1951, there have been six winters with strong El Nino conditions. In four of them, rainfall from the Bay Area to Bakersfield was at least 140 percent of the historic average, Null found.

But in the 16 winters since 1951 when there was a weak or moderate El Nino, California experienced below-normal rainfall in six of them. There was average rainfall in five and above-normal precipitation in the other five.

Thursday’s NOAA report was based on ocean temperature readings from dozens of buoys, wind measurements, satellite images, and more than a dozen computer models from scientific agencies around the world.

In April, the report noted, Pacific Ocean waters were nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal along the equator from the surface down to about 1,000 feet deep. But by last month, they had cooled — and are now half a degree cooler than normal. Wind bursts from Indonesia that had pushed warm water toward South America and the United States diminished. And huge amounts of heat dissipated and failed to trigger weather changes in the atmosphere.

“We’ve seen very lackluster atmospheric response,” said NOAA’s L’Heureux. “What typically happens with warm water in the eastern Pacific is that you see rainfall and winds shifting around. But it didn’t happen. It didn’t coalesce.”

As a result, none of the world’s major meteorological agencies is forecasting strong El Nino conditions this year. Most expect that Pacific waters will range from 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the historic average this fall, which would signal a weak El Nino.

Photo via WikiCommons

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