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What Republican Rebound? New Battleground Survey Finds GOP Vulnerable

Carville-Greenberg

What Republican Rebound? New Battleground Survey Finds GOP Vulnerable

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CGM battleground graphic

The final Democracy Corps battleground survey of 2013 belies the conventional wisdom that Republicans have enjoyed a major rebound over the last few months. On the contrary, our survey of the 50 most competitive Republican House seats and the 30 most competitive Democratic seats shows that there has been no movement. Furthermore, the second tier of less vulnerable Republican target districts has actually destabilized — meaning that there may be more Republican seats up for grabs than many believe right now.

While the disastrous ACA website rollout has taken a toll on the president’s approval rating and image, we do not find that voters are willing to punish Democrats — or, more importantly, reward Republican incumbents — for these failures. Instead, this poll finds that Republican members are damaged by their total focus on Obamacare. Voters increasingly believe that these vulnerable Republican incumbents are part of the gridlock in Washington, are too focused on battles with Obama, and are too aligned with Speaker Boehner, whose plans have not helped the economy or the jobs situation. We tested a series of messages and attacks (both for and against Republican incumbents), and found that battling on Obamacare is their weakest case for re-election. In fact, it undermines it.

This survey also confirms what we have been tracking all year: Seniors are moving more solidly into the blue column. In this survey, Democratic challengers have a 4-point advantage on the named ballot against Republican incumbents. As a reminder, Democrats lost seniors nationally by a 21-point margin in 2010.

Make no mistake, both frontline Democrats and frontline Republicans are made more vulnerable by what is now a total anti-incumbent wave. Both parties in Congress fare poorly in the public’s mind, but let us be very clear: Voters — even in Republican districts — reserve most of their anger for the party in power, which is now totally despised in terms of public image. When these incumbents are connected to the party and its leadership, voters’ trust in them takes a sharp decline.

Tomorrow, Congress will leave town for the year. We wish them all happy holidays. But we would not want to trade places with the Republican incumbents returning home to their districts tomorrow.

The full results of the Democracy Corps 2013 battleground survey can be found here (PDF).

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24 Comments

  1. topjob66t December 12, 2013

    Sean Maloney beat Nan Hayworth because Nan was more interested in standing behind John Boehner at every opportunity.than helping her constituents. Specially the farming community. Sean has come through for these, mostly GOP, folk. And who is running against him? Nan Hayworth of course. There will be lots of outside money pushing for her but all the money in the world last time didn’t help so why should it come 2014?

    Reply
  2. Beaulieu6 December 12, 2013

    The Republicans ship is sinking very quickly has Captain Boehner cannot negotiate neither compromise with President Obama on the most important issues. All the Republicans have done in the last 2 years is “OBSTRUCT” the President and critizing him in which they have no interest what so ever in doing anything, has Speaker Boehner cannot bring an important issue to a vote.
    We cannot believe anything we hear from the Republicans has they are spreading lies and more lies and they live in fantasy land, in which they are so out of touch with reality and the real World around them.
    As the Midterm election is approaching we have to replace Speaker Boehner with Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi D-Florida, and the Republicans with Democrats, in which the Democrats must regain the House of Reprssentatives, and keep the Senates.
    We all know to well that Washington work better together when we have a Democratic Congress, and Senate and a Democrat in the White House, in which thing get done a lot quicker.
    I’m optimistic, confident, and hopeful that America would reach a lasting prosperity in early January 2015, in which the Middle-Class, and the poor would benefit.

    Reply
    1. mickster99 December 15, 2013

      Boehner without the “eh?” becomes just plain ole Mr. Boner.

      1. Gene Simmon April 28, 2014

        So profound!!! Not

  3. Steven December 12, 2013

    What is going on in this slide? 1) It looks as though this organization is using Powerpoint 1997 2) This is a great example of putting as much possible information onto one slide, while at the same time not making one clear or discernible point.

    Reply
  4. Beaulieu6 December 12, 2013

    The Republicans ship is sinking very quickly has Captain Boehner cannot negotiate neither compromise with President Obama on the most important issues. All the Republicnas have done in the last 2 years is “OBSTRUCT” the President and critizing him in which they have no interest what so ever in doing anything, has Speaker Boehner cannot bring an important issue to a vote.
    We cannot believe anything we hear from the Republicans has they are spreading lies and more lies and they live in fantasy land, in which they are so out of touch with reality and the real World around them.
    As the Midterm election is approaching we have to replace Speaker Boehner with Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi D-California, and the Republicans with Democrats, in which the Democrats must regain the House of Representatives, and keep the Senates.
    We all know to well that Washington work better together when we have a Democratic Congress, and Senate and a Democrat in the White House, in which thing get done a lot quicker.
    I’m optimistic,confident, and hopeful that America would reach a lasting prosperity in early January 2015, in which the Middle-Class and the poor would benefit.

    Reply
  5. NaphiSoc December 12, 2013

    GOP Delenda Est!

    #UniteBlue
    uniteblue.org

    Reply
  6. KCMOfan December 12, 2013

    The GOP have been circling the drain ever since the Baggers took control of the House. Only a small minority with big mouths and wallets are in control of those extremists. Seniors would be ignorant to follow along with that crowd who want to get rid of SS and Medicare, while doling out tax breaks to the rich.

    Reply
    1. DownriverDem December 14, 2013

      I agree with you, but so many folks (seniors included) have been propagandized and brainwashed by the repubs going back to Reagan. They blame the Dems for all our problems and believe that Dems don’t work and just sit at home collecting money. A very clever repub message to keep the uninformed voting for them.

      1. plc97477 December 15, 2013

        The fact that red states have the larger portion of citizens on welfare and other aid should make the view of Dems. being the party of lazy takers look pretty foolish.

        1. mickster99 December 15, 2013

          Facts are useless against paranoid true believers.

      2. mickster99 December 15, 2013

        Not me. I have never been bamboozled by rightwing whackos. I remember only too well Joe McCarthy and his briefcase of names of commies in Congress. What a schmuck he was. And when compared to today’s lunatic teabaggers he might even be considered a moderate.

  7. phillygirl December 13, 2013

    It’s good to have some meaningful numbers while the MSM thinkers are dribbling on themselves in excitement over the Great Republican Resurrection. But these numbers are, you know, from a Clinton-loyalist pollster. Where’s Nate Silver?

    Reply
    1. bff426 December 15, 2013

      ESPN

  8. Ather December 13, 2013

    Guess we weren’t thankful for the shut down after all.

    Reply
  9. BBWeekly December 13, 2013

    This is a good snapshot of the stalemate that exists right now, with the shutdown and the health care rollout essentially canceling each other out. But now that the budget squabbles have been temporarily set aside, it’s now the GOP’s move. Obama hasn’t approached Congress to make changes to the health care act. Why not? The right needs a major speech right now that goes something like this (I recommend Senator Thune give the speech):

    “Republicans realize that repealing the health care act is not a viable option now that many of the reforms are in place. That was only a reasonable strategy prior to October 1st, when we were trying to slow everything down and to prevent the disastrous implementation. Democrats did not take us up on our offer of a temporary delay and we have all been forced to live with that decision. In reality, Republicans have always supported many aspects of the law, including encouraging competition with online exchanges, protections for those with pre-existing conditions, elimination of lifetime caps, and allowing offspring to remain on their parents’ coverage plans. We wanted to see those aspects of the law implemented competently so all Americans could benefit.”

    “The problem is, we don’t have a partner who will work with us in order to fix what’s wrong with the health care act. The President is never available. All he does is travel around giving speeches and attending fundraisers. If a Congressional member has heard from him more than one time in five years, it’s a miracle. This President has completely detached himself from working to get things accomplished in DC.”

    “If you or your employer are paying a dollar more for health care in 2014 than in 2013, then you are among the losers under Obamacare . If your deductible is higher, you can blame Obamacare . If you can’t see your doctor of choice, then you can blame Obamacare . If you are paying more because you are now forced to buy plans that include things you will never, ever need, then you can blame Obamacare . If you will never have kids, if you don’t use preventative care, or if you aren’t mentally ill, you are getting crushed by the added costs of Obama’s version of health care reform . And if your employer is considering dropping health care coverage, forcing you onto the individual market, then you will be a major loser under Obamacare next year – even if you don’t know it yet.”

    “So Mr. President, let’s get to work. This is what we need to do to turn Obamacare into a health care act that actually benefits the majority of Americans. We need to restore plan flexibility to the American people, so that people can keep their doctors and receive care at all of their local hospitals. Health care isn’t meant to be a progressive scheme, helping only the poor, so we need to make it more affordable for the middle class by allowing everyone to pay premiums on a tax exempt basis out of health savings accounts, even if they don’t itemize on their tax returns. We need to give some states more flexibility to implement their own plans for low income people, because the Obamacare expansion of Medicaid doesn’t work everywhere. And we need to eliminate the perverse incentives that employers have to cut worker hours or to toss their employees off their plans and into the individual market.”
    Signed,
    Everyone in the Republican party

    Reply
  10. Bill December 14, 2013

    The GOP needs more than just the 1% to stay in office, with their attacks on women, seniors, unemployed, and the poor how can they expect to win no matter how much they cheat.

    Reply
    1. plc97477 December 15, 2013

      They still can claim the low information voter. I am not sure for how long.

      1. RMarvel December 22, 2013

        It’s safe to say Obama gets the vast majority of the functionally illiterate vote — like the 50% of Chicago high school students that drop out before graduating. Progressives have already destroyed Detroit, and they’ve now got Chicago firmly in their gun sites. Their residents are paying .63 cents of every property tax dollar to service massive debt racked up during the Daly years to buy election after election. This is, after all, the same political machine that produced Obama. Any wonder our nation’s finances look like the state of IL?

  11. bff426 December 15, 2013

    You identify 50 districts you claim Republicans are vulnerable, yet in 28 of them they won the district by double digits in the last election, when Obama was at the top of the ticket. The turnout his organization pulled won’t be there this time, nor will the enthusiasm. History shows what happens in 2nd term off year elections, especially ones where the incumbent president has a favorability rating in the low 40s.

    On the other hand, of the 36 Democratic districts, only 7 were won by double digits last time.

    There’s always one problem with “named incumbent” polls when you asked people whether they will vote for them or not. There’s no “named opponent” to compare them against. That’s what makes this nothing more than cocktail party conversation.

    So everybody reading and commenting here, get your hopes up. Come January 1, everybody’s going to have insurance, their doctors will be in the network, there will be no more screw ups, everything will work perfectly. And Iran will give up their nuclear ambitions, Syria won’t keep their modern chemical weapons while giving us their old, leaking, dangerous ones to dispose of, China won’t laugh at us while creating more no-fly zones, and Michelle won’t kick his ass for coming on to the Danish Prime Minister.

    I hope Santa Claus brings everybody what they’re wishing for, a Democratic wave.

    Reply
    1. RMarvel December 22, 2013

      The only way Dems will win next year is massive voter fraud, but do not put it past them. They just stole the governors seat in VA. I have absolute proof of it. These people are vile enemies of democracy — “any means necessary” is their motto.

      1. Scott Klair December 25, 2013

        Please share you absolute proof that VA Democrats won the Governor’s seat by way of massive voter fraud. Since “Voter Fraud” has become a Republican talking point I have yet to see any evidence it is actually occurring at all; certainly not by Democrats nor in any numbers to be even statistically relevant.

        As Republican PR has never had a problem actually lying outright, I can guarantee if there was one shred of even nominally credible evidence of said fraud, as you purport, you would have already shared it with the VA Republican Party who would be trumpeting it nonstop at top volume.

        As I sit and listen quietly I don’t hear anything except the recent concession that the Democratic Candidate for Attorney General did, in fact, win. Of course, only after an unnecessary recount which Republicans certainly didn’t mind spending money on.

      2. ThyGeekGoddess December 25, 2013

        Weak. You can’t I’m rubber, you’re glue this one, buddy. I’m an indie voter, but that one’s 150% on rebugnicans.
        FOS

  12. Gene Simmon April 28, 2014

    Gee, I thought we were going to discuss the real issue! Minimum wage is a worthy topic but when it comes to just bashing each other nothing good comes of it. With that said. I would like to see a MATURE dialog on the topic. With honest data. So often one takes the data and skews it to support their point. The first thing should be: does the federal government have any business in this? Absolutely not. And you all say?

    Reply

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