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White House Predicts Stronger Economic Growth In 2014

Economy Memo Pad

White House Predicts Stronger Economic Growth In 2014


On Monday, the White House released the 2014 Economic Report of the President, providing insight into the economic progress made in the United States since the 2007-2008 global banking crisis, and presenting an optimistic prediction for the next several years.

The report, compiled by the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), highlights the positive gains made nationwide in the wake of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression. The gains are especially notable because they do not reflect sporadic economic advancements made only in concentrated areas, but rather widespread improvements that have allowed the rate of output per working-age person to return to pre-crisis level.

Among the 12 countries impacted dramatically by the crisis, only Germany experienced a nationwide economic recovery quicker than that experienced by the United States; by the end of 2008, Germany had reached its pre-crisis gross domestic product levels per its working-age population. The United States reached the same level two years later, in 2010.

The White House, which describes the country as “one of the best performing economies” since 2007, attributes the economic progress to the “full set of policy responses,” which were made under President Barack Obama.

According to the CEA, the Recovery Act of 2009 “raised the level of GDP by between 2 and 2.5 percent from late 2009 and through mid-2011.” Further contributing to GDP growth were “more than a dozen additional fiscal measures to create jobs and strengthen the economy” signed by the president. Those measures included the extension of federal unemployment insurance, small business tax cuts, and the payroll tax cut. The combined result of the Recovery Act and the later fiscal initiatives is a 9.5 percent GDP boost from 2009 to 2012.

Recovery has also meant an additional 2.4 million jobs added by businesses in 2013 – “the third straight year private employment has risen by more than 2 percent.” This may play a role in the decline in household debt, which has been falling since 2007. The report specifically attributes future economic progress to a greater percentage of households nationwide paying off debt, which then enables them to spend more – a process known as “deleveraging.”

The report adds that “a recovery in asset values, strengthening among our international trading partners, and demographic forces that are expected to maintain upward pressure on housing starts” all point to greater economic growth in 2014.

Still, the report concedes that the nation has not yet reached a full recovery, and there are still issues that must be combated in order to ensure economic growth and opportunity for all. The CEA admits that income distribution – which influences overall GDP and economic growth – has a “profound” effect on poverty. With rising income inequality plaguing the the middle and lower classes, many Americans have not actually felt the benefits of a recovering economy. Even if the economy continues to improve in 2014 and beyond, the widening gap between the nation’s rich and poor means that only a small population of Americans will benefit. This is perhaps why, as a Gallup poll released Tuesday finds, confidence in the economy among Americans continues to decline (57 percent now believe the economy is getting worse).

In order to boost the long-term overall economy, the CEA suggests federal funds be allocated to effective federal programs meant not only to help low-income Americans and the homeless, but also to set a foundation upon which the poor and unemployed are more easily able to access economic opportunities.

While the report offers good news, it also serves as a warning for those critical of the federal government’s “safety net“: These programs are among the most important means of achieving a full recovery in the coming years.

Chart via WhiteHouse.gov



  1. xpatYankeeCurmudgeon March 12, 2014

    Need a catchy, never-been-used slogan that will remind voters what a smashing success Obama and the Dems have been since embarking on record spending and taxing:

    Summer of Recovery!

    1. Lynda Groom March 12, 2014

      The Congress spends the money. The House is where the appropriation of money takes place. The President does not spend. BTW, taxes are a nearly historical low. For far too many of our Fortune 500 corporations the tax rate is ZERO.

      1. xpatYankeeCurmudgeon March 12, 2014

        You might want to look into “regime uncertainty.”

    2. Paul Bass March 13, 2014

      “Record spending and taxing..” Sorry, you must be referring to baby Bush…

  2. Dominick Vila March 12, 2014

    Economic recovery and job growth are evident throughout most of the country. That is, with the exception of a few RED states that continue to milk the Federal government for handouts while criticizing socialism and blaming someone else for what they are doing.
    I can’t wait to see the GOP strategy to increase their majority in the House and get control of the Senate in November. It would not surprise me if they take credit for the economic growth we are seeing, for job creation, and for deficit reduction. It would also not surprise me if the GOP rank and files applauds the performance of their elected officials, ignore the obstructionism that delayed the economic recovery, and vote for every Republican running for office. Another strategy may be to divert attention from the economy to issues such as ACA, immigration reform, gay marriage, abortion, and the construction of the Keystone pipeline, which most conservatives would love.
    Voting in the USA has more to do with the message that is conveyed to a largely naive constituency than facts, record or vision…and Republicans are well aware of that.

  3. CPAinNewYork March 12, 2014

    We have job growth, but it’s just numbers. it doesn’t take into consideration the fact that many of the recovered jobs pay less than the jobs lost by individuals.

    We’re still in a recession.

    1. Billie March 13, 2014

      Maybe so. None the less it’s better than no job at all. However, many of the jobs are in the tech industry. Here in my town the newspaper is full of classified ads wanting workers in all fields. Oil field, Medical and
      trades. Drilling companies are hiring all the time. One company will train you for 2 weeks and pay you $15 an hour while they do it. Then they put you on a rig and start you out at $20 an hour. I am a tax preparer and I did a return the other day that a driller made$105,000
      last year. And this was a fairly young man. Truck drivers with these companies are making near $100,000. All you Dems that need a job come and work in the oilfield. We don’t need any republicans, just democrats. By the way, this is Texas.

  4. Lynda Groom March 12, 2014

    This can’t come soon enough for millions of Americans. Too bad our poliical leaders have spent so much time worrying about minutiae instead of the big picture. JOBS, JOBS and more JOBS is what the new House promised in 2010. Instead they wasted time on trying to repeal health care and displaying their fear of the uterus.


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