Daniel Nadler and Evan Schnidman argue that a weak dollar may benefit those with stock portfolios and pension plans in their column, “Strong Dollar Advocates Make A Weak Case:
In almost every recent Republican presidential debate, some candidates have advocated for a “strong dollar.”
Among the more extreme views are the push by Representative Ron Paul for a return to the gold standard and the statement by Texas Governor Rick Perry that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may have committed treason, a crime punishable by death.
What gets lost in this clamor is any discussion of winners and losers from a strong U.S. currency, and the recent correlation between the greenback’s strength and declines in the stock market.
A study we recently conducted indicates that investors — who constantly look for the most predictive correlations and lead indicators — could have done little better over the past five years than by tracking the relationship between the dollar and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. We found that simply looking for an intermediate high in the dollar could have successfully predicted every intermediate S&P 500 market bottom over the past five years (see attached figures).