This Week In Polls: Don’t Take New Hampshire For Granite
It’s the weekend before the New Hampshire primary. And all eyes are on the polls for both sides.
For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders appears very likely to win this race, taking place next door to his own home state of Vermont. The big question is by how much — both because it could deliver him more delegates under the party’s system of proportional representation, and to see what kind of momentum he (or Clinton) can try to claim going into the next states of Nevada and South Carolina. Both of those next states are commonly viewed as being more natural territory for Hillary than for Bernie.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump has long been ahead in this state, in a heavily divided field. However, his second-place loss to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses may have blunted his momentum going into this contest — while at the same time, third-place Iowa finisher Marco Rubio is surging here, perhaps as establishment-friendly voters gather around him. But if Trump still pulls off the win here, he might very well get back on top of the media narrative once more.
- The University of Massachusetts-Lowell tracking poll has Sanders 55 percent, Clinton 40 percent. However, this poll shows an astonishing degree to which the race might have narrowed in the last few days — just this past Monday, the same tracker had Bernie up 61 percent to 30 percent.
- Suffolk University has Sanders at 50 percent, Clinton 41 percent.
- The WBUR (Boston’s NPR affiliate) poll has Sanders 54 percent, Clinton 39 percent
- CNN has Sanders way, way ahead with 61 percent, compared to Clinton at only 34 percent.
- The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll has Sanders at 58 percent, to Clinton at 38 percent.
- The University of Massachusetts-Lowell tracking poll has Trump at 34 percent, Rubio 15 percent, Cruz 14 percent, Bush 9 percent, and Kasich 8 percent.
- Suffolk University has Trump at 29 percent, Rubio 19 percent, Kasich 13 percent, Bush 10 percent, and Cruz 7 percent.
- The WBUR poll has Trump at 29 percent, plus 12 percent each for Rubio and Cruz, and 9 percent each for Bush and Kasich.
- The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll has Trump with 30 percent, Rubio 17 percent, Cruz 15 percent, Kasich 10 percent, and Bush 9 percent.
- CNN has Trump at 29 percent, Rubio 18 percent, Cruz 13 percent, John Kasich 12 percent, and Jeb Bush 10 percent.
Photo: Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton shake hands in the midst of the debate. REUTERS/Mike Segar