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Tuesday, January 22, 2019

You know by now that the Republican Party used their 2010 landslide to gerrymander an electoral map that would make it nearly impossible for them to lose the House of Representatives until 2022. Well, the impossible could happen if the GOP doesn’t change direction.

Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by a margin of 8 percent, according to a new Washington Post poll of registered voters.

That’s higher than the 7 percent-plus margin in the popular vote that ThinkProgress estimated Democrats would need to take back the House:

In order to take control of the House, Democrats would have needed to win the 2012 election by 7.25 percentage points. That’s significantly more than the Republican margin of victory in the 2010 GOP wave election (6.6 percent), and only slightly less than the margin of victory in the 2006 Democratic wave election (7.9 percent). If Democrats had won in 2012 by the same commanding 7.9 percent margin they achieved in 2006, they would still only have a bare 220-215 seat majority in the incoming House, assuming that these additional votes were distributed evenly throughout the country. That’s how powerful the GOP’s gerrymandered maps are; Democrats can win a congressional election by nearly 8 points and still barely capture the House.

If this is true, the 2014 election for control of the House would be a toss-up right now.

Another study suggests that even with a 8-point margin, Democrats could still be as many as 15 seats shy of a majority.

That the president’s party has any chance of even picking up seats is a historical anomaly and a sign that the polls that continue to show Americans leaving the Republican Party are a real problem for Speaker Boehner and his caucus — especially on the issue of guns.

An overwhelming 67 percent say Congress was wrong to kill background check expansion with 64 percent blaming Congressional Republicans for the defeat of the bill. A solid majority, 53 percent, say they could not support a candidate who voted against background checks, even if they agree on all other issues.

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

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55 responses to “If The Election Were Held Today, The GOP Could Lose The House”

  1. Something really needs to be done about gerrymandering.

    • tigerakabj says:

      Yes. Win REAL BIG next year, from the national level to local dog catcher. Then promptly help to establish independent commissions like in California and Arizona to draw up the districts (some can be done mid-decade).

      We can’t let 2010 happen again.

    • Blythespirit413 says:

      A lot needs to be done about gerrymandering and voter supression, and the sooner the better. I can take it if my candidate loses fair and square, but I dont want him/her to lose to cheating and fraud, anymore than I want to be defended by an attorney who cheated his way through Law School.

  2. Sand_Cat says:

    But it isn’t, and they won’t.

  3. Unfortunately, we still have almost a year and a half to go before we can cast our votes, and much can happen between now and then. I believe that with the exception of Tea Party loyalists, most Americans are fed up with the lack of positive legislation designed to strengthen our economy, create jobs, improve our infrastructure, and improve our standard of living. The GOP strategy of obstructionism contributed to their defeat in 2012, and it is likely to have the same results in 2014. That is one of the reasons why their focus has shifted to scandals designed to project an illusion of socio-economic chaos where prosperity and stability now exists. Lacking positive ideas on how to improve our standard of living and national competitiveness, they have no choice but to focus on deceit, distortion, and hyperbole. That may work for a few, for a short time, but it is bound to backfire when even loyal Republicans conclude that the people they sent to Washington are doing nothing to help them achieve their dreams.

    • mike says:

      We will wait and see. It is a midterm election and we know the history of midterms.

      If Obamacare implementation is as bad as it is going now and more people are working fewer hours because the business can not afford the rising costs of healthcare the dems will have a problem. Just remember there only about 75 seats in the House really up for possible change, the republicans only have to get 1/3 of them to have a majority. A big uphill battle for the left.

      The candidates won’t have Obama’s coattails to ride on. It is going to a fun and interesting election.

      But, more important, 2014 is a century away in politics.

      • Actually, if the final deployment of Obamacare in 2014 go as smoothly and is as successful as the facets that have already been implemented, its final deployment will be a breeze. The pre-existing condition and insurance caps are no more. Women wellness care is in place, dependents under age 26 can remain in their parent’s insurance, etc. Those are not failures, those are desperately needed changes that augur the success of Obamacare.
        I would have preferred a Single Payer system, mostly because I believe the reason for the rising medical costs we have experienced for decades involves the use of a middle man (insurance companies) that adds nothing positive to the system. The insurance companies, the expensive use of ERs by people who do not have insurance coverage, and out of control greed and fraud by medical providers and the pharma industry, are the reason our healthcare system is the most expensive and one of the most exclusionary in the world. Considering the circumstances, I readily accept Obamacare as a step forward, knowing that it has as many flaws as all other major programs, and that those flaws will have to be corrected as time goes by. Unfortunately, Obamacare does little to keep the insurance and pharmaceutical industries from pillaging the public.

        • mike says:

          Well said comrade. Keep dreaming.

          If this post is as believable as the last few then It is not going to go well.
          Still waiting for ALL those mean articles by the MM about maligning, insulting, threatening Obama since 2009.

          Your credibility keeps slipping with your blowhard statements.

          • Mike, if you wish to review media coverage demonizing President Obama since shortly after his first inauguration, you ae welcome to do it yourself. However, it does not take too much of an effort to remember the Rev. Wright claims, the Muslim in hiding charges, the apology tour, claims of being a socialist, a comnunist, of doing nothing while at the same time accusing him being the architect of policies that are destroying the country, of being born in Indonesia, then Kenya, and given enough time he is likely to become an extra-terrestrial.
            How is the neo-Nazi party and its affiliates doing?

          • mike says:

            I don’t need to review because there is nothing there. Your credibility is on the line. You made the statement-back it up.

            You keep going back to before 2009 and if yiou are so sure about your list produce the articles. It is pretty simple: show me the MM articles on your list. Remember: maligned, insulted, threatened by MM since 2009

        • Dominic, I en joy reading your posts and agree with the vast majority of them, but here, I must disagree, a little. The problem Obamacare (ACA) is facing now is that of employers opting for the bare minimum of coverage for their employees under the exchange system. Employees either could, or are, facing the prospect of health insurance that does not cover basic hospitalization. Or employers will drop coverage entirely. That is a troublesome problem that Obama must address, and soon, if he doesn’t want to see the ACA end up biting him in the backside comes the 2014 elections.

          • Yes, there are aspects of Obamacare that need to be addressed and changed. One thing that was not taken into account was the high probability of employers taking advantage of this legislation to cut benefits to save money and increase profits. I can’t say I am surprised…

        • P Roy says:

          “Actually, if the final deployment of Obamacare in 2014 go as smoothly and is as successful as the facets that have already been implemented, its final deployment will be a breeze.” It’s official – you haven’t a clue in the world as to what is going on around you. Ocare is a TOTAL DISASTER Sir…… good luck.

          • axt113 says:

            Not according to recent California data, it looks like a big success in the making, rates far lower than expected

      • axt113 says:

        New Data from California shows Obamcare may roll out extremely well

        • mike says:

          HOW DARE YOU! YOU INSIPID S.O.B.. On Memorial Day, of all days, you want to talk politics. We lost our Son, Army Ranger, 6 tours to Afghanistan and Iraq and you want to talk this crap. SHAME ON YOU!!

          SHAME ON YOU!!

    • P Roy says:

      “Deceit, distortion, and hyperbole” The Democratic slogan! Benghazi, IRS, AP, Ocare – you slow witted Dolt. Seriously, get your head out of the Dems keester

  4. Budjob says:

    My fondest desire is to witness the complete obliteration of the repulsive republicans!

    • Scott Ladd says:

      Liberalism is a disease. When you see the republican party gone, you’ll then see the obliteration of our country. Then again, I guess that’s what demonrats want!

      • A disease? You don’t call what the GOP is doing isn’t a disease? Obstructionism, taking us back to the 1800’s, cutting every benefit that a lot of people depend on and worked for, not to mention the insane remarks coming out of their mouths? You don’t call that a disease?

        • P Roy says:

          see, that’s your problem Mad, you’re totally brainwashed, have ben since your first O vote. get help, seriously. Obstructionism – you mean stopping a runaway O train from totally destroying America via all of the socialist programs. Do you feel good paying for all of the FREE welfare, healcare, foodstamps, free EBT [cash] cards, cell phones, housing, tv for 47,000,000 people? You DO know that YOU pay for all of that right?. Wouldn’t you rather be able to give all of that money to your familiy members? Please, seriously- tell us all what EXACTLY it is you like about the Dem party – can’t be the IRS scandal. Can’t be the failed Ocare, can’t be the AP spying scandal, or them getting 4 Americans killed by lying to our faces – so, WHAT do you like about them? Thank you.

          • pbrower2a says:

            The irony — through his incompetence as a steward of the American economy, George Worthless Bush led us into the biggest socialization of private property ever through “socialism by receivership”.

            Barack Obama has presided over the sell-off of much of that to the private sector. That may not be socialism, but I certainly endorse that.

      • What is a disease is the ignorance, intolerance and overt hatred the Tea Party supporters demonstrate time and again. The role of government is to contribute to a strong economy, job creation, the welfare of the people, and our national security. Saying no and compromising our standard of living and national security to gain political points goes well beyond what most of us consider a disease, it is nothing less than treason and that’s the only thing the TP has shown to date.

        • angelsinca says:

          “The role of government is to contribute to a strong economy, job creation, the welfare of the people, and our national security.”

          Agree, with the key word being contribute. Unfortunately, actual recent actions indicate complete control.

          “… compromising our standard of living and national security to gain political points goes well beyond what most of us consider a disease,”

          Again, agreed. But, You should be feeling more like Mongo the pawn instead of Orville the Obama cheerleader. It seems the sequester cuts, that have been tailored to inflict as much political damage to the GOP as possible, have compromised the std of living and nat’l security in order to make political points.

        • P Roy says:

          The role of government is to:

          – contribute to a strong economy: FAILed. No plan

          – job creation: FAILed. No plan

          – the welfare of the people: FAILed. Cares only for illegals
          – our national security.: FAILed. No plan, and keeping nitwit Napolitano in office.

        • mike says:

          Misguided again I see.

          The most important role of Government is to secure the rights and freedoms of the individual citizen. Nation Security is right up there.

          This administration just wants to control everything, how can you contribute to the economy with 4062 new Fed. regulations, higher energy costs, 400 new reg. for small business, new EPA reg. will cost between 476,000 and 1.4 million jobs and 47Billion and 141 billion in GDP by2014(american council for capital formation), the list goes on, there is very little help for the business community to grow, and without growth we are in trouble.

          Since you can’t seem to find the articles that the MM maligned, insulted, and threatened Obama since 2009, show me where the GOP has compromised National Security and standard of living. I am looking for specifics.Teach me my maven friend.

      • emblaze says:

        Demonrats? The C to N consonant change is too jarring to be clever. It doesn’t flow well. Decent start, but I suggest you work on it.

      • pbrower2a says:

        If you want the obliteration of this country, then let it go fascist. At least the Germans, Italians, and Japanese had cultural identity that we Americans lack.

        Liberalism put an end to

        the Divine Right of kings
        child labor
        disenfranchisement of women

        Jim-Crow laws

        It offered the antithesis to fascism. When we conquered Italy, Germany, Austria, and Japan we imposed liberal institutions. The civil rights struggles of the 1960s. Revolutions of 1989 in central and Balkan Europe and in South Africa a few years later were based on liberal ideas.

        You are flagged for calling us Democrats “Demon rats”.

    • plc97477 says:

      I don’t think it is going to be long now.

  5. disqus_ivSI3ByGmh says:

    Until there are enough relocated registered Democratic voters in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Virginia, etc. to overthrow the current elected Republican majorities in their State Legislature, Republicans will continue to rearrange House Districts to keep their party in power, and marginalize their opponents. They configure districts to loop around areas granting token Democratic Representation, while making sure that any Democrats that cannot be gerrymandered out are a minority. The problem is every 10 years, that becomes harder and harder in these states as fewer people register Republicans. The party needs to realize that not everyone with a VA card, an AARP membership card or a hunting license is automatically going to vote Republican, otherwise they will be building these “safe districts” around unrealistic expectations (from my lips to God’s ears) and will result in their losses.

  6. latebloomingrandma says:

    There should be a law that districts have 4 straight sides, rather than looking like a bunch of Rorshach tests. My district has looked like an inksplot, then an amoeba, now a fish.

  7. Scott Ladd says:

    I chuckle here a little. you foolish liberals, cabn’t see what the black in the whitehouse is doing to our country. You think the republicans are at fault.You might better look at Harry, and Nancy if you are looking for the people stopping progress. they live fat, and happy from your tax dollars. Barry O is laughing at you, and you can’t see it. Now if you can, tell me what good, Obama has done for the country.

    • AAh! Pelosi and Reid aren’t (dare I say the word) BLACK!! So we are at the crux of the matter are we? You are a closet bigot!!

    • Scott, try to think logically for at least a few moments, reflect on what you said, and then come back with something positive to say instead of the usual immature diatribes.

      When President Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 the Dow was at 6,500 points, today it is well over 15,000. Americans banks were on the verge of collapse and credit had evaporated. Our banks are again on solid ground, making a profit and credit has been restored. GM and Chrysler we planning to shut down. Today, thanks to government assistance, they are profitable and tens of thousands of American workers kept their jobs and have been able to support their families without relying on unemployment benefits or welfare. The real estate market and construction collapsed in 2008. Today, new construction is evident in most U.S. cities and towns, house prising are rising again, and bankruptcies and foreclosures are back to normal levels. Osama bin Laden remained at large for almost a decade, today he is no more. The monthly record of terrorist attacks of yesteryear is down to one incident in four years. And the list goes on.

      Yes, we can all see what the man in the White House has done for our country, for our standard of living, for our corporations, and for our national security. Obviously, our interpretation is different from yours, and we definitely don’t want to take the country back to an era that belongs in the history book and that should serve as a model of what not to do, but that’s what makes this country so great, we can all express our opinions even when those opinions are illogical or overt examples of demonization and hyperbole. Have you sent your white robe to the drycleaners yet?.

      • angelsinca says:

        I really want to kumbya with you all the way to the polls but can’t quite fill the tank this week. I am saving up for the co-pay to see a doctor. And then, no actual treatment until the deductible is paid. That house we had hoped to buy is now 40% more than it was last year. And gosh darnit, the bank says the drop in net income from the increased healthcare costs and the 17% reduction in unemployment payments just isn’t good enough for that home loan anyway. But it looks better than it could have been, or so they keep saying.

      • tigerakabj says:

        Well said. Well said. I’ve got nothing to add onto your policy and historical smackdown, but I will say something about these encounters after blogging and responding on these political blogs for the past 7 years.

        When I reply to most of these guys (especially the one’s that continually post) it isn’t to convince them or reason with them — it’s to, like batting practice, see how many pitches (in their case, empty talking points, negativity, and straight-up lies) I can knock at 80 mph or faster back down their throats in a given time frame. Helps to strengthen up the political argument game when confronting those in daily life. Tore this GOPer up in New York a new one when she started up on “Obama is bad” foolishness whereas 5 years ago would not have been the case. My mother now can’t wait to get into it with them at chamber of commerce meetings and at church (she loves to quote scripture now to show how all that “free healthcare” and “caring for the poor” stuff goes against what the GOP preaches).

        “Liberals, libtards, government is the problem, you guys are blaming Bush again, too much spending, not enough voter i.d’s”…all talking points or catch words I can now see coming a mile away.

        Keep up the good work and lets keep amping up the progressive attack.

    • Tim Coon says:

      Can’t see what the “black” in the white house is doing to our country?? Go put a bullet in your head from one of your precious guns, you piece of shit racist, & quit wasting our air.

    • plc97477 says:

      That’s okay we are laughing out loud at the crazy that is the repugs.

    • atc333 says:

      Reversed the Pending Bush II/GOP Second Great Depression into a recession for starters. He has exposed the blatant fallacy of the GOP failed economic theories, and successfully kept “Etch a Sketch” Romney out of the Presidency, protecting the “47%”, He is attempting to deal with unemployment, and job creation, although blocked by the remnants of the GOP in the House, as well as increase Federal Revenues, which the GOP has also blocked.

      So, considering that he has managed to protect this nation and its people from the GOP’s “Magic Mitt”, and increased the numbers of Democrats in the House and Senate, which resulted in the GOP being unable to pass further disastrous GOP polices, such as “deregulation” a further cause of the Bush II meltdown, and more tax cuts for job creators, responsible for almost half our deficits as well as massive redistributions of wealth to the non performing Job creators.

      So, all in all, considering the Party of No controls the House,and despite the GOP’s continuous blocking and stalling he has done quite well so far.

    • pbrower2a says:

      Flagged for bigotry.

      Barack Obama so far is an above-average President. Dubya was awful.

  8. elw says:

    It really doesn’t matter what the polls show, unless they say the Republicans are winning the radicalize Conservatives in the Party will not believe them. Like all Radicalized people they are on a road that they cannot get off. They will continue spewing their nonsense and doing whatever they can to block progress until they are voted out. Even then they will blame their loss on people who get free stuff, the President stealing the election and anyone or thing else rather than themselves, the policies they push and their own words. So let them spew their hateful and deceitful messages, just ignore them and vote. There are many more moderates and progressive in this nation than radical Conservative and if all of us vote they cannot win.

  9. Lovefacts says:

    I hope Obama will use his voter data and volunteers to help get out the vote. If not, we Americans will be the losers.

  10. howa4x says:

    They don’t have a platform that appeals to anyone not a tea party member. Congress people are afraid of a minority of voters who happen to come out in force in the primaries. Now the tea party is the new plague in politics so anyone with their endorsement is holding kryptonite. Republican moderates are tired of being branded by that label, and might create a schism that democrats can squeeze through in solid republican districts. If I were a republican incumbent I would look how close Colbert got to Sanford in a right wing district. That shows that they are not even totally safe in their own crafted districts.

  11. P Roy says:

    Dems – one Q: you all obviously love the scandinavian model of socialism – why didn’t you move there years ago? You’ve turned Socialist and what, you don’t even know it?

  12. P Roy says:

    Dems, you poor brainwashed nitwits – here’s the new batch of “O-aid” [replaces kool-aid from Jonestown], drink up —- again.

  13. Pamby50 says:

    We can not get lazy now. We have to keep up the pressure. That is the only way we can get the house back.

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