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Saturday, July 21, 2018

Measuring GOP Extremism: What Carville And Greenberg’s Latest Polling Reveals

Measuring GOP Extremism: What Carville And Greenberg’s Latest Polling Reveals

It is becoming increasingly plain that the most formidable obstacle to national progress and global security is the Republican Party – and specifically the extremist factions that currently dominate the GOP.

Now Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and political strategist James Carville have announced what they plan to do about that pressing problem: namely, “The Republican Party Project,” which will provide extensive survey research devoted to “exposing, monitoring, and confronting” the Republicans while helping Democrats and progressives to regain the political offensive.

To begin advancing these ambitious goals, Carville and Greenberg released the first in a series of polls on Wednesday that showcased several of their target’s most divisive and dysfunctional features —  and revealed some surprising weaknesses that could eventually prove disabling if not fatal.

In surveys of more than 1,700  U. S. voters conducted for Democracy Corps between July 10 and July 15,  the methodology used by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner oversampled Republicans in order to allow detailed analysis of two subgroups: Republicans themselves, and independents who lean toward the GOP. The overall margin of error was under 3 percent and the margin of error for Republicans was about 4 percent.

According to Carville and Greenberg – whose presidential polling proved the best national voter survey in 2012, predicting the popular vote with pinpoint accuracy – Republican extremism is leaving the party increasingly isolated, even from many of its own members.

At the moment, only 31 percent of voters identify as Republicans, compared with 38 percent who identify as Democrats and 30 percent who call themselves independents. (Aggregated surveys collected by Pollster currently confirm an even worse scenario, with Democrats at 34 percent and Republicans at 23 percent.)

But just as significant as party identification is how voters see the Republican “brand.” Although Democrats as a party and in Congress are not exactly beloved, their net negatives are around 10 points below those of the Republicans, who are regarded with absolute disdain by most of those polled. Only 13 percent believe that the GOP “shares their values” and only 9 percent believe that the GOP has “realistic solutions to the nation’s problems”