Mitt Romney Is Losing The Election That Matters

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Mitt Romney Is Losing The Election That Matters

October 25th, 2012 6:06 pm Jason Sattler

If you average all the national polls together, Mitt Romney has a slight lead over President Obama — anywhere from .01 percent to .09 percent.

But if you look at the swing states where the race is being decided, Mitt Romney is losing — and he’s never been ahead.

As The New Republic’s Nate Cohn wrote Thursday morning, “With just 12 days to go, every day without signs of Romney making gains in Ohio, Wisconsin, or Nevada counts as a win for the president.”

Romney needs to win all three of those states to win. And if he loses Ohio and Virginia, he’s done. Virginia is closer than Ohio is.

The New York Times’ Nate Silver explains that while Romney’s numbers improved after the first debate, he never had much if any momentum in the states that matter:

Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 polls, to Mr. Romney’s 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney.

Romeny’s team is trying to sell the idea that they have some momentum and the national polls confuse the issue. But The Washington Post‘s Jonathan Bernstein questions if such a thing even exists:

We’re better off thinking of “bumps” and “bounces” — reactions to events, which move a set of voters for either a very short time or a longer term. In Romney’s case, he had a “surge” in early October — but that tells us absolutely nothing about which direction the polls are moving in now and will move in until election day.

You can understand why Romney is trying to conjure the idea that he has some momentum, though. Because if things don’t change drastically the election that matters will be over, and he’ll have lost.

Photo credit: AP Photo/ Evan Vucci

Tags: 2012 election, electoral college, Mitt Romney, Swing States

nobsartist

their momentum is like that of a snow skier. downhill. and quickly.
bcarreiro

lifes a bed of roses but watch out for the pricks….carma is a bitch.
daniel bostdorf

This is simple math friends.

Romney can’t win the electoral college. Obama has Nevada, Colorado and Ohio.

The game is over.

elw

In our workd your right – In the Repugs” world, the only math used, does not add up.
http://www.facebook.com/dominick.vila.1 Dominick Vila

I agree. I would not be surprised if Romney carries Florida, but the only thing those 29 votes will do for him is give his loss on 11/6 a bit of respectability. Romney can not win with only Texas, Florida and a bunch of Southern and Bible Belt states whose vote tally average 10 points. California alone can offset half of the small states.
http://profile.yahoo.com/IIAFAK62EMBFOLOX76RKHIW7TA Gilbert

I agree, BUT…… We’ve got to actually show-up and vote! Then the game will be over.
ECassious2

Guys, here is the real deal. Romney wins this election, and it is not even close. It absolutely will not be close. We are talking Reagan Carter. Just wait and see. The polls that shoe a 4% advantage for Romney will actually be a 7-9% advantage. They are always skewed……always. You can make a comment and bash me, but this statement will be fact in a little over a week. Guaranteed.

mikecoatl

You’ll be eating those words in a little over a week. Guaranteed. No? Then how come you are trying to desperately push this momentum myth that is not reflected in the numbers? If Romney wins at all, it will be by the narrowest of margins. And it won’t be clean. And it will be a Pyrrhic victory at best for you, because Mitt Romney will be such a disaster that the GOP may never win again after him.

So, you can beat your chest and indulge in your Dean Chambers fantasies all you want. It won’t matter in the end. THAT is “the real deal”.

ECassious2

The momentum is evident in the numbers. Even areas that are democratic strongholds are showing Obama has waning support compared to 2008. I know you guys dont’t like numbers, but the info is available if you’ll look. The bottom line is that our base is fired up and independents are moving in Romneys direction. Obama will not get the same mad rush that he received last election, not even close. Without it, he has no chance. Our country has too much sense to vote him in a second term. Obama has become nothing more than a sound byte. People vote their pocket books and too many people in this country know what a good economy looks like. It will not happen, and it will not be close. The great thing about this country is that we can debate these things and have a say in how it turns out.

hilbuk

OK, I can agree that Obama has a lot less support now than he did in 2008, but he won by 7 points in 2008 with 360+ EVs. Losing some of that support still gives him a lot of wiggle room. This will be a close race. Either candidate can win, but Obama is favored.

And what is your evidence that the polls are “skewed?” The polls in 2008 were perfectly accurate on aggregate. Down to the tens place. We have even more polling today.

Romney MAY win the election, but if he does, it will be by a hair. He’ll be within 2 points nationally and will probably have fewer than 280 EVs.

Obama is favored to win. If he does it will also likely be close–within 3 points (probably more like 1.5 nationally), and probably less than 300 EVs.

It is also becoming increasingly likely that Romney could win the popular vote and lose the EC, though the most likely scenario is that the EC winner is also the popular vote winner.

There is NO WAY Romney will win this election in a landslide. Even Obama’s 2008 victory–which felt very large–was less than Reagan-Carter and ones like that that you are predicting. There is absolutely no way Romney could come close to how Obama did in 2008. His maximum performance would be along the lines of Bush in 2004, and even that is very unlikely for him.

http://profile.yahoo.com/X2SJQ3EI652D6BLVTPO3AR6SJ4 TEDDY

The race is close, I think Obama will pull it out. I am a close follower of polls for years but todays polls are just a joke. How could it be with Gal and Ras polls differ from the rest by such large numbers.

me987654

When something looks like an outlier it usually is. There are huge numbers of state polls from many pollsters that all basically agree in most places. Gallup is out on an island and Rasmussen is not very credible pollster (ras is the only pollster that re-weights for partisan ID)

Kuros

ECassious2

Ha! No doubt I was wrong. Well, I suppose i was correct that it was not even close. (from an electorate standpoint) The great thing about this country is that while I am 100% convinced we have made a really bad mistake, it is the decision our country made. The people spoke and Obama gets the extra time he says he needs. I truly wish him luck as he creates a different version of America.

ECassious2

BTW, Obama does not have Ohio and Colorado. The democratic party has canibalized their base through their early voting push. We Repubs wait till gameday.

mikecoatl

The early-voting lead in Ohio is breaking for the president about 2-1. That will be VERY difficult to overcome. You don’t even have North Carolina, right-wing bluster aside.

ECassious2

North Carolina will go to Romney. As far as Ohio is concerned, 57% of the dems early voting are people wha have voted in 3/4 of the last elections. In othedayords, they are the dem base. Only 27% of early voting repubs fit into this category. Dems are eating up their base before election day and trying to pass it off as new voter momentum.(smart strategy I suppose) If you don’t believe this, then ask yourself if you truly believe Obama is going to win Ohio 2/1. There are more new people voting for Romney, and our base is still entact for election day.

norishman

That sound’s interesting and all – but what’s your source? Just curious is all…
Also, not to say I think Obama will win 2/1 – but your statistical analysis confuses me… Percents are nice when comparing statistically equal samples……but the point of GOTV is to get more people – i.e. a statistically larger proportion. Since we know that Obama’s early voting sample is statistically larger in comparison, the proportion of independents/Romney converts within the data could very well be larger than the GOP’s – even with the percents that you’ve presented. This is merely an unbiased conjecture, since I don’t know the details – but it is still a possibility nonetheless. Let’s not jump to conclusions…
Also, we can’t conclude that all people who’ve voted in the last 3/4 elections (who voted for Obama now) are Democrats. Correlation is not the same as causation – as voting in the last 3/4 elections does not cause you to be a party affiliate (it would, however, if the statistic was for people who “voted Democrat in the last 3/4 elections” – but it isn’t so we can’t assume that).
In all seriousness, being 2:1 ahead in early voting is nothing to scoff at. It doesn’t mean he’ll win 2:1 – but it could definitely mean the difference between being tied and being ahead by one point.
ECassious2

I really like your line of questioning and logic. (seriously) The data that was compiled and analyzed (albeit not by me) took into account much of what you have discussed here. For instance the statistic is referring to those that have voted for democrats in 3/4 of the past elections. (although i certainly did not specify this…good question on your part)As I am writing this, i am looking for a link to the article. The gentlemen is 1 0f 2 world renown stats “guys” predicting a Romney blowout. The general idea is that the Obama campaign is getting their base to vote early which will simply mean less will be voting on election day while Romney will make his run on the days leading up.
me987654

You do realize that Obama doesn’t need new voters in Ohio right? If he and Romney both turn out all their voters Obama wins. Ohio has more democrats than republicans by a fair margin.

Also, Obama is more likely to win North Carolina than Romney is to win Ohio
ECassious2

But not all Democrats are voting for Obama (moderates) and independents are well represented in Ohio. You keep talking about North Carolina, but that is going to Romney.

Hey on a different note, and in all seriousness….are you going to be impacted by the hurricane? Obviously, I have no idea where you live. It really does sound like a bad deal.

Gihan J

Actually the Obama campaign has said that their focus during early voting is to get sporadic voters out to the polls.

ECassious2

They say a lot of things. Here is the reality of the numbers. 57% of the early voting dems have been people who have voted in 3/4 of the last elections. Only 27% of the Romney early voting is from this group of people. Obama is canibalizing his base before the election while Romney is seeing more new “votees”.

me987654

Where’s the evidence Romney is getting more new voters?

And as I told you before. The democratic base can win Ohio on it’s own IF they turn out… which is what they are doing
ECassious2

Seriously, wheres the evidence? Are you watching this election and the polling. The democratic base alone can’t win the election alone. You need the momentum from 2008, and it just is not there.

Tone

Stop it!Obama Biden 2012!
me987654

Early voting is WHY Obama won Ohio in 2008 and why he’ll win it in 2012.

ECassious2

He is not winning. We have never re-elected a president with a platform of ” i just need more time”, and it is not happening this go around. This Benghazi thing alone is going to cost this president no matter how they try to spin the story. The experiment is over.

nobsartist

Obama has more than that. He has Fla, Penn and Wi also along with Texas and AZ.

latebloomingrandma

I don’t think he would ever get Texas.

TZToronto

Yes, I have no illusions about TX. The Republicans could run anyone but Satan there, and they’d win–and even if they ran Satan, it’d be close.

northroader1775

AZ and TX are only possible if every latino votes and every other minority…they should but typically they don’t. if everyone under 30 all women and all minorities vote and vote for Obama….maybe but I’m not holding my breath.
mikecoatl

AZ is possible. But Texas is still a few cycles away, I’m sad to report.
hilbuk

Obama has PA and likely WI. He could get FL but probably won’t, and doesn’t need it anyway (if he gets FL he’s already winning with other states.) TX and AZ are extremely far out of reach. That’s like saying Romney could get MA and NJ, respectively. Never going to happen, even if he was the governor of MA.

Stephen Johnson

Here’s something to consider. Politico had a headline that included a chart. One side showed how many Obama field offices were in Colorado (over 125, as I recall) and the other side had the number 300,000 – meaning how many “personal contacts” the Romney campaign made in ONE week with Colorado voters. I volunteer at an Obama field office in North Carolina. Each field office is pretty much the same – very organized, very busy. One thing we do is make phone calls (but we pound on doors, etc.). When we make calls, for every 100 numbers of a list, we might be able to get 20% to actually answer their phones (we call from our cell numbers, by the way, so no one knows we’re calling from the Obama campaign). Think of that – 20% of all calls actually get through. Now consider the claim by the Romney campaign that they made over 300,000 personal contacts in one week with Colorado voters. That would mean that they would have had to call over 1,500,000 voter numbers in that same week. If anyone has an experience making voter ID calls or GOTV follow-up calls, you know that this can not be done. UNLESS you’re talking about robo calls – which, in my opinion, are not “personal contacts” and are NOT effective! Bottom line: don’t take the Romney campaigns claims for the truth – like the candidate, none of them are to be trusted. It’s all bull@hit!

elw

I agree, they are playing games with the numbers. But then they are quite clear that they have no intension of fact checking anything their campaign says or claims.
jarheadgene

I do the same thing at one of our area call “host” houses. And those that do answer, most times before I can even get to any talking points, or who I am representing, they have said they are voting for Obama. Most calls are call screening….so do I believe the ROMNEY camp is lying about numbers……..HELL YEAH. They are probably considering a ROBOCALL just like their ROBOCandidate to be a REAL call, just like they think him a REAL candidate. Unless they truly have some control over cheating the machines because TAGG owns them in OHIO….Obama has this race won…as long as the DEMS show up to vote.

pawleysisler

WHAT silly way to WRITE something, JARHEAD. Do you think capital letters are impressive? Your comments certainly aren’t.
http://profile.yahoo.com/PGWR5FJ7RRNXYHFIY66BJIFLQ4 Calvin

Is it true TAGG ROMENY owns the voting machines in Ohio? did Obama campaign complain about this or at least file a case in the courts? Ohio is run by a Republican governor, Casey. Last time a Republican governor ran Ohio elections and Bush’s friend, some Boid or Boise owned the elections machines, they together delivered Ohio to Bush in 2004 elections. In that election, exit polls showed Kerry / Edwards ticket won Ohio, but when counted, Bush had the lead…it was the first time in history of US elections that Exit polls and actual polls differred. Go figure! I am very worried, this time around the Republicans will do some cheating like in 2004 to deliver Ohio to Romney. you cannot stop it, because the state’s governor runs the elections. Most of those swing states have Republican governors. So, until I see the actual results, I do not think Obama will win…by the way, in 2008 Ohio governor was Ted Strickland, a Democrat!

poppy66

His name is John Kasich, but I agree with you and this election wont be decided on November the 6th. This will be decided in the courts because the repubs, will cheat by throwing out democratic votes, confuse democratic voters and question every vote from states that Obama wins, especially the swing states, until Romney gets the votes he needs. I think that is despecable. They know they cannot win with a fair and square election. This is going to be like a third world country skewing the votes in their favor. UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Merrysue

I understand your concern but don’t stress out. No need to borrow trouble; there’s plenty of time to be concerned if lots of courts demonstrably throw out lots of ballots which are Democrat, in the swing states. All we can do now is vote, and urge our friends to vote.
And we can trust the Dem lawyers (and conscientious officials, for that matter) to follow up on reports of fraud.
Carol Claytor

Did your mother have any kids that lived?

Bill Tyner

Don’t sweat it. Soros company in Spain is counting votes “our way”. This election is in the bag and we can go back to making silk purses out of sows ears – the perfect job for the 24 million unemployed, the nearly 50 million on food stamps and the 16.3 trillion debt soon to become 20 trillion as our man in the White House finishes off enslaving the next generation with bloated government bureaucracy and debt.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_TT6POTCLZCE74T76WAJIIIUAHU frida

GOP and Fox News are trying hard to plant in peoples mind that there is a momentum while there is none. I do wonder why people are not angry of being fooled. If they have momentum , why don’t they pull out from states they think they have won already. Folks, don’t buy all these lies, stick on voting, especially early voting. There is always a pay off once you cast your vote.

one_veteran

Any one that turns on Fox (no news) wouldn’t know the truth if it were pasted into their ear. I hope Lyin Ryan looses both the elections he is running in! (VP and the Congressional seat he has been keeping luke warm)
jillibrown

c’mon frida – if folks are voting for romney they’re certainly not opposed to or offended by being fooled. I think the rubes actually like being played for fools – why else would they so strongly fight facts?

ObozoMustGo

DISTRACTIONS………… DISTRACTIONS………………………. DISTRACTIONS………

Ignore what these useful idiots are writing about. It’s nothing more than a distraction to keep the focus off of Obozo and his failures. Especially the scandal of Benghazi. Let’s look at some facts:

1) the attack lasted about 8 and 1/2 hours.
2) The 2 SEALS that were killed were not even at the compound, but were at the safe house a mile away. They came to fight and to try to save the ambassador.
3) The SEALS were killed 7 hours AFTER the attack started. These are facts.
4) Obozo and the State Department knew within minutes that the attack was happening
5) Obozo knew within 2 hours that a known terrorist group had claimed responsibility.
6) The military had moved pieces into position and could have been there within 30 minutes to fight back FROM THE START.
7) They were begging for the order to go in, but the orders were never given.
8) A drone flying overhead was beaming live video back to the WH and State Department.

OBOZO WATCHED AS OUR MEN WERE UNDER SIEGE AND WATCHED THEM GET KILLED. AND HE DID NOTHING ABOUT IT. THEN HE BLAMED A VIDEO FOR IT.

You leftist freaks may not like it, but that doesn’t mean that it’s not the truth.

You are supporting a coward that let our men be killed AND DID NOTHING!

You are supporting a coward that let our men be killed and then lied about a stupid video for a month.

You are supporting a coward that thinks you are such fools that he can do anything and you morons will still support him unconditionally.

WTF does it take for you leftist freaks to withdraw your support from this coward? How bad does he have to be before you turn your back on him? WTF is wrong with you people?

Have a nice day!

“The difference between being stupid and being a fool: A stupid person at least has an idea about their own inadequacies. The fool is oblivious to them, and is more inclined to believe their own fantasies and lies as truth.” – ObozoMustGo

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KOPKDFAUQPIIRAFI3HEXNMSHLQ Ed

I assume you got that right from RUSH’s mouth.

ObozoMustGo

Ed… actually no. This information is coming out from lots of sources, except CBS, ABC, NBC, CNN, MSLSD, NY Slimes, Wash. Compost, and the rest of the leftist freak media that is protecting Obozo’s a$$.

Go online and listen to the interviews of Tyrone Wood’s (former SEAL killed in Benghazi) father about his meeting Obozo and Fat Hillary when his son’s coffin came home. Listen to what he says.

Go here and read about the attack from the perspective of the Libyan’s that were working at the consulate:

beforeitsnews(dot)com/opinion-conservative/2012/10/benghazi-according-to-feb-17th-brigade-2509460(dot)html

If you have any objectivity at all, you will be disgusted with Obozo and will not vote for him.

But nice try, Ed. Typical leftist freak Saul Alinsky tactics: when you don’t have the facts on your side, criticize the source. Marginalize and demonize the source. All of you leftist freaks have this pattern down pat.

Have a nice day!

“The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency…Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president.” – Czech Republic newspaper Prager Zeitung

http://twitter.com/yeefunn yeefunn ☜☆☞

So basically, what this bozo guy here is saying, Ed — is that he gets all his information from FOX news.

Oh, and Have a nice day!

ObozoMustGo

typical leftist freak and Saul Alinky follower: when you don’t have the facts, criticize the source. Demonize and marginalize. Clearly, you don’t have the facts.

OBOZO LIED, AMERICANS DIED!!! HE WATCHED AS THEY DIED, AND DENIED GIVING THOSE MEN MILITARY SUPPORT. THEN HE LIED ABOUT A STUPID MOVIE TRAILER TO COVER UP HIS INCOMPETENCE AND COWARDICE. THAT’S WHAT HE DID.

Consider yourself amongst the oblivious.

Have a nice day!

“The difference between being stupid and being a fool: A stupid person at least has an idea about their own inadequacies. The fool is oblivious to them, and is more inclined to believe their own fantasies and lies as truth.” – ObozoMustGo
http://www.facebook.com/people/Jim-Myers/100001512942781 Jim Myers

Replying to ObozoMustGo

Let us make the MISTAKEN assumption that the comments you made about “OBOZO LIED, AMERICANS DIED!!!

What about the WMD that George the Second and Dick Cheney dreamed up in order to start a war in Iraq, which eventually led to our involvement in Afghanistan.

HOW MANY AMERICANS AND IRAQI CITIZENS DIED BECAUSE OF HIS LIES?

The numbers exceed a hundred thousand lives.

The cost of his UNFUNDED wars is measured in the TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

So, no. I do not want to go down the same, albeit enhanced, policies that George the Second started.

As any President does, President Obama made mistakes, and some may have cost lives.

BUT HE HAS NOT DELIBERATELY LIED IN ORDER TO START WARS
THAT PROFIT THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX AND THE POLITICAL POWERS THAT BE.
ObozoMustGo

Jim, uhhhhhh…. newsflash…. this may come as a surprise, but…. uhhhhh…. Bush has been gone for 4 years. You can’t blame him anymore. Besides, Obozo has basically carried out the same policies as Bush did. No denying that. That should piss you off.

But this incident is of a rather disgusting nature when you learn:

1) that we had drones (2 of them now) flying and taking video of the attacks while they happened.
2) The White House was notified within 2 hours of the start that Ansar Al Sharia terror group was claiming responsibility.
3) There was no protest outside that consulate at all.
4) The WH watched for 7 hours from the start of the attack while 2 SEALS that weren’t even at the consulate rushed in to help and fended off attacks while waiting for reinforcements that NEVER came because they were denied clearence to go in.

Jim, forget about Bush. That’s history. This is now, and Obozo sat back and let our men die without sending in support that could have arrived within 30 minutes, and heavy support that could have arrived within a couple of hours of the start.

Jim, at what point does this begin to sicken you? It’s not a political issue. It’s an American issue. Our President prevented reinforcement from helping and 2 former Navy SEALS are dead because of it. It’s that simple. It’s that disgusting.

Please do not go to Obozo friendly media to get the facts. They will not tell you. Go to opposition media and learn. I used to go to MSLSD to learn about Bush because I want to hear the opposing view to get to the truth. You should do the same. Have at least a smidge of objectivity and seek the truth, even if it upsets you.

Have a nice weekend, Jim.

“Based on information that we — our initial information — we saw no evidence to back up claims by others that this was a preplanned or premeditated attack; that we saw evidence that it was sparked by the reaction to this video.” – Jay Carney on Sept 17th responding to questions about what caused the Benghazi attacks on our consulate on 9/11, despite email evidence that shows Obozo knew it was a terrorist attack moments after it started.
sn77339

OMG, it’s always nice to see you in good form, putting us lib freaks in our places. Speaking of cowards, I’m sure that during your regular Old Curmudgeons Club meetings, you guys have had in-depth discussions of Mittie’s draft-dodging escapades in France during VietNam. Now there’s a shining example of fighting for freedom. I’m sure the two people that he converted to the cult during his four years there really appreciated his efforts.
I’m sure also that when Mittie and his neocon pals start the war with Iran, that his five boys will be on the front lines alongside the Cheney’s, Wolfowitz’s, Bolton’s and Bushes, with bayonets at the ready, leading the charge into the massed Iranian hordes.
northroader1775

Just because the voice in your head told you this…doesn’t make it true..

bye bye

northroader1775

Another reputable sorce…now we have to go all the way to the Czech Republic to find anyone who agrees with BOZO and Rush windbag or Faux Noise…people stop arguing with a child and start convincing one person to vote Obama…every vote counts and every vote is needed even if you live in a red state get out and vote Obama..these fools are desparate and must be stomped out entirely ….they are not above cheating..not at all…they are already planning to cheat.

latebloomingrandma

Why don’t you read Newsweek’s write up about what happened?

ObozoMustGo

who is Newsweek? They’re still in business? Not for long. Besides, they are a leftist freak rag just like this septic tank called “The Memo”. They’re running cover for Obozo like MSLSD does.

Have a nice day!

“The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency…Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president.” – Czech Republic newspaper Prager Zeitung

mikecoatl

ANYTHING that contradicts your warped, sick point of view is a “leftist freak rag”.

DON’T have a nice day.

davidfishman2001

Because it probably won’t agree with his beliefs. After all, beliefs are more true than facts.

rpg1408

Your last quote about the difference between being stupid and being a fool applies to you and your blatherings. President Obama inherited a failing economy and ,later, a right-wing Congress determined to prevent any progress in order to ensure that he not be re-elected. The Party of Romney, Ryan, Bachmann, Akins, Mourdock et. al. will be a disaster for this Nation (except for the plutocrats who are attempting to take over). Those who buy into your “hate Obama” drivel will deserve what they get if the GOP steals the election again.
101strac

Hitting all the stops, hey bozo? Still no new material though. Some low life repub steal your book of useless quotes?

jarheadgene

C’mon OBOZO….still quoting the Czech’s also….because they are such bastion of Democracy.

Mike McLaughlin

“WTF does it take for you leftist freaks to withdraw your support from this coward? How bad does he have to be before you turn your back on him? WTF is wrong with you people?”

So, by your own logic, I’m sure you didn’t vote for Bush in his reelection campaign? After all, a heck of a lot more died in his illegal war in Iraq than did in Libya.

skateparksinc

how do the american people can put a man in office who or wont say,what he stand for. are we that dumb, this is what the whole world is watching and beleave me if he get in there there going to be a whole lot of people crying cause this man is clueless to whats going on can u see him standing on the world stage and everyone talking that people in the USA are fool, people get off this color thing that theyre pushing on u cause to be real,they stole it them self, look at the policy and say to yourself do it work for u. anyperson in there right mind would no mit romney program only help him & his rich friends…. so wake up and get someone who knows u.forget all that hater stuff arent we better then that Skate Parks

TZToronto

Is Romney better or worse than Dubya? He pronounces things better, but I’m not sure that the content is any better.

http://profile.yahoo.com/PPHJQFXFPE564LFJPGF3SLP57M orangeman65

I never believe the polls. One thing I do believe that Mitt Romney and the Republican party will try anything to steal this election! Shame on them! They can’t win this election fir and square! They have to result into frauds, trickery and rigging voter machines! That’s not cool! You would think tey’ve learned their lessons after the crap that went down in 200 with the Bush/Gore election!

http://www.facebook.com/people/Jim-Myers/100001512942781 Jim Myers

Replying to orangeman65

They DID learn from the Bush/Gore election. That election was the training camp for the Republicans at the national level.
http://twitter.com/judybz Judith A. Wilson

Been thinking this for quite a while. But the Republicans DID like what went on in 2000, they got the White House. With the internet and all we know more about what’s been going on, but in the years past we did NOT know what went on, like in Florida in 2000. How many people were disenfranchised? I actually think the 2000 election was stolen. And see what it did to the country? Sad.

TZToronto

OK, so now it’s not Obama but rather those who elected him who get the blame for whatever it is that you don’t like. If that’s the case for Obama, it goes double for the fools who elected Dubya twice.
shopper11

Just remember…..you have to vote. The polls may show your candidate leading but he still needs your vote.

http://twitter.com/judybz Judith A. Wilson

We not only want Obama to win the Electoral College, we want him to win the popular vote, too. So even if you are in a predominantly red state, and KNOW that it will go for Romeny, STILL go and vote for Obama. That WILL count in the popular vote!

jcbsdriver

Gee, all these comments and only one republican troll? Funding must be down.
Give up, it’s a losing proposition. Romney is not going to get enough electoral college votes.

Try again in 2016.
http://profile.yahoo.com/PBXE4YGEWDDEIOXSADWPGF3AQY kidraygg

Look, no one more than I wants President Obama to win! That being said,
can anyone here show me that he is in fact, ahead? I will hate waking up
on Nov. 7, just to learn we lost the POTUS, and in my opinion, the hope
of any recovery for America!

northroader1775

Just remember most polls completely marginalize minority voters…but they make up 21% of the electorate and are “Highly Engaged” in this election….basically if you count the Latino vote which leans 71-20 to Obama…the black vote which leans 95-0 Obama..and the female vote which leans 67/20 ISH Obama…there is no mathamatic chance for romney…plus Obama starst with a huge lead in the electoral college with CA NY AND a solid block in ALL of new england…it’s pretty much money and brains vs bible thumping bigots….I’m betting Brains win and I’m betting minorities swing even states that we’re not expecting to side with reality…I am sure it is very difficult to convince latinos that a pasty faced spray tanned lying sack of bullshit is on their team…..VERY DIFFICULT.

elw

They can claim they have monentum all they want. The only thing that counts is who people give their vote to. So if you want Obama to win Vote. If you really want him to win make sure at least one other person you know might not vote – votes as well. That is the final poll of the election and the only one that counts.

http://www.facebook.com/schirmerdon Donald Schirmer

I think Polls are stupid as they only account for a small estimate and nothing more.

elw

And the results only apply to how people felt at the point of time the question was answered.

foolsdance

Yeah!!! OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
foolsdance

Your name is appropriate – you are a scary, pathetic joke.
foolsdance

seems that mitt wits certainly see it that way. no need to research on your own, obozo, or seek out the facts. Just listen to Faux and Rush.
http://www.facebook.com/schirmerdon Donald Schirmer

I think ABC and their polls show they favor Romney-Ryan making Romney a fsvorite with 50% to Obama’s 47 %
MethMouthMary

I sure hope this article is correct and that Romney loses. Go President Obama and VP Biden!

Also note that the races for US Senate and US House are very important. As are state-wide races. Get a sample ballot and figure out who you are going to vote for besides just Obama or Romney!
nomaster

Most likely they are going on the premise that if you read and hear a lie enough times you will believe it and if the media continues to voice this lie repeatedly, maybe some will believe it and coalesce to what they are saying even though it may only be a lie.
Kitalaq

Encouraging news…
Hard to believe any statements of momentum from the group that made their claim that they will not let “fact-checkers”effect their campaign based on “lies”…
Who in her/his right mind would/will entrust the vote for a Commander-In-Chief by a campaign of flip-flops, vague/empty plans, sudden changes of the debate process from repetitions of the far right GOP/TP talking points to moderate positions that are popular Presidential positions in the final debate? America, Our Allies in the United Nations and the World can not Trust/Believe/Rely on the candidate that may suddenly change in the national, international policies according to the wind conditions.
For the above statement… Thank You for all the people involved in getting out the vote for democracy (100% America) over plutocratic Policies that the UltraRich are attempting to buy our democracy!!!! You are the real heroes…

OBAMA/BIDEN2012
Mark_Oliver

Sadly, I am unable to make any sense of our author’s math in this essay.

Our author quotes Nate Cohn’s statement, “every day without signs of Romney making gains in Ohio, Wisconsin, or Nevada counts as a win for the president”. Then Mr. Stattler opines, “Romney needs to win all three of those states to win” … but that is not even remotely the case.

If Mr. Romney wins swing-states FL, NC, VA, IA, CO, & NH that takes him to 267 Electoral Votes.
If the President wins OH, WI & NV, he is re-elected with 271 Electoral Votes.
Consequently, it is correct to say that Gov. Romney cannot LOSE OH, WI & NV — ALL THREE – and still win the election. He does NOT have to win them ALL.

To put it another way, Gov. Romney prevails (will be elected by the House) in the case of a 269 to 269 Electoral Vote tie (as illustrated here).
Romney reaches 269 by winning FL, NC, VA, IA, CO & NV.
Obama reaches 269 by winning OH, WI & NH.
Clearly, then, Gov. Romney can win the election while losing BOTH OH & WI. What, then, can Mr. Sattler mean by asserting that “Romney needs to win all three of those states [OH, WI & NV] to win”? I don’t get it.
tavias51

Romney losing this election, no chit sherlock!!!!
Jack Wormer

“Does Romney really have momentum?”

WHY…YES!

He may be going in circles on issue after issue and with coming up with solution after solution, even for non-existent problems, but no one can deny that Romney has “momentum” – it’s kinda like DELIRIUM on a National Scale and is going nowhere.
daniel bostdorf

Today’s number averages of 12 national polls have Obama approaching the 270 Electoral College necessary….

This game is over.

But you still need to VOTE and make it happen.
http://profile.yahoo.com/IIAFAK62EMBFOLOX76RKHIW7TA Gilbert

That’s right. The Latinos are very important. Latinos need to feel like they are included. I grew-up in a Latino neighborhood in New York. Latinos are very much a part of what is happening there.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KCS3Y6VPV2ZQPEWGGZLPSKQI7M Maynard

The Romney ace in the sleeve is the voting machines. In 2004, the exit polls indicated a Kerry victory. However, Mike Connell, the electronic voting machine guru, had the votes channelled through Tennessee, where the results were altered. We were stuck with four more years. In a court investigation Connell was subpoenaed to testify. His lawyer filed a brief with the court stating Connell feared Karl Rove. Sure enough, just before landing at an airport, his private plane blew up, killing him. The case went nowhere after that.
Could it happen similarly again? Unfortunately, yes. Billions of dollars are at stake in the tax breaks for the rich, the removal of the support programs for the middle class and the probable war with Iran.
Peacenik Mitt at the last debate, was very disconcerting to me. We know Mitt. He’ll say anything if he has a motive. His motive is to lull the public into complacency to get their votes and cover his intentions. When he’s firmly entrenched with his experienced Bush administration neo-CONS , there will be a false flag event, and the public will rush to their best impersonation of patriotism. Many of them are already of the kill ‘em first, let God sort ‘em out mentality. They’ve been programmed to think our government would never lie when it comes to slaughtering our own sacrificial lambs (Big Mistake) and the Muslims are the devil incarnate.
That will be it. Our severely weakened system, which is just starting to recover, will collapse again. Sorry to be so negative, but this is why we need a cushion to make the theft look obvious. Unfortunately, the cushion is not very substantial.
ECassious2

I said this 8 weeks ago, and I will say it again. Romney wins this election, and it is not even close. It absolutely will not be close.

mikecoatl

It won’t be close if you believe Dean Chambers. And you do, since you’re apparently fool enough to believe anything.

highpckts

I sincerely hope he has lost!!!

grkorbel

People are beginning to get the magnitude of the Benghazi breach of trust.

As an aside, for years, I have been saying any poll that begins with “If the election were held today.. .” was founded on a laughable hypothetical.

Six weeks ago could anyone see that the worst storm to assault the Eastern seaboard in 100 years would dramatically alter the strategies of both campsin the most important moments of the campaign. Imagine being in the Super Bowl and both teams lose their starting quarterbacks in a tie game inside the two-minute warning–and their kickers?

The decisions made on the fly right now about where to campaign and run ads may determine the outcome.

Six weeks ago could anyone see the administration reacting so incomprehensibly incompetently and deceptively by refusing to be candid with the American people about an Act of War that killed American citizens on foreign soil and its potential impact on the election?

What will be the effect on the election if Sandy results in large areas of the East Coast being declared disater areas and the final week of the campaign is 24-7b coverage of the disater which permits, unlike prime-time broadcasting, unlimited polical ads?

Did Obama plan on Romney having $120,000,000 to seed his message in between scenes of Atlantic City being flooded?

Shakespeare wrote in Julius Caesar:

“Are not you moved, when all the sway of earth
Shakes like a thing unfirm? O Cicero,
I have seen tempests, when the scolding winds
Have rived the knotty oaks, and I have seen
The ambitious ocean swell and rage and foam… .”

IamJim

Here is the sad reality. Whichever candidate wins, that man will only be leading half the country. The other half is convinced, maybe rightfully, that their opponents despise and dismiss them and their concerns. Neither side is even remotely inclusive of anybody who disagrees with them. We are not a country anymore, we are not a people anymore. Truly a sad condition we have built for ourselves.

grkorbel

This has been the case since Gore lost it in 2000. That was the beginning of vitriolic, liberal radio that flooded the airwaves with pathological liberal hatemongerers like Randy Rhodes and Al Franken and turned Chris Matthews and Kewith Oberman into pathetically
paranoid characteractures.

Gambler2

You are too funny. Radio is dominated by right-wing hate mongers and has been ever since they threw the fairness doctrine out the window. None of the people you mentioned in your post spread hate like Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck who are both totally insane.
me987654

Actually it is almost all due to the rise of Fox News and right wing radio. It’s an absolute fact that a large percentage of right wingers simply believe in a bunch of things that aren’t true; basically living in a fantasy world

ECassious2

57% of the early voting for Dems are people who have voted in 3/4 of the last elections. Only 27% of the early republican votes have voted in 3/4 of the past elections. The dems are cabibalizing their base early on.

Gambler2

And you know this because? Source please?
hilbuk

For argument’s sake I’ll believe you (in spite of there being no source.)

I still think to call it “cannibalizing their base” is a bit ridiculous. No, the democrats are TURNING OUT their base. Then their base can use the rest of their time on GOTV efforts for the less likely voters leading up to and on Nov 6th. Or they can sit around and do nothing…but regardless, they’ve voted.

Given the gigantic democratic advantage so far in early voting, I don’t doubt that republicans will have the advantage on Nov 6th. No one is actually claiming that Ohio is going to be 66% Obama and 33% Romney in the end, even though those are the numbers for early voting so far. Romney will surely turn out voters on election day, and Obama will surely not have as many to turn out because so many will have voted. I think the reason we democrats are pointing out the early voting advantage is that it still says something…first of all, it is a very large advantage. Second, these are banked, completed votes.

Finally…running your numbers (57% vs 27%) against the 2-1 Ohio advantage for democrats, that still leaves more new/less-likely democrat voters than new/less-likely republican voters voting early in aggregate. (Take 66 democrat votes, and 33 republican votes, representing the 2-1 advantage. Multiply 66 by .43 to get 28.3 votes per 100 that are democrats NOT having voted in at least 3 of the last 4 elections. Then multiply 33 by .73 to get 24.1 votes per 100 that are republicans NOT having voted in at least 3 of the last 4 elections. 28.3 > 24.1.

ECassious2

The source comes out everyday from about 10 different polls. I appreciate what you wrote, but the real reason the democrats are touting early voting is because they want the appearance the have momentum, and it simply does not exist. It is like the guy making 10.00 an hour who gets paid every week telling the guy who makes 100k a year but gets paid monthly that he has made more money than him that month. This is true for 29 out of the 30 days.

Leftcoastrocky

Please check out the endorsement for Obama from the Salt Lake Tribune (as in Utah — that bastion of liberal anti-Mormonism).

“In considering which candidate to endorse, The Salt Lake Tribune editorial board had hoped that Romney would exhibit the same talents for organization, pragmatic problem solving and inspired leadership that he displayed here more than a decade ago. Instead, we have watched him morph into a friend of the far right, then tack toward the center with breathtaking aplomb. Through a pair of presidential debates, Romney’s domestic agenda remains bereft of detail and worthy of mistrust.

Therefore, our endorsement must go to the incumbent, a competent leader who, against tough odds, has guided the country through catastrophe and set a course that, while rocky, is pointing toward a brighter day. The president has earned a second term. Romney, in whatever guise, does not deserve a first.”
grkorbel

When in doubt quote Nate Silver–the last resort of the desperate lib. Silver has been made the Guru of polling modeling based on ONE–that;’s right ONE national election. Tihs I know about Silver: he does not desend from pig farmers because they know that even a blind pig will stumble on some corn.

So, who is Silver? A former baseball statistician who has displayed a novices lack of modeling despite the quasi-scoentific tone his tone takes.

Silver, for instance (and I’d bet my last dollar on this does not know anythiong about “ensemble modeling” which is what mets are currently using to predict the track of Sandy. The key to ensemble modelling is to make slight variations in input of your model, repeat model runs with using a different variable or change in magnitude on each run and see if your model gives consistent results.

Silver claims ” while Romney’s numbers improved after the first debate, he never had much if any momentum in the states that matter”.

This is essentially an admission that while Silver believes himself to be an authority on modelling he has a lot to learn from meteorologusts whose data is used in moving 2,000,000 people daily safely on airlines.

Perhaps if he had created a model, tweaked to the point of completion, and then engaged in ensemble modelling he would see slight variations in initial conditions often result in large variations of outcome.

Has Silver plugged into his model the possibility the hypothetical of republicans having a 3-pt advantage in party affiliation?

Romney enjoying a theoretical 10+ advantage with independents?

Republicans having a projected split of the woman’s vote?

No.
No.
No.

His model assumes a greater turnout from democrats, Obama getting the lion’s share of the woman’s vote, and a smaller advantage for Romney among independents–and every run of his model employs the same given.

Put simply, Silver merits a Ph.D in junk science. He is shill for Obama whose job is to construct a mathematical narrative, trot it out in the NYT and have it reported as journalism. In a sense he is making news for the left and not reporting it.

That is grossly unethical but to be expected from a political hired gun.

hilbuk

Wow…you are insane. Silver has proven to be accurate in the 2008 and 2010 elections as well as in his baseball predictions for many years prior. It’s true that he only has the one national election as experience, but he made predictions about every single state in that election. The only one he called wrong was Indiana, but that’s because he called it as a tie ultimately going to McCain, and it was a tie that ultimately went to Obama…so his prediction was within about 1% still. He predicted the other states very closely as well. The only ones I recall he missed the margin by more than a few points were ones with little polling (i.e. strongly blue or strongly red states, so who cares anyway….)

He uses data from national elections in decades past, economic data, favorability ratings, demographics, traditions of the state, voter behavior in other elections, and all sorts of other non-polls data. He uses almost every poll but also evaluates the polls based on how accurate and precise they have been in the past, as well as how they conduct their polling (calling vs. mail, real people vs. robots, cell phones included or not, etc.) The most rigorous polls are rated better. Unlike other democrat-leaning prediction sites, he doesn’t have some odd vendetta against Rasmussen, even though Rasmussen is consistently more republican in its predictions than other pollsters. Nate includes them and weights them pretty highly.

To answer your questions:

“Has Silver plugged into his model the possibility the hypothetical of republicans having a 3-pt advantage in party affiliation?”
He uses whatever the polling firms find…so if this is possibly true then it’s in the model already….

“Romney enjoying a theoretical 10+ advantage with independents?”
Again, if the polling firms have been finding this (and how else would you know it to be true?) then it is in Nate’s model. He also includes things like undecided independents breaking toward the challenger in the final days, even though that goes against an Obama win. It’s in there already. Personally I doubt that Romney’s advantage is 10 pts in independents, but again, if this is firmly the case, it’s in Nate’s model. He also re-runs the model given certain hypotheticals here and there. So if there are rumors of things like a 10+ advantage among independents for Romney, Nate will re-run the model with that finding to see how it shakes out, even if Nate’s numbers show, say, a 3 pt advantage.

“Republicans having a projected split of the woman’s vote?”
If any polls actually found this then he’d account for it in the model…but polls say the gender gap is still robust as it has been in the past. (And see the response to the independents issue above.)

It sounds like you’re pointing to a few findings that have come out of a few select polls with regard to party affiliation, independents, and women. Other polls that you have likely ignored or never saw found different results (I’m thinking about the women’s vote at the very least, because I have seen some huge ranges of results on this front.) I am more sure than anything that Romney will NOT get 50% of the women’s vote (he will get less.)

Nate is about as accurate and objective as you can get. Sometimes I find his narratives to be a little liberal-leaning, but his numbers are not biased. He’s also transparent about his methods and how heavily different factors are weighed, so you don’t have to leave wondering whether something was counted or not, and by how much.
me987654

Um, Silver is reporting what the polls are saying.. and historically the polls are almost always right when they agree. The massive number of Ohio polls put together put Obama up 2-3 points at least… which is pretty much insurmountable at this point

Gambler2

OBAMA/BIDEN 2

aeduran

DREAM ON!

frankelee

Oh my God you guys! We’re literally so close to this election being over that the blogs have started to admit what the polls are showing! Next will come newspaper websites, followed by cable news op/ed shows, and finally ten minutes before the President holds his victory speech CNN.
Timberallen

In the Sentence “Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. ” it should be President Obama has held the lead, and not Mr. for he is still President last time I checked. Thanks just a minor correction is needed.
jayross495

It is despicable that some Media personnel and GOP members are so comfortable with the dishonesty. That is so scary! It is clear that the media is in on the poll scamming to paint a false optic for Romney’s benefit. Media personnel, especially on CNN, concluded that people support the person who appears to be winning.

With respect to the voting machine, if the Ohio voting machine is owned by the Romneys’ and we already know Mitt’s propensity for twisting the truth, Heaven help this election and Heaven help America. The ugly truth is that if Mitt wins this election, it will be because of all the behind the scenes dirty tactics, and the GOP will try to distort President Obama’s place in America’s history with Mitt taking credit for all the ground work that President Obama accomplished even in-spite of no GOP support in his first term.
aeduran

Rasmussen Poll in Ohio

Romney 50
Obama 48

So if the election is the one that matters, well then it looks like Romney is actually winning.

Sorry, Jason!
Eugene Bowden

if mitt[the dog]romney gets elected then the world will know what a damn lier he really is,he has never told the truth right from the beginning .if the voters think and believe he can fix all he say’s in just a short or even a long period of time then the voters are bigger fools then i give them credit for,,,,what a dumb bunch the republicans are…….
http://www.facebook.com/john.klegkasr John Klegka Sr

Note all voters in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio Wisconsin: With all those polls out there, just flip a coin to see who you think is ahead. It’s all guess work and everyone has his/her own opinion. Just similar to all those polls, each one of which favor their favorite candidate. Forget the polls, the numbers, the percentages and just go and vote early. If not early do so on 6 November. And, remember The Party of No with lies, lies and promises, promises on the campaign trail with no specifics from where funds will come is definitely not the way to cast your vote. Romney boasts of his experience of creating jobs, cutting the deficit and fixing social security; the latter of which is not broken and does not need fixing. He is not the candidate to carry America foward. So, be sure to vote and vote for Obama/Biden, the candidates who stand for you and above all good for America.
Waldo

and don’t take the D+8 poll numbers for the truth, either.

dream on and keep your tinfoil hats on straight.
http://www.facebook.com/cleatus.howe Cleatus W Howe

Obama is a complete Failure,Obama Care is for the Big Insurance Companies,and the Cost will only go up!Illegals are having Thousands of Babies in this Country,(raising the cost up)and over loading the Schools!Obama has the DOJ,to sues any States,that tries to protect its Borders!
http://www.facebook.com/people/Ted-Reading/100001058329488 Ted Reading

Obscurity beckons for this tiresome nonentity.
http://twitter.com/flossiefloo catherine isom

I do not understand my your article states ‘Mr Obama’.. Surely that should be ‘President Obama’ as he is still in fact POTUS?
jan cooper

JESUS CHRIST WIL BE DIRECTION WAR ATTACK SATAN OBAMA GOVERMENT WORLD ATTACK SATAN OBAMA GOVERMENT…
truthisreal

DELCOGATE: Ann Romney fronted Mitts financial involvement in making millions at the expense of 25000 auto workers employed by Delco.His vulture capital friend Paul Singer made over three billion dollar and has been Mitt Romneys biggest financial backer. They took their millions and shipped it to their favorite Tax Haven in the Channel Islands. Now you know what Romney is like..not interested in the 47% ..not interested in the auto industry…only interested in continuing his dishonest practices of making money by having peoples jobs lost.
Far3away

Mr. Mitt Romney’s only real intention to win in this election, is obviously to take the White House back. Not the people’s interest, Not the country’s well-being, but to make sure OBAMA will be unseated from power. Mr Romney obviously has demonstrated that he will say ANYTHING, do anything , embrace anything , provided that it leads to his election. What an arrogant person this Mitt is. The Americans are intelligent voters who exactly know that arrogance should never be allowed to prevail. We pray for world peace, and this is exactly why we are interested to know the kind of person the President of the United States be. World peace is achieved not thru sheer arrogance. We pray that Obama will win, not only for America but PEACE for the whole world.

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