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Thursday, October 20, 2016

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New polling shows a lot of conflicting data with the president’s approval around a two-year low and congressional disapproval at or near an all-time high. But one thing is clear: There are fewer and fewer people identifying as Republicans in America.

While identification with the Democratic Party is just 1 percent or so lower than it was when President Obama was re-elected, Republican Party ID has gone down from 29.1 percent of Americans polled to 23.3 percent.

What could the GOP possibly be doing to alienate people?

Could it be threatening a government shutdown? Making a hero out of George Zimmerman? Saying that 99 percent of undocumented young people are drug dealers? Running a Cheney? Defining success by all the repeals that they don’t pass?

No one can be sure. But that red line certainly isn’t showing the steady rise it did before the 2010 election.

Other points:

What do you do when everybody hates Washington, D.C.? Pretend you don’t work there. The GOP’s plan for the summer of 2013 is to bash what the nation’s capital represents to most voters, basically acting like they have no connection to it. Some say the reason Republicans like to be elected is to make even Democrats hate the government.

Obamacare’s polling numbers have always been complicated by the fact that many Americans would prefer a much more liberal single-payer health care system. A new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll finds that more funding for Obamacare is nearly as popular as repealing the law: “Given the choice to either repeal the law, wait and see how it takes effect, or add money to aid its implementation, only 36 percent of adults picked outright repeal. More than half chose to either wait and see (30 percent) or provide more money (27 percent).”

Abortion rights are under assault more and more each year since 1995, as this chart from NARAL shows. Republicans know they don’t have public support for overturning Roe v. Wade so they focus on restrictions on clinics and bans after a certain point in a pregnancy, despite the fact that arguments for doing either are weak.

Scott Walker is a Republican hero for one reason: his plan to kill his state’s public sector unions is working. But it certainly didn’t help the economy.

There’s lots of talk about how badly Democrats need Hillary Clinton. The same is as or more true for Republicans and Chris Christie.

What’s on your mind? What are you reading?

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Copyright 2013 The National Memo
  • gmccpa

    Most of us here can take great joy in the demise of the present day Republican party. (they were not always this crazy) But our joy will be short lived if we wake up in Nov 2014 with both a Republican House and Republican Senate. This remains a very real possibility.

    So, unless the LOL turns into votes on that election day…the joke will be on us. The response to their craziness MUST be parlayed into votes. Really, nothing else matters…polls, articles, indignation, whatever…if the turnout is low, its all meaningless and the Repubs will win.

    • abby725

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    • Dane Calderon

      Odds are actually very strong for the GOP to get the Senate and keep the House. Its effin’ scary times.

      • angelsinca

        Almost as scary as a Democrat-held House and Senate, but not quite. That little 2 yr jaunt only cost us about $3T and one deeply flawed ‘signature’ healthcare scheme. My friends in England won’t stop bitching about their National Health Service. Worse, they won’t stop snickering about the Americans falling into the same trap. Scary.

      • Kenny

        They will stay strong until the next census. Whoever controls state legislators during the census year can redraw voting district lines. The next census is scheduled for 2020. Democrats and Progressives will be ready.

        • Kenny

          Democrats have to get fired up for every single election. City, State, Congressional, Senate, Presidential. Educate, organize, protest. Apathy and complacency is not the answer. Take the fight to the enemy and make no mistake the Republican/Tea Party and their corporate masters are the enemy. They are the greatest threat facing our country today. If we don’t defeat them, they will defeat us. Failure is not an option.

  • angelsinca

    The problem with ‘borrowing’ a biased trend map from a liberal-biased source like the Huff Post is that the left spin becomes even more obvious. When you look at ALL the data from a pollster like Rasmussen (or even the chart above), it appears all are distancing themselves from their own party. LOL. Those calling themselves Republicans, including ‘leaners’ is the same as it was in 2007. The continual drop of those identifying as Democrat seems to remain on steady decline and less now than it was in Nov 2008. Surprising trend, especially with a Democrat leader.

    • MikeInAlabama

      But not particularly surprising, given the Republican-biased Rasmussen.

      • angelsinca

        But of course. When the liberal diagrees with the results/verdict, it doubts the data/evidence. I questioned doubted the presentation by the author here that supports a claim that Republicans are fleeing their party. They aren’t, actually. They might by shy about identifying themselves as republican because when they do, they are summarily attacked by the left.

        • MikeInAlabama

          It was kind of you to prove your own assertion in believing Rasmussen. Thanks!

          • angelsinca

            Whatever, Mike. When you are ready to put aside the games of logic and ridicule, I’ll be glad to discuss.

        • embo66

          So . . . let me get this straight: You are asserting that Republicans haven’t become disenchanted / left their party at all. They are now just “shy” about identifying themselves as such for fear of being “attacked” by the left, even in a poll. (Presumably that leftist pollster must be really nasty to make such bravely braying people so scared!)

          However . . . a more conservative polling firm recently found very similar results to HuffPost’s:

          And what to do with Commentary’s comment?

          I think you need to try a little harder there, angel.

          • angelsinca

            Thanks embo66. The Gallup offering confirms what I mentioned earlier; at 40% id’ing themselves as republican and the same as it was in 2007, those aligning themselves as democrat in ’07 (under Bush) was in the min 50’s, where now it is only in the mid 40’s.

            Where have all the DEMOCRATS gone?

          • embo66

            Your earlier post about all party affiliation declining is well-taken. I imagine that some majority of us Americans (myself included) are 1) not terribly partisan to begin with and 2) more reluctant than ever to affiliate with one political party because neither of them is very responsive to the needs of the average person. [This is increasingly due, IMHO, to all the hundreds of millions of dollars corrupting our politics, period.]

            In fact, the continued growth of “independents” has been remarked on by many; people have soured on both parties. The only problem here is that when it comes time to vote, there is no “Independent” candidate, just someone from either of the two established parties.

            But regardless . . . You really ought to be ashamed of yourself for cherry-picking the ONE poll result out of over 100 which shows Dem affiliation hitting an all-time high of 40 — and then claiming a huge loss in affiliation since. [We could certainly do same of Repubs by cherry-picking their peak of 39 during the 3rd week of September 2004 and howl about their subsequent demise all the way down to 25.]

            Truth of the matter is that Dem affiliation has held a fairly steady average of around 32-33% for years; more often than not it is above 30 — and this has held true no matter which party holds the White House, etc. GOP affiliation, on the other hand, has essentially — and quite literally — been in general decline ever since that magic “39” moment in 2004.

            This is not personal, angel dear; this is what the Gallup numbers are saying.

          • angelsinca

            Much to agree with. But the bit about cherry-picking data? No. That table was one of two visited before posting. Thanks.

          • embo66

            BTW, I don’t include — as you apparently do — the “leaners.” This is about affiliation, not maybes. (Though those last two columns comparing GOP leaners and Dem leaners is interesting; wonder how well that tracks to actual election results at those points in time?)

      • Robert Jensen

        Rasmussen? He still doesn’t poll cell phones. If you are a senior, have a landline only phone, live in a southern state and if your caller ID says unidentiifed and if you answer the phone anyway.. You might be an older white man who thinks President Obama is a secret Kenyan born Mooslim out to destroy the American way of life.

    • goosh69

      The “liberal” trend map is actually a pure mathematical average of lots of polls. It includes Rasmussen and Fox and WSJ polls in the average along with the rest.

    • Kenny

      Please keep thinking that way. Seeing the GOP self destruct makes my day. Their demise will make the country stronger and better.

      • angelsinca

        With Democrats now in full control of the WH, the Senate, Homeland Security, the IRS, the EPA, the DOJ, the State Dept, the military, and most federal and state agencies for over four years now, we can rest, assured in knowing everything is under control. Lol. SNAFU, again.

    • Steven Colo

      Rasmussen was discredited after predicting a landslide win for Romney in 2012 despite all other sources except Gallup disagreeing.

  • doninsd

    I heard the elephants in the national zoo are wearing disguises, and petitioning to be allowed to go home.

  • Kenny

    More white Americans are dying than being born for the first time in modern history – suggesting minorities and newcomers will play an important role in fueling the population growth America’s recovering economy needs to thrive. Sen. Lindsey Graham: Republicans ‘not generating enough angry white guys.’ 50,000 Hispanic citizens turn 18 and become eligible to vote every month. 93% of Black, 71% Hispanic, 73% Asian, 60% people under 30, 55% women voted for President Obama 2012. Romney won 59% of white votes – the biggest majority by any presidential candidate in U.S. history that failed to win White House. Republican/Conservatives have nobody to blame but themselves. Things are only going to get worse if they don’t reach out to minorities, women and young people.

    • embo66

      Or concentrate on making sure those minorities actually GET a decent education and a general leg up in society.

      Because one doomsday scenario would be seeing that new majority of our total national population — those Hispanics and African Americans, etc. — NOT better their current levels of educational attainment and income. The entire nation would suffer accordingly in another generation or two, as the U.S. plummets behind the developed world on most outcomes.

      • Kenny

        I agree. All children regardless of race should be given a decent education. But it’s gonna take leaders from both sides of the aisle to put aside their differences and work together for the good of the nation. Red States Mississippi, West Virginia, Louisiana are some the worse states for children. But their leaders continue to gut public education. That’s totally unacceptable to me and it should be to conservatives. Our leaders need to start doing their damn jobs and we should hold them accountable if they don’t.

  • stevefranklin54

    It’s absurd to ask where the Republicans are. They are the majority in the House of Representatives. They are the majority of the governors of the ten most populated states. The GOP is widely expected to add to its caucus in next year’s Senate elections. And five of the nine Supreme Court Justices are Republican-appointees.
    The Republicans are winning on the abortion question. They have beaten back even the most modest gun control proposal. They have beaten public employee unions time and again. And thanks to their majority on the Supreme Court, they will be imposing new voter ID laws making it more difficult for Democratic supporters to vote.
    And please understand: I voted for Obama and hope to vote for Hillary. But facts are facts.

    • Patterman

      Correct. This is an interesting graphic, but what the hell difference does it make when Republicans are managing to keep a stanglehold on our 18th century constitutionally gerry-rigged system of governance?