Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.
Sunday, October 23, 2016

On Monday, major nationwide polls including Gallup, Rasmussen, and Reuters/Ipsos showed President Obama ahead of Republican challenger Mitt Romney by four or five points. The Democratic Convention and Bill Clinton’s superlative speech there evidently achieved everything the Republican Convention did not, firing up voters and providing a sustained, nerve-calming boost for the Obama campaign.

Moreover, for the first time since April, the Obama campaign outraised Mitt Romney, $114 million to $110 million, in August .

Scrambling to spin the latest polls, the Romney campaign sent out an e-mail yesterday urging voters not to become “too worked up about the latest polling” and attributed the numbers to “a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions.” It should be noted, however, that no such sugar-high followed the Republican Convention, which surveys showed had “minimal impact” on voters’ persuasions. The bump that the GOP had hoped to see was statistically insignificant, and dissipated soon after.

Conversely, the Obama campaign is enjoying its moment in the sun, with the latest CNN poll giving the Democratic candidate a six-point lead over Romney. As CNN notes, ” convention bounces have become increasingly modest in the 21st century, so much so that Obama’s four-point boost is considered high compared to other candidates in the last eight years.”

Nate Silver’s number-crunching places Obama firmly in the front-runner position, with an 80.7 percent chance of winning the election. The New York Times analyst forecasts a total of 318.8 electoral votes going to Obama, versus 219.2 for Romney. Silver notes that at no point in the past year has Romney held a significant lead over Obama, an unusual fact considering past elections and the traditional back-and-forth sway between candidates:

Very little has moved the polls much all this year — including Mr. Romney’s convention and his choice of Paul D. Ryan as his running mate, events that typically produce bounces. But Mr. Obama has already made clear gains in the polls in surveys that only partially reflect his convention.

As surprising as it might be, however, I do not see how you can interpret it as anything other than a good sign for Mr. Obama. All elections have turning points. Perhaps Mr. Obama simply has the more persuasive pitch to voters, and the conventions were the first time when this became readily apparent.

The post-convention bounce has carried over well in battleground states like Ohio, where the latest PPP poll shows Obama up by five points. In North Carolina, another key swing state, the race remains virtually deadlocked with a 49-48 lead for Obama, as another PPP poll indicates.

Unfortunately for the Romney campaign, hoping to capitalize on a disappointing August jobs report, voters seem to view the 2012 election as a choice between Obama and Romney, rather than a referendum on the economy and the President’s first term in office, a survey conducted by The Hill shows. Only 34 percent of voters regard the election as a judgement on Obama’s job performance. The president’s high likeability rating, contrasting with Romney’s low personal ratings, are apparently helping him, too.

Photo Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster


Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2012 The National Memo
  • ryueire

    It’s a matter of who is more trustworthy. It seems ludicrous Romney is even still in the race considering he has not made his tax returns available, a 10 year income history, a practice that was started by his own father.
    No one really gives a damn how much money he makes, or how little in tax he pays…. As long as what he has done is legal. Maybe the reason too is the profits he made has a history of tearing down american manufacturing plants and lost jobs.

    • old_blu

      It’s mostly because of Romney picking Ryan, and because of their new campaign slogan.

      We’re rich and white so ef you.

      Obama/Biden 2012

      • I agree. Picking Ryan may have fired up the base, but it turned off many moderate Republicans and most Independents.

        • old_blu

          Yep, the same thing McCain did when he picked Palin they have to cow down to the Tea Party, and I think that is what made McCain lose, (IMHO) and will do the same for Romney.

    • I don’t think people are concerned whether or not Romney’s tax returns show whether he did something illegal or not. I don’t think he did anything illegal. What they will show is the big gap between what the rich pay and what the rest of us pay. He probably does not want people comparing 14% with 31%.

      • Do you mean the 14% he paid “after” the 39% he paid when he earned it? Quit buying into all the class-warfare. People like us don’t pay “anything in taxes” when we make capital gains on a home. By the way, I don’t remember Liberals screaming about how much money John Kerry had, or JFK, or the 11 Million Obama made since becomming President?

        • plznnn, Romney, himself, said he paid about 14% taxes all the time. He also said he paid what was legal and no more. Why don’t you teabaggers learn to read and listen to something beside the station started by an English billionaire who is being investigated in two countries?

        • old_blu

          John Kerry released 20 years of his taxes, and I don’t care how much Romney has just what he paid in taxes. Was it the 33% that I paid? NO!

        • Dave_dido

          If you are trying to say that Mitt Romney paid taxes twice on the same money, you’d better call Fox News or Rush Limbaugh and ask them to explain that one to you again.
          See, in the first place, Romney has never paid 39% on his income. Much of his income is from capital gains which are taxed lower than ordinary income. That’s why the system, as it currently stands,favors the wealthy who earn their money differently than working people do. So Romney only pays around 14% of his total income, which includes capital gains, ordinary income, investment income, etc. minus his deductions(which also favor the wealthy,btw) Warren Buffet’s secretary, and many other working class people, pay close to 30%. That’s why many of us complain about the deck being stacked in favor of the wealthy.
          Now, you’re saying that Romney paid an additional 14% on his investments “after the 39% he paid when he earned it”. This tells me you mistakenly think he gets his paycheck, pays 39%, then invests that money and pays another 14% on it. Not. Remember, he doesn’t pay 39% on anything. On his investments he only pays tax on the interest that the investment earns, not on the principle in the investment. He is not being double-taxed.

          No one is screaming about how much money Romney makes. That is a Republican myth that has no basis in reality.Just like the Republican myth that Dems want to do away with God somehow(if anyone wants to do away with God, it’s the extreme right wing who have mangled God into a thing that’s so disfigured we can hardly recognize it anymore). We are upset about the system that allows Mitt Romney to pay a much lower percentage than the rest of us and then, to make matters worse, he has to hide large portions of it offshore and pay even less. Now that’s someone who believes in America!

      • NorthboroughDan

        Correct. Mittons does not want to see all the sleazy, yet legal, tools he uses to pay little-no taxes. Hard to believe so many voters do not understand the extra special treatment the 1% (and especially the 0.1%) get.

  • Our ability to raise more funds than the GOP in August tell me that the arrogance of power can be defeated by the common man, that Democrats are committed to fight for our Constitutional, Civil, and human rights; that we reject a philosophy that advances and protects the enrichment of a few at the expense of many; that the words freedom and democracy are not empty metaphors; and that Republicans are increasingly recognizing they nominated the wrong man.
    Could it be that some Republicans are so disgusted by what they see and hear that they decided to sit this one out, or could it be that they finally realized that their “solutions” will affect them as much as they will affect the rest of us? Yes, I know, the latter is an expectation as illusory as a mirage in the middle of Death Valley…

    • William Carr

      Well, there have been some online articles from former Republicans who awakened to realize their Party was heartless, cold and controlled by NeoCon lunatics.

      Some of them have realized the Republican Party left them behind in the Lemming-like rush to the Right.

    • WOW, when Romney raised more money the last 3 months, you people cried that “those rich Republicans” have more money, but now that Obama raised more, hey, fine! You don’t even see how hypocritical and full of spin you are.

      • AlphaPlus

        No moron, you miss the point, apparently because your feeble mind has poor reading comprehension… I’m guessing you scored pretty low in that on the SATs(if you even took the SATs), and probably low in the math section too if you still believe Romney/Ryan’s plans will balance the budget. The article is pointing out that despite the fact that Romney has raised so much money throughout the campaign, despite the fact that he has all the greediest, wealthiest donors supporting him, Obama still outraised him following the conventions, and that goes to show that he got a big convention bounce because a bigger proportion (not all, I can already hear you crying about the Hollywood liberal elites donating to Obama!) of Obama’s donations come in small amounts from average middle income Americans. The boost he got is the point, and nobody at any point in this article or discussion forum conceded that now it is ok to have unlimited $ in politics because Obama outraised Romney for one month. Get a clue you schlep!

  • neece00

    Woohoo, it is going to be a good day! We are ahead.

    • B

      Ahead of what, you idiot? Ahead of stupidity? Yeah that’s it stupidity. If you have an I phone of I pad you are definitely an idiot. The is what the I stands 4.

      • tandbla

        neeceoo probably meant ahead of you. Ahead of an increasingly loathed minority of US Americans, that think hurling invectives is a way to earn confidence and win elections.

        Had US voting laws been like the rest of the developed world, 80-90 percent had voted, instead of 50 % or even less, and you would have been an even smaller minority.

  • johninPCFL

    Karl Rove was on O’Reilly last night saying Romney didn’t get his convention bounce because the Democratic convention was too close in the timeline. Seems the news organizations didn’t have enough time to trumpet Romney’s name before being tied up in Carolina.

    Personally, I think Eastwood would still have been the topic of conversation. The rest of the speakers were forgettable, maybe except for Ann Romney. For her first convention speech she did well. Of course, Christie came in after her and blew it up, but that’s what he does.

  • i have an idea why Romney would elaborate on any of his plans.
    he is waiting for copy right licencing, because he is afraid that Obama might
    steal his ideas like know one has to protect one ideas to maximize returns.

    • William Carr

      That’s actually funny… because the HealthCare Mandate was a Republican Idea, and RomneyCare came out of the Heritage Foundation too.

      Of course, 1/2 of the Countries in the top 138 have mandatory Insurance, so it wasn’t a NEW idea.

      If Romney HAS any good ideas, I’d think he would be better off sharing them with the Voters, though. This IS a job interview. No sense holding back when your competition is ahead of you.

  • onedonewong

    If the polls publish an anti barak poll they can expect a visit from the Attorney General and a lawsuit

    • William Carr

      If a pollster contracts with the Government and over-bills them for the time, they can expect a Whistle-Blower to alert the authorities and the Government to join the investigation.

      It has nothing to do with being pro or against Obama.

      • onedonewong

        The so called “investigation” didn’t start until AFTER the Gallup released a poll showing Romney ahead

    • One, just when I think you can’t get any more stupid, you prove me wrong.

      • onedonewong

        Guess you haven’t been watching the problems tha Gallup is having with Holder and barak

  • pleiku1965

    I think Romney did pick the wrong man. Ron Paul would have been better, but I think the military industrial complex wanted nothing to do with him. Paul was going to (rightly) cut the Pentagon war horse 50%.

    Romney was said to have wanted to give them more than they asked for. Where are Romney’s investments?

    • old_blu

      He should have picked Condalisa Rice, but I heard she said no.

  • Landsende

    At the bottom of this page is an ad to stand/donate to Michele Bachmann. REALLY???? Maybe the tea baggers on this site like Onedonewrong will donate to her. After all, she and her husband believe you can “pray away the gay” although it didn’t work for her husband. But hey, he’s married to a teabagger so they’ll overlook it.

  • bcarreiro

    Obama puts the ass in class.:-)

  • B

    Gary Johnson wins by a landslide, Freedoms Wins!!!! Nah there is to much fraud and to many idiots in America. The Fascists win again. The idiots are so, so without brain cells they don’t know when they get F**ked.

  • willardcottrell

    “convention bounces have become increasingly modest in the 21st century,”

    What will the effect of the recent lies and smirks of mitt do to his credibility next week? This clown is the greatest idiot ever presented to the Am people.