Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.
Sunday, September 25, 2016

Poll: Democrats Poised To Hold Gabby Giffords’ Seat

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Democrats are poised for a decisive victory in tomorrow’s special election to replace Gabby Giffords.

The poll shows Democrat Ron Barber leading his Republican challenger Jesse Kelly by a 53 to 41 percent margin. Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis is polling at 4 percent.

Barber leads 58 percent to 37 percent among the 57 percent of voters who have already cast their ballots; that massive 21 point edge suggests that Barber is almost guaranteed to win on Tuesday.

Although Barber is comfortably ahead in a relatively conservative district — John McCain won there by a 52 to 46 percent margin in 2008 — there are signs that President Barack Obama may not fare as well in November. Only 44 percent of voters in the district approve of Obama, compared to 50 percent who disapprove. Furthermore, despite Barber’s 12 point lead, likely voters only say that they want Democrats to have control of Congress by a 48 to 44 percent margin. As PPP notes, “That’s an unusually large gap between the horse race and who voters want to have control.” It seems that Barber’s personal popularity — he has a 58 percent favorability rating — and his close ties to the immensely popular Giffords are overshadowing voters’ ambivalence about the Democratic party.

“Democrats are likely to win this race comfortably tomorrow,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the unusual circumstances of the contest make its relevance to any other contest later this year pretty limited. It’s not often you have a special election to replace an incumbent who resigned with a 67% favorability rating.”

  • EdC

    It seems like the Republicans would kick a horse while it’s down. We need to overwhelm the Republicans in both the house and the senate, just to brake even, and if Barber does win, and they also vote, the Democrat Senator in, they will follow by voting Obama back in. If the Democrats do not beat the Republicans by major odds, we will either be stalemated again or the Republicans if they win, will through the country in the crapper. For a long time Republicans looked only to todays bottom line, and never cared about tomarrow.

    • Under Obama’s regime the avg family’s net worth has dr4opped from 126,000 to 77,000 a 39% drop .who’s throwing it into the crapper

      • SusanDRD

        Not really under Obama’s regime. Most of the country was doing quite well until the Republicans leadership caused us all to end up in this mess. Why is it Republicans don’t want to own up to the 2 wars, the wealthy getting wealthier due to tax breaks, a bad drug plan, and on and on and on that took place from 2000-2008? Why can’t the Republicans pass a jobs plan or come up with a viable one themselves…..or would that be because they do not want the country to get back on it’s feet and only want to defeat Obama who has set forth a jobs bill and is doing everything he can to not only get us back on track but to make a stronger economy for the future. All Repubicans have done for the past 3 1/2 years is criticize everything tried by this administration but do nothing to help it. We are all in this together and unless we all work together it is going to take even longer to solve our problems. So this do nothing Congress needs to start putting us first and all of us need to become and behave more civil to one another when responding to each other on these posts. We may not always agree but we need not be so rude when we disagree.

        • It’s not the republicans per se. It’s Grover and his gang of thugs bulllying what used to be a fine political party. I’m a lifelong Democrat, but I know what’s going on because of his “pledge” nonsense. He allowed the entire party to pass on republican issues without thinking. Just Remember Your Pledge (if you want any support in the next election).

      • nkiflemar

        That is your pro-business Republican Tea Party doing that to us Michael! Obama has tried and tried again to get a jobs bill passed, has worked so hard to get things going economically and the the Repukes can do is fillibuster and vote everything down. The net worth went down for Americans because of job cuts of the middle class including govt jobs, and an economic collapse caused by the previous administration’s deregulation policies and letting ANYONE buy a home. When the crap hit the fan, he was just about on his way out and left Obama holding the whole bag. Don’t forget the cause took 7 years…therefore the solution will likely take even longer.

      • Michael you seem to be forgetting the drop in the housing market started during the Bush administration. Most of the families loss of net worth was caused by the crash of housing prices. In fact that crash in housing accounts for 3/4ths of the loss. Trying to blame Obama for that is just disingenious and false.

        Families in the middle 60% of the population lost a larger share of their wealth than over a three year period than the wealthiest and poorest families. The reason is that the wealth of the middle class is mostly in housing. Other forms of wealth have recovered much of their value while housing prices have hardly budged. Stocks have certainly recovered.

        Familes in the lowest 20% saw their earnings increase from 2007 to 2010, partly due to expansion of government programs during the recession. Wealthy families, which derive more income from investments, also cushioned against the recession.

        If you rank American families by income, the top 10% of households still earned an average of $349,000 in 2010. The average net worth of the same families was $2.9 million.

  • I surely hope that poll is correct. Kelly is nasty,won’t answer questions that were put to him by a newspaper. He just kept repeating his campaign agenda. He has his signs all over the area with taped on messages on the signs. He is not for public education and against all government except of course HIS ideas. If Barber wins it will renew my faith in goodness and people having the sense to see through stupid campaigning.

  • I think this is great news for the country . Take the Giffords seat and lets send barack into the Job Market …After all with his resume of being a Failed Communtiy Organizer on his resume should get him hooked up sweet . After all the Provate Sector is doing Just FINE …and Liberals think he is smart

    • STORMENHARD

      Well you sure aren’t… (smart that is)

    • Have you actually looked into the jobs numbers? Over 4 million new jobs in the last 27 months is a sign of recovery. Certainly things are not happening fast enough for those still looking for work, but just where would we be if the GOP controlled House had actually spent just a small percentage of their time working with the President and the other side of the aisle? Obstruction has been successful in holding back recovery and has damaged countless families in the name of a failed ideology. Do you really believe that is a good thing for the country in its hour of need??? Don’t let your fear and distrust cloud your judgement.

  • Sorry I was laughing so hard I couldn’t type …Do any of you care about the National Secrets his Whitehouse is releasing ? Do you think Holders people will dig anything up . Nixon resigned over a cover up at the Watergate . This is big time . Do you think your Cartoon News Networks will cover it or bury it ? Watch FOX sheeple …you night learn something .

    • Nice non-sequitur.

    • viewfromtheleftcoast

      It was a “Cover up” of criminal activity directed by Nixon He resigned because he had a deal from his VP that he would be pardoned, while his doers went to prison!!

      Short memory, your problem, try some Ginko ??

  • With all the money being pumped into this campaign to end Obama’s presidency what makes you think that the polls can’t be bought? This is the absolute best way to get people to not turn out if the polls are showing their is no hope. Case in point. How in the hell could Obama be losing in Michigan?

  • desertdustoff

    Yeah, all arizona needs is another gun totin’, repugnican ted nugent wannabe to replace a woman who was gunned down while doing her duty. And..if that isn’t enough of a red flag, her successor was injured twice in the line of duty. They are real heroes!!

  • nkiflemar

    AZ folks seem to always vote against their own best interest, so it would not surprise me if Obama loses here, though he shouldn’t. AZ, under the current leadership has fallen to dead last on a ton of different issues. Rising tuition, reduction of teachers, loss of thousands of public sector jobs which has resulted in a huge loss of services, an anti-union, anti-govt stance from city council to the governor have left our state’s middle class all but gasping for air. So many middle class folks have lost it all and are now either homeless or have had to move into cheap apartments and work jobs that pay minimum wage. It is pretty dismal to say the least and the only way it will change is to get rid of the rightwing attitudes here.

  • Does anyone have the illusion that Arizona can still be saved for it’s people? Too many people there who will listen to the big money ads coming up to try and slam Obama with lies and halfl-truths.

  • Where are all the billions from that the rich are doling out to fight this president.
    Answer: They saved it from the taxes the President wants them to pay to the
    government. If they succeed they will still be using the money due to the treasury
    of United States to impose their candidates on the nation forever. What an irony!

  • A woman in a hot air balloon realized she was lost. She lowered her altitude and spotted a man in a boat below. She shouted to him, “Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don’t know where I am.” The man consulted his portable GPS and replied, “You’re in a hot air balloon, approximately 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude.

    She rolled her eyes and said, “You must be a Democrat.” “I am,”replied the man. “How did you know?” “Well,” answered the balloonist, everything you told me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to do with your information, and I’m still lost. Frankly, you’ve not been much help to me.”

    The man smiled and responded, “You must be a Republican.” “I am,” replied the balloonist. “How did you know?” “Well,” said the man, “you don’t know where you are or where you’re going. You’ve risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. You’re in exactly the same position you were in before we met but, somehow, now it’s my fault.”

    • viewfromtheleftcoast

      Spot on!!!

  • karinursula

    Mr Boehner said the reason for the tax cuts are, that they would create jobs. Now my question is where are the jobs? Apple who said that they had Billions in the bank is outsourcing to
    China. Why don’t they bring some jobs back to the USA? Of course Apple would have to
    pay higher wages, than to the Chinese in their sweatshops. Of course patriotism goes only so far and only if it is convenient and it does not lower the profits. I came to this country 40 years ago from Germany. I really believed that the Representatives worked for all
    the people not just a few chosen. Well I guess I was wrong.

  • DukeDacat

    Hey Michael…. Did you just happen to forget. the housing crisis that started about 2oo7 and continuing to this day, accounts for the the biggest piece of a family’s net woth….. mine is down 41.1 %
    Whose Regime is responsible for that???

  • DukeDacat

    Michael Stoll ……………..

    It is now confirmed that you and Bozso are from the same Village….
    It is rare when a Village loses of BOTH their Idiots at the same time…

  • 1angeleyes

    Gabby should not be replaced by a republican. She was hurt in the line of duty. She did not die thank God. What are the republicans problem? Why do the bullying continue. Bullying is against the law. What are you going to do about this