Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.
Thursday, October 27, 2016

Sanford_PodiumAccording to the latest Public Policy Polling poll, Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch holds a narrow lead over Republican Mark Sanford in the special election for U.S. represenative in South Carolina’s 1st District.

The poll finds Colbert Busch leading Sanford by a statistically insignificant 47 to 45 percent margin, with 8 percent not sure. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 2.9 percent.

Colbert Busch’s strong numbers are largely driven by the strong support of her base — 81 percent of those who describe themselves as very or somewhat liberal have a favorable opinion of Colbert Busch, while just 49 percent of very or somewhat conservative respondents have a favorable opinion of Sanford. In a head-to-head matchup, 89 percent of Democrats would vote for Colbert Busch, while just 76 percent of Republicans would vote for Sanford.

Sanford is also having trouble with self-described moderate voters — 61 percent of moderates view Colbert Busch favorably, while 17 percent view her unfavorably. By contrast, just 25 percent of moderates view Sanford favorably, while 67 percent view him unfavorably.

Overall, it seems that Sanford’s redemption message is not yet sinking in — 58 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the former South Carolina governor, who famously disappeared from office to carry on an extramarital affair in Argentina. Just 34 percent view Sanford favorably.

Still, Sanford’s numbers have significant room to grow. South Carolina’s 1st District is solidly Republican; 45 percent of the district self-identifies as Republican, compared to 30 percent Democrat and 25 percent Independent/other. Furthermore, just 41 percent of those in the district view President Obama favorably, while 57 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the president.

Before Sanford faces Colbert Busch, he must face former Charleston City Council member Curtis Bostic in an April 2nd runoff. Despite some high-profile endorsements for Bostic, Sanford is expected to easily win the runoff — he leads Bostic 53 to 40 percent according to PPP. If Sanford can win over Bostic’s Republican supporters after the runoff, then he will be in strong position to reclaim the congressional seat that he held from 1995 through 2001.

Colbert Busch’s numbers also have significant room to change, as 24 percent still have no opinion of the Clemson University administrator. One option for raising Colbert Busch’s profile could be stepping up the use of her brother, comedian Stephen Colbert, as a campaign surrogate. Colbert is relatively popular in the district, with 36 percent holding a favorable opinion of him and 27 percent viewing him unfavorably.

The full results of the poll can be seen here.

AP Photo

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2013 The National Memo
  • AFV

    You needed a poll for this? It was pretty evident on primary day that Colbert had as many votes as all the republican candidates combined. This stranglehold the GOP has in South Carolina is tenuous at best. Look out Lindsey. They’re coming for you…

    • Sand_Cat

      Hope you’re right, but I’m not holding my breath.

      • Independent1

        I’ll second that: “Hope you’re right’!!

  • I hope to god our southern friends in SC aren’t as dumb as Minnisotan’s in voting again for such and idiot as the Bachwoman, Surely they won’t vote their worst governor embarrassment in history back into representing them.

    • Unfortunately, I expect they will, for at least two reasons.

      First, there are a lot of Republicans who will not vote for a Democrat, regardless of who their candidate is.

      Second, his rhetoric about taxes is a tried and true message to the uninformed. Look at the last Presidential election. Romney didn’t win 45% of the vote just because they liked him or Ryan. The message was, “We need lower taxes in order to get the economy going again.”

      Despite the Republican record of job losses, mortgage meltdown, Constitutional abuses, unfunded wars, voter suppression, massive debt load, and the attitude of “DEFICITS DON’T MATTER”, 45% voted for more of the same.

      So, yeah, I think Sanford has a decent shot at screwing South Carolina once again.

      • Independent1

        I’m sorry to say that I think you may be right, given the record of how clueless (blind to the facts) that Republicans have shown themselves to be in especially the elections over the past 30 plus years.

        • alumahead

          You can’t reach an ideologue with facts. TeaBillies have their Fox News talking points and that’s all that matters to them. Plus, Obama is a Democrat, so…

  • T.E.A. = Taxed Enough Already? This may come as a surprise to Mr. Sanford, but our tax rate is one of the lowest in the industrialized world and the only thing we have to show for what we pay are medieval crusades.

    • Independent1

      We’ve seen some wealthy people talk about leaving America because of a 4,6% increase in their tax rate, which seems totally absurd to me; unless of course they’re planning to move to some 3rd world economy. If a wealthy persons takes a real look at the tax rates of vast majority of European countries, I think they would be more than happy to stay in America which as you point out, has one of the lowest overall tax rates in the lindustrialized world. Here’s a list of just the income and value added tax rates of a number of the more prominent European countries:
      (Keep in mind as you go through the list that I’m fairly certain most of these countries do not have the vast array of tax loopholes that the US has which allow their citizens to get away without paying lower to no taxes on their incomes):

      Income Tax Rates
      and Value Added Taxes
      Austria – 50% + 20%
      Bulgaria -10% + 20%
      Croatia – 40% + 25%
      Cyprus – 35% + 17%
      Czech Rep – 15% + 21%
      Denmark – 55.4% + 25%
      Estonia – 21% + 20%
      Finland – 53% + 24%
      France – 75% + 17.6%
      Germany – 45% + 19%
      Georgia – 12% + 19%
      Greece – 45% + 23%
      Hungary – 16% + 27%
      Ireland – 41% -+ 23%
      Italy – 45% + 21%
      Latvia – 23% + 21%
      Liechtenstein – 17.89% + 8%
      Luxembourg – 38.95% +15%
      Malta – 35% + 18%
      Netherlands – 52% + 21%
      Norway – 54.3% + 25%
      Poland – 32% + 23%
      Portugal – 46>5% + 23%
      Romania + 16% + 24%
      Russia – 13% + 18%
      Slovakia – 19% + 20%
      Slovenia – 41% + 20%
      Spain – 52% + 21%
      Sweden – 56.6% + 25%
      Switzerland – 45.5% + 8%
      Turkey 35% + 18%
      Ukraine – 17% + 20%
      United Kingdom – 45% + 20%
      U.S. – 39.6% + ?

  • CPAinNewYork

    Sanford must rate high on the unmitigated gall meter. I think that the only people who would vote for that piece of crap are the rich and the rednecks.
    I had a history professor from South Carolina who said that in Columbia, the state capitol, the legislature is at one end of the main street and the mental hospital is at the other end and that the inmates of each are interchangeable.

    • Independent1

      It is a bit hard to understand how true scumbags have the nerve to put themselves right back out in the forefront of the public again after they have totally embarrassed themselves in front of not only their families but the entire country.

    • Allan Richardson

      More accurately, if it were in any competently run state, the people in the legislature WOULD be in the mental hospital; in a “red” state the mental hospital would give them a clear bill of health, so as to avoid having to let in all their voters as well.

  • howa4x

    Well one thing you can be sure of when it comes to Rednecks: they are always easily convinced to vote against their own interests and that of their children. So never be surprised by just how down right stupid they can be. the most ironic thing about the sign in the picture about being taxed enough is, it should be in a Blue state and not a red one. Blue states receive much less back than red ones, and we seem to be supporting their collective nonsense. I wish Red states would have signs saying I want to pay my share

  • adriancrutch

    A pretty loathsome character would try to FOOL YOU TWICE!

  • alumahead

    I can forgive Sanford for his marital indiscretions, but he deserted his post. I can forgive him for that too, but that doesn’t mean he deserves another position of power. Quite the opposite. He’s well connected. Let him get a job in the private sector. Love doesn’t excuse desertion.