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Monday, October 24, 2016

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of June 29:


It’s only July, but Governor Tom Corbett has essentially already lost his re-election. The latest Franklin & Marshall poll shows Corbett trailing behind Democratic challenger Tom Wolf by 22 points (47 to 25 percent), with a +/- 4.4 percent margin of error.

A 59 percent majority of Pennsylvania voters think that the state is “off on the wrong track,” and only 26 percent think that Corbett has done a good enough job to deserve re-election.

Those who think that Corbett is only doing a “fair” or “poor” job said that they were concerned about how he’s dealt with education (he’s dramatically cut funding), economic issues, his support for fracking, and the fact that there’s a “lack of change in the state.”

Corbett is one of the most (if not the most) vulnerable incumbent governors on the ballot in 2014. The Real Clear Politics poll average shows Wolf ahead by 21.7 points.


Though Tuesday’s poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling has Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) ahead of Republican challenger Bill Cassidy by 17 points in the state’s open primary (44 to 27 percent with a +/- 3.8 percent margin of error), the two candidates are still on track for a runoff. The two other Republican candidates, Rob Maness and Phil Hollis, have 8 percent and 5 percent of the vote, respectively. Landrieu needs 50 percent of the vote to avoid a December runoff with the second-place finisher.

When PPP matched Landrieu against Cassidy, the two were in a dead tie, with 47 percent of voters supporting each candidate. Both Landrieu and Cassidy have negative favorability ratings. But Landrieu’s real problem is with independent voters, who support Cassidy by 13 points. The poll also finds that Landrieu’s numbers are hurt by President Obama’s negative approval ratings, as only 38 percent approve of his performance, while 56 percent disapprove.

The Real Clear Politics poll average has Cassidy ahead by 3 points.


The Colorado’s governor race is in a “dead heat,” according to a survey released on Tuesday by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports. Both Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper and Republican Bob Beauprez have 44 percent of the vote, with a +/- 4 percent margin of error. Four percent support some other candidate, and 8 percent are undecided.

Hickenlooper is facing a backlash for his recent comments to a group of sheriffs, in which he apologized for signing tough gun laws. In a state that takes its gun rights seriously, his comments made it a topic of conversation again.

The Real Clear Politics poll average has Hickenlooper ahead by 4.5 points.

Meanwhile, the Colorado Senate race is also tied. A Rasmussen Reports survey released Monday shows Democratic senator Mark Udall ahead of Republican Cory Gardner by only 1 point (43 to 42 percent). Six percent prefer another candidate, and 9 percent are still undecided. Udall’s 1-point lead is well within the poll’s +/- 4 percent margin of error. The Real Clear Politics poll average also shows Udall with only a 1-point lead.

Both Udall and Gardner scrambled to respond after Monday’s Hobby Lobby ruling. Udall condemned the decision and attacked Gardner for previous legislation that allowed employers to determine employee health plans based on their personal beliefs, while Gardner said that he supports “religious liberty,” but wants the FDA to make birth control available to voters without a prescription.


Tuesday’s PPP poll has Republican governor Rick Snyder and Democratic challenger Mark Schauer tied with 40 percent of the vote each, with a +/- 4.1 percent margin of error.

Snyder is plagued by his very negative job performance rating, as 37 percent approve of the way he’s run the state, while 54 percent disapprove.

But while voters see Snyder negatively, they barely have an opinion of Schauer at all—27 percent see him favorably, and 24 percent unfavorably.

Schauer is leading Snyder in every age group except 65+. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Snyder ahead by 6 points.

Photo via Wikimedia Commons

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Copyright 2014 The National Memo
  • FireBaron

    Now, if only he can take Maine’s with him.

    • Allan Richardson

      We’re trying to get rid of a bad Deal in Georgia too. And the law is also after him.

  • Dominick Vila

    Better late than never. What we need, at this time, is investment, credit, low interest rates, and innovation. A cursory look at the ups and downs of our economy, sustainable job growth, fiscal discipline, and the debt , would prove, without the slightest doubt, that trickle down economics and austerity don’t work.
    Unfortunately, the folks in PA cannot vote in states like Florida…

  • terry b

    Scott Walkers record in Wisconsin is the worst of all the bad governors covered here. If only the citizens of Wisconsin would overcome ignorance and boot him out by a landslide would we be able to match Pennsylvania’s voting electorate. Our governor is counting on ignorance to get reelected and so far he is pulling that off. Best way to get things done correctly is to vote the bums out. Lets hope for the best for all of the states that are suffering from horrible governors.

    • Lynda Groom

      Well depending upon ignorance worked so well for him last time I imagine it is difficult to break away from that method.

      • terry b

        Very well put! He won’t change for the reason you said because he counted on it last time and he has to figure that it will work again. I will be working my ass off again to do my damndest to try to stop it from working again. I all ready wrote a letter to the Wisconsin State Journal listing all the reasons that he is such a horrible governor. That and the 2000 calls I will be making in October to make sure that everyone knows why it is necessary to vote in November. I will make each person promise to help oust him. Most people don’t break promises and will pass on the ignorance quotient that he loves.

        • Barbara Morgan

          You don’t think Walker will be awaiting trial before the November election for his “criminal endeavors?” ? of course none of us know all the evidence the Feds have on him and Christie also but they seem to have enough to prosecute both men.

          • terry b

            He has been getting away with this kind of stuff for years. The evidence in 2012 was very strong and even with his criminal defense fund available to him we were still unable to do the right thing. I fear that that will happen again. We all know that he is a criminal but knowing without someone ratting on him out won’t do it.

          • Barbara Morgan

            Use the same tactics the Republican and Tea party use, repeat the what the evidence and facts in regard’s to Walker’s crimes are all the time in all ads. phone calls etc. Use the same method Republicans have really used since President Obama was elected, report stuff over and over etc again and again even if you have to twist the truth some to make sure the voters of Wisconsin know what type of person he is. If you have or can a get a copy of of the video of him where he told a woman, don’t remember her name or company he was going to do something about the unions when she asked him to do it while he telling the voters he wasn’t going to break the unions.think that would be the best way in the world to beat him and other Republicans at the poll.

  • Lynda Groom

    If the registered Democrats bother to show up at the polls the results are clear. However this is an off year and by tradition Democrats stay home. Just actually why this happens over and over again beats the stuff out of me.

    • Barbara Morgan

      Most are to busy trying to support themselves and their families and don’t listen to the facts that much or as well as they do when it is Presidential election. I used to be that way myself but that stopped when George Walker Bush and the Republicans stole the 2000 Presidential election.

  • Barbara Morgan

    Gardner in Colorado is stupid, birth control can’t be sold over the counter like condoms are, some types a woman has to be fitted for and other types like the pill have to be prescribed because no two women’s body handles the ingredients in a pill that is same dosage the same way. One pill doesn’t fit all women and one size diaphragm doesn’t fit all women. Bet he and all other men like him would have fit if Viagra and penile pumps were sold over the counter like condoms are, because they know the same dosage of Viagra doesn’t work for all men and from I understand about them penile pumps have to be implanted in a man. Stupid needs to return to school and listen to to the teacher this time, since he doesn’t understand why some birth control products are prescription not over the counter like the condoms lots of men won’t use.

    • Lynda Groom

      Medicare also covers the little vacumn machines to help these idiots get it up. Check the back pages of the AARP monthly magazine for a chuckle.

    • Allan Richardson

      Birth control pills sold without regular medical checkups can be deadly, because a woman has no way to know, without regular lab tests and doctor visits, whether she is causing herself long term, or even short term, health damage or even death. Furthermore, the best kind of pill for one woman is not the same as for another. In fact, women need regular checkups and diagnostic tests whether they use birth control or not, to screen for cervical cancer and other diseases.

      • Barbara Morgan

        I know I took birth control bills for about 6 years my cramps had gotten so bad that one sometimes two days everytime it was that time of the month I was unable to work because I was bent over from pain. After I had to come off them because of my age and being over weight I suffered for another 12 years with monthly painful cramps . I finally got relief because I had to have hysterectomy because I bleed for twenty four days doing even it after been given shoots to make the bleeding stop. What I went through in my child bearing years is something I wouldn’t even wish on a male Republican Supreme Court Justice that is how bad my cramping pain was .

  • Adam Smith

    Biology’s natural selection concept is applicable to cultures in the sense that those cultures which are most adaptable are those that survive and thrive.