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Saturday, December 3, 2016

On the final day of the presidential campaign, both national and state polls suggest that President Barack Obama is on track to win the 2012 presidential election.

The latest national polls suggest that the president has seized the momentum in the race. While most tracking polls showed Mitt Romney leading President Obama by a narrow margin last week, the president is now tied or slightly ahead in most surveys released today:

American Research Group: Obama 49 percent, Romney 49 percent

Democracy Corps: Obama 49 percent, Romney 45 percent (Stan Greenberg explains these numbers in the new video from The Carville-Greenberg Memo.)

Gallup: Romney 49 percent, Obama 48 percent

Monmouth: Obama 48 percent, Romney 48 percent

Public Policy Polling: Obama 50 percent, Romney 48 percent

Rasmussen: Romney 49 percent, Obama 48 percent

UPI/CVoter: Obama 49 percent, Romney 47 percent

Washington Post-ABC: Obama 50 percent, Romney 47 percent

 

In the swing states, President Obama’s lead is more pronounced. Of the 22 swing state polls released today, Romney leads in just four.

Colorado:

Public Policy Polling: Obama 52 percent, Romney 46 percent

Florida:

InsiderAdvantage: Romney 52 percent, Obama 47 percent

Public Policy Polling: Obama 50 percent, Romney 49 percent

Pulse Opinion Research: Romney 50 percent, Obama 48 percent

Zogby: Obama 50 percent, Romney 45 percent

UNF: Obama 49 percent, Romney 45 percent

Iowa:

American Research Group: Romney 49 percent, Obama 48 percent

New Hampshire:

WMUR: Obama 51 percent, Romney 48 percent

American Research Group: Obama 49 percent, Romney 49 percent

New England College: Obama 50 percent, Romney 46 percent

North Carolina:

Public Policy Polling: Obama 49 percent, Romney 49 percent

Ohio:

Pulse Opinion Research: Obama 48 percent, Romney 46 percent

Zogby: Obama 50 percent, Romney 44 percent

University of Cincinnati: Obama 50 percent, Romney 49 percent

Rasmussen: Obama 49 percent, Romney 49 percent

SurveyUSA: Obama 49 percent, Romney 44 percent

Pennsylvania:

Pulse Opinion Research: Obama 49 percent, Romney 46 percent

Virginia:

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist: Obama 48 percent, Romney 47 percent

Pulse Opinion Research: Obama 49 percent, Romney 48 percent

Rasmussen: Romney 50 percent, Obama 48 percent

Zogby: Obama 52 percent, Romney 44 percent

Wisconsin:

Pulse Opinion Research: Obama 49 percent, Romney 48 percent

 

Political betting markets also favor President Obama for re-election. Betfair says that Obama has a roughly 79 percent chance of winning re-election, while Intrade has Obama’s chances at 67.3 percent.

Hat tip to Political Wire and Talking Points Memo

 

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