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Thursday, October 27, 2016

Polls Show Democrats Taking Over In Key Senate Races

According to recent polling, Democratic candidates are making major gains key Senate races across the country.

In Massachusetts, Democrat Elizabeth Warren has surged ahead of incumbent Republican Scott Brown in four polls that were released this week. Public Policy Polling has Warren leading Brown by a 48 to 46 percent margin, Western New England University’s Polling Institute has Warren leading 50 to 44 percent, Suffolk University/WHDH-TV has Warren leading 48 to 44 percent, and WBUR has Warren leading 45 to 40 percent. Brown did lead Warren 50 to 44 percent in a UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll released on Thursday, but aside from that poll, Warren is trending quickly upwards.

The Senate race in Virginia appears to be shifting towards the Democrats as well. Former Governor Tim Kaine leads former Senator George Allen in two polls released on Wednesday. A Washington Post poll shows Kaine with a 51 to 43 percent lead, and a Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll shows Kaine leading 51 to 44 percent. These results represent a dramatic shift in Kaine’s favor — until this week, the race had been essentially tied all year.

In Wisconsin, two recent polls show Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin rapidly gaining ground in her race against former Governor Tommy Thompson. On Wednesday, a Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll had Baldwin and Thompson tied at 47 percent; this is a six-point swing from their previous poll, which gave Thompson a 6 percent lead at the end of August.

A Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday shows an even greater surge for Baldwin. According to the poll, Baldwin leads Thompson by a 50 to 41 percent margin, easily marking her biggest lead of the campaign so far.

Finally, in Arizona, a poll released on Wednesday night shows Dr. Richard Carmona leading Republican Rep. Jeff Flake by a 44 to 39 percent margin. Although Flake is still widely favored to win the race, the poll confirms that Carmona has a very real chance of stealing what was initially considered to be a safe Republican seat.

Taken together, these polls are a serious red flag for the GOP. Republicans must win a net total of three seats to control the Senate if Mitt Romney wins the presidency, or four seats if President Obama is re-elected. If Democrats win even two of the above races, then that task will become virtually impossible.

New York Times statistician Nate Silver doesn’t like the Republicans’ odds. Silver now projects that the Democrats have a 79 percent chance of holding a majority in the Senate, up from just 38.5 percent one month ago.

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  • Perhaps that anchor baby Romney is indeed having an effect on state and local elections. Serves his party right.

  • ryueire

    The American people are smarter than the few who only get weaned on Fox and the vitriole that the GOP/ T baggers have been offering. Romney is done, and so too the obstructionism, hopefully. There are some serious problems that need to be addressed and it has to be bi partisans working together in the next four years. I think this bodes well in terms of seeing program’s that would have spurred the economy that were not initiated because of Repub obstruction.
    You reap what you sow.

    • sigrid28

      It is encouraging to see the senate trending Democratic, but it’s not yet time to, in the biblical phrase, “lay down the sword.” Democrats have to remember that three GOP strategies are still in play, big time: lying to constituents, flooding the airways with ads paid for by super wealthy donors, and a whole range of voter suppression efforts. The first two we do our part in curtailing by commenting on these threads and keeping up with campaign news. But to assure a win that gives President Obama the chance to advance the Democratic agenda, we have to do more.

      Life isn’t fair, a factor Republicans have been capitalizing upon behind the scenes for years, ever since they decided to make Barack Obama a one-term president. In almost every state, Republicans have pushed legislation to restrict voters and confuse them, deny voter registration, and interrupt access to the polls.

      How to fight back? The Barack Obama website offers a way for each of us, whatever our means, to work on getting voters to the polls: phone calls, canvassing door-to-door, networking with local Democratic groups, and raising funds. In our town, the Democratic Central Committee has arranged a taxi service for those who have trouble reaching the polls. The main early-voting site is a block from the bus depot, so Obama for America workers are making the most of this golden opportunity to encourage early voting and add registrations. Statewide, the Republican secretary of State has been blocked from challenging registrations he says he must question, as it is “an emergency.” An emergency for Republicans in Iowa, I would say! As soon as early voting begins on September 27th, lawyers working with the statewide Iowa Democratic campaign will be available to visit polls if a voter’s registration is challenged by “Bullies at the Ballot Box” from Truethevote and other Republican groups that plan to win via voter intimidation. We’ll need feet on the ground to get souls to the polls if we really want President Obama and other Democrats to win in November.

  • It all comes to an end Nov 6. Unless there’s contested elections, it’s over.
    Educated guesses don’t really make that much difference, as far as I’m concerned, Romney’s done.
    The Republicans have finally realized if they lose this one, they will, they need to make some major changes in how they deal with this Country to get more support.
    If you look up Eisenhower’s idea of the best way to run this country they’ve totally reversed it, think that might have something to do with it?
    President Dwight D. Eisenhower,
    WWII Five Star General
    34th President of the United States 1953-1961

    • Sand_Cat

      Just a “card-carrying communist” to the Birchers, and they were moderate compared to what we have now.

      Don’t count repugnants out, just because they’re lunatics. I believe the operating principle here is “No one ever lost money by underestimating the public taste.”

      And I believe history shows that members of fanatical cults are seldom disillusioned by catastrophic failure of their leaders, at least not the first couple of failures. In fact, their faith may become stronger.

      If they lose, let’s hope the Republican cult learns nothing from it.

      • The Birchers are still here, they are called tea baggers, the Koch family funds both of them.

  • We should have no problem keeping the Senate blue. Unfortunately, Claire McCaskill is trailing Todd Akin, the legitimate rape guy!
    Getting back the House is another matter. The GOP 25 seat majority is almost insurmountable. The best we can hope for is to narrow the gap in the House.

  • This still comes down to how many people actually show up to vote. If the Democrats fail to get out the vote, Romney and the Republicans could still make a major upset. That would be a sad day for the 99%. (Or the 47% if you believe Romney.)

  • joyscarbo

    HOORAY!!! C’mon, everyone! Let’s vote the republican scoundrels out of office!!!

  • a80a

    ask mitt. why his grand parents were in mexico to start with,could it have anything to do with polygamy? when they were forced out of mexico by the revolution as he stated . there was not any wefare programs to help them . did it not take a bill passed by congress to assist the returning mormans? yet he has no passion for the poor living in proverty where he has never been or seen. he had better learn the words to GOD BLESS AMERICA.

    • His Grandpa went to MExico with four wives, and got a fifth while south of the border. Not clear which one Mitt descends from. His Dad was born in Mexico, which according to GOP philosophy makes Mitt an anchor baby!

      • grammyjill

        I think he decends from the mexican grandmother. I’ve seen two of his sons on TV. They appear, like my cousins, hispanic.
        Please send reply as I have something you might be interested in.

        • a80a


          • grammyjill

            I got this a couple days ago.
            Found this interesting, Children of congress members do not have to pay back their student college loans. How nice! Monday on Fox news they learned that staffers of congress family members are exempt from having to pay back student loans. This will get national attention if other news networks will broadcast it. When you add this to the below, just where will allof it stop? 35 States file lawsuit against Federal Government.
            Governors of 35 states have filed suit against the Federal Government for imposing unlawful burdens on them. It only takes 38 of the 50 states to convene a Constitutional Convention. This will take less than 30 seconds to read. If you agree, pass it on. This is an idea that we should address.
            For too long we have been too complacent about the workings of congress. Many citizens had no idea that  members of congress could retire with the same pay after only one term, that they specifically exempted themselves from many laws they have passed( such as being exempt from any fear of prosecution for sexual harassment) while ordinary citizens must live under those laws. The latest is to exempt themselves from the healthcare all of it’s forms. Somehow, that doesn’t seem logical. We do not have an elite that is above the law. I truly don’t care if they are Democrat, Republican, Independent or whatever. The self-serving must stop. If each person that recives this will forward it to 20 people, in three days, most people in the US will have the message. This is one proposal that really should be passed around. Proposed 28th Amendment to the US Constitution: ” Congress shall make no law that applies to the citizens of the United States that does not apply equally to the Senators and/or Representatives; and Congress shall make no law that applies to the Senators and/or Representatives that does not apply equally to the citizens of the United States.”

  • grammyjill

    I watched the debate between Warren and Brown last night. Brown kept trying to accuse Warren of lying about her native american heritage. She kept going after his voting record. She won!

  • Patterman

    Big caveat: Republican voter suppression efforts continue unabated. I’m expecting chaos on election day that will make Florida 2000 look like a picnic. Hope I’m wrong of course, but I’m not optimistic about it.

  • bpai99

    Hate and ignorance usually triumph in human affairs, so I am at a loss to explain why the GOP isn’t doing much better right now than it is. Still a ways to go before Election Day, however, so the GOP will be throwing the kitchen sink and everything else soon to try to change the dynamics of this race.