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Saturday, October 1, 2016

There’s something to drive nearly everyone crazy in the latest batch of polls for the 2012 presidential election.

Gallup has Republican nominee Mitt Romney up by seven, taking 52 percent of the vote. No candidate except Ronald Reagan has ever been over 50 percent this late in a presidential election and won. However, Bush was leading Gore by 7 at this point in the 2000 election and went on to lose the popular vote.

Daily Kos looked into Gallup’s numbers to find out how they’re showing the Republican with a 5-percentage-point larger lead than the right-leaning Rasmussen Reports. The president was leading in the East, Midwest and West, but getting crushed in the South by 22 percent.

A new daily tracking poll from PPP shows the race as a tie after Romney led their national poll by 4. But that poll did have some disturbing news for the president when it comes to independent voters who favored Romney by 5 percent.

Polling experts—like The New York Times’ Nate Silver—recommend sticking to the poll averages to get a clear picture of the race.

The Real Clear Politics average shows Romney up by 1 percent. Polltracker says Romney is up by 1.1 percent.

Pollster shows the president leading the electoral college with 277 votes, seven more than he needs to win re-election. Real Clear Politics electoral map has Romney leading for the first time. Romney is up 206 to 201.

Real Clear Politics’ map is showing Pennsylvania as a toss-up, which is difficult for many Democrats to believe. But a poll from October 12 showed Romney leading in the state by 4 points. However, we’re assuming the firm behind the poll, Susquehanna Polling and Research, is Republican-leaning, since they called Romney’s second debate performance “excellent.” Most polls agree that the president won the second debate.

The recent swing state numbers hold the best news for the president. In polls released today, he was up in Colorado, Florida, Michigan and Virginia—though all within or near the margin of error. A Rasmussen poll shows the president down by 6 in North Carolina, where reportedly the Romney campaign is so confident that they’re pulling out resources to head to more competitive states.

Nate Silver still gives the president a 65 percent chance of winning the electoral vote, and Intrade, where people bet on the outcome of the election, still has the president at a 62.9 percent chance of winning. At below a 60 percent likelihood of winning, Silver rates a race a toss-up.

So for now, the odds are still leaning in President Obama’s favor.

  • nobsartist

    Funny, the 7/11 cup poll, accurate within 1/2 point the last 4 elections, shows President Obama with a 19 POINT LEAD, NATION WIDE !

    when you consider that this poll uses results from people that actually work for a living, willard has NO chance.

    now when you consider how desperate republiCONs are to take credit for President Obama’s accomplishments, and willards media investments, I think that the republiCONs are so upset by the unemployment rate dropping below 8%, they will do anything.

    after being lied into 2 wars by bush, do not put anything past these criminals.

    • Diogenes67

      The polls to watch are the swing state polls.

      • nobsartist

        Obama is leading in all swing states by substantial margins. The polls not to watch are any that can be bought off by willard.

    • daves

      That is my biggest worry about Mr. Romney winning. The economy is going to continue to improve no matter who is elected and I don’t want people giving the credit to him.

      • ALLLLAMERICAN

        BUT, you would rather go down in flames with your TERRORIST president?

        • daves

          Why do you call President Obama a terrorist? What exactly has he done?

          • ALLLLAMERICAN

            2016 obama’s America

          • lana ward

            These poor fools at this site, won’t read anything but what’s at this site. So uninformed–but you and I will suffer right along with them if RED DIAPER wins

          • U R IDIOT.

          • M.B McClendon

            Just like the George Bush Movie in 2004 correct? Anyone can come up with a movie to skew toward their guy or gal

        • ralphkr

          No, ALLLLAMERICAN, it was very clear from daves post that he fears having a terrorist President Romney just as I fear having a raving terrorist fascist Vice-President Ryan. I wonder how many container ships are impatiently waiting off-shore to haul the last of our factory machinery to foreign countries if Romney is elected.

  • bcarreiro

    November reigns………………….Obama/Biden have been re-elected!!!

  • lana ward

    The polls are up for Romney-Ryan, Americans like what they see and hear!!

    • dianebkht

      Do tell us what Romney /Ryan are saying? Last I heard, it was to be continued until after the Election. I for one, am not falling for this crap! What Candidate in history has ever told the American People this?

      • lana ward

        Obama is planning to announce before the election, that he has cut a deal with Iran over nukes to up his re election chances. At the site–WND—

        • awakenaustin

          WND is an online National Enquirer, but with less class and far less accuracy.

          • lana ward

            The MSM is National Enquirer news with less accuracy!!

          • lana ward

            What would a second term for Obama look like? What is his agenda

          • awakenaustin

            His agenda is to establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare and secure the blessings of liberty to us and to our children. It certainly isn’t to do any of the silliness you accuse him of having on his “agenda.” His goals will be much the same as those in his first term. With a little cooperation (an idea Republicans seem unfamiliar with), he will be able to be even more successful in accomplishing his primary goal of serving the best interests of all the people of this nation. Four years from now after his second term we will be better off than we would be if Mr. Romney were elected. You will be freer, happier, and most likely wealthier. You will still be able to entertain yourself with your fantastic musings about conspiracies and non-existent plans to undermine the nation. That is because Democrats aren’t inclined to interfere with the freedom of speech of even the most uninformed and least thoughtful of our nation.
            An aside, how do Republicans define compromise? “Doing everything their way.”

          • SaneJane

            It will look like more of the same — forward and upward progress.

          • lana ward

            In the toilet, going to the sewer

          • do you two morons remember that the faux bubble heads said the same thing in 2008…but look what happened in reality. Oh wait sorry reality isn’t your cup of tea party is it.

            I bet the BIG O wins by 15-20% and you know what’s even funnier…this is the last election where old pissed off rich white guys will even be a factor.

            good bye tea party hello latino voting block. O YE vatto….

          • What is mitts agenda? Hot air and lies.

          • ALLLLAMERICAN

            at LEAST he is not a TERROIST!!!!!!!!

          • you know that list of free things you keep putting up ALLLLLLLLLLLLLL?

            If you could get mittens to give you one more free vertibrae you could blow yourself and it would finally put your mouth to some constructive use…just saying …it wouldn’t hurt to ask.

          • ALLLLAMERICAN

            GREAT!!! Thanks for the advice—
            you Libs always come up with some kind of vulgar, filthy, immoral, corrupt, crude, language.

          • ALLLLAMERICAN

            2016 obama’s America is what will happen

          • so it’s perfect for lana

        • grammyjill

          My God, did you quit school in 4th grade?

          • lana ward

            ROMNEY-RYAN!! Drill baby drill!!!

      • lana ward

        Don’t cry yet. Obama may win. He has cut a deal with Iran over nukes and plans to report it just before the election to up his chances for winning. It’s at the site—WND

        • grammyjill

          Don’t you understand that site is full of lies by loonies?

          • lana ward

            ROMNEY-RYAN!! Drill baby drill!!!

          • ALLLLAMERICAN

            what ever!!!!!!!

    • If they do then they should pull their heads out of their….bleep

    • I thought right wingers thought that the polls were irrelevant and biased towards the Democrats. Also the only poll that matters takes place on 11/6

    • William Deutschlander

      Apparently the electorate is ignorant!

      Tag Romney tells his Father that there is no way for him to win if he continues to state what he TRULY BELEIVES and STANDS FOR, so he MUST CHANGE his MESSAGE (not his beleifs) to a moderate stance that the electorate will tolerate and perhaps elect him. Then if Mitt gets elected he can revert back to his ZEALOT BELEIFS!

      Romney / Ryan have not stated any clear vision of how they would go about governing and bringing our country out of the brutal Republican Great Recession of 2008. With SEVENTEEN of G W Bush’s advisors on Romney’s team, which would be a major part of Romney’s Administrationn, it is EVIDENT to an INTELIGENT INDIVIDUAL that the BUSH PHILOSOPHY WILL FORM A MAJOR PART OF THE ROMNEY governance, the governance that DESTROYED OUR ECONOMY AND EMPLOYMENT!

      • ALLLLAMERICAN

        ANTHING is better than a TERRORIST!!!!!!!!!!!!

        DON’T YOU GET IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        • Landsende

          You keep calling President Obama a terrorist. If you have proof to back up your statement please reveal it. Anyone can make allegations but if they can’t back them up it just makes them look like a fool like Rush Limbag and Faux News.

          • ALLLLAMERICAN

            INVESTIGATE YOURSELF—-

            I’M not the Government —

            I’m NOT going to do all the work for you

          • ExPAVIC

            ALL

            What a sorry, poorly founded response. You use moron tactics to try to convince people you are not a moron.

          • Landsende

            Al
            Your right, your not the government, just some idiot making allegations they can’t back up with any facts. No wonder nobody takes you seriously.

          • Investigate yourself??? is this a response to my earlier suggesstion about requesting an extra vertibrae so you can blow yourself?? Euphamisms are so devious.

          • grammyjill

            Because there is no proof you dirtbag. It’s just fantacy. Some idiot did that to get people like you to make them rich. Congrats, you are a sucker. A fool is born every minute, you’re one of them.

          • ALLLLAMERICAN

            Guess WHAT Grammy—-

            We the Republicans knew he was a terrorist BEFORE he was elected 4-years ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            WE DON’T NEED A MOVIE TO TELL US!!!!!!!!!!

            WE ALREADY KNEW THIS AND THE MOVIE HAS JUST PROVEN US RIGHT

        • no you putz we don’t GET IT no matter how hard you capitalize, and some jackass rightwing nut bag who managed to put together a wild ass conspiracy just before election time to get fools like you to lay out the cash isn’t going to convince anyone of anything. It’s like Angels and Demons put the nail in the coffin of the catholic church??? Oh wait it was all fiction, DAMN.

        • grammyjill

          When you have documented proof you can come back. Until then go away!

    • ExPAVIC

      LIKE? What is there to like or dislike, RoMoney hasn’t said diddly squat for three months. Just jabbering and babbling about nothing.

      • lana ward

        ROMNEY-RYAN, Drill baby drill!!

        • Are you inviting them to your house lana? you want to be a RLR sandwich like a rich vanilla threesome.

          • lana ward

            You’re sicker than your Dem friends going around pissing and shitting on Romney Ryan yard signs–classy group you are

    • grammyjill

      So you love the lies?

      • lana ward

        ROMNEY-RYAN!! Drill baby drill!!

        • Adlib

          Wow. That “Drill Baby Drill” crap is soooo 2008! Didn’t work then, honey, and it won’t work now. Get a new slogan, will ya? This one is boring.

          • lana ward

            We need now, MORE than ever to drill, unless you want to pay $10 a gallon for gas, you dwit

  • Americanmom1

    The only poll that will count is the one on Nov 7th… If the people of this country are so stupid they would vote for Romney then they will get what they deserve. I got mine so it wont touch me..

  • ONALIMB

    ALLLLLAMERICAN, YOU CAN ALWAYS MOVE TO CANADA, OR ENGLAND.

    • Tiercellus

      I’m Canadian. Keep that nutbar on your side of the border…

      • ONALIMB

        My apologies, he can go to Mexico instead.

        • Tiercellus

          I doubt they would want him either, LOL.

          • ONALIMB

            I guess we’ll have to send him to Upper Mongolia. They’ll take him.

  • lana ward

    What in the hell is wrong with you Dems? Pissing and shitting on Romney-Ryan yard signs. You sure have class!!!

  • To “nobsartist”, I say AMEN. To the “so called” AllllAmerican, I say WAKE UP. President Obama IS your president. Quit blinding yourself with prejudice. Open your eyes to the truth. This President has done all he can to preserve our country for the sake of ALL Americans. You included.

  • billbear1961

    If Romney lies his way into the White House, the good economic numbers we’ve been having lately will suddenly be labeled as true by the GOP.

    Right now, because Obama’s still president, they don’t want us to believe the good news—and are lying through their teeth about it.

    Progress has been achieved despite nonstop GOP efforts to sabotage it.

    I’m so tired of this party of fraudulent and ruthless traitors.

    I can’t believe Americans want a return to Republican CASINO economics!

    For God’s SAKE, one terrifying meltdown wasn’t enough??

  • In spite of all the visible and sterling accomplishments President Obama has made ; his crystal-clear honesty in telling Americans the sorry state of the economy when he took office; taking away America’s enemy #1 Bin Laden, it seems some people are never satisfied as long as his grand-father didnt come from West Europe. The rresult? …terrorist president.

  • lana ward

    Candy Crowley looks just like Alister Crowley-The Satanist

  • greendragon101

    Honestly, I don’t care about the polls. I was an eager vote for Obama in 08, but not again. Don’t get me wrong–I’ll never vote for a Republican–but I am so disappointed with Obama that it gives me a headache.

    I thought we were finally getting a REAL Democrat, a big improvement over our last two “half-Democrats,” Clinton & Carter. Guantanamo was going to be shut down. It’s still going. We were supposed to be out of Afghanistan. There are more troops there than ever. Obama was going to cut the deficit in half. It’s bigger than ever. And where is our single-payer health care (the only kind that is fair to all)? And immigration reform?

    I am not sure who I’ll vote for–probably the Greens. But if Obama is the best we can get, then what use is the Democratic party for? We don’t need a half-Dem, half-Republican party. I am just tired of being told “half a loaf is better than none.” When do we REAL Democrats get our turn, darn it???

  • What does “No candidate except Ronald Reagan has ever been over 50 percent this late in a presidential election and won” mean?