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Saturday, October 1, 2016

Is Pennsylvania in the Obama Column?

Polls of Polls Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Average
Obama
+.2
Obama
+2%
Talking Points Memo PollTracker Romney
+.1
Romney
+.1%
HuffingtonPost
Pollster
Obama
+.5
Obama
+.5
New York Times
FiveThirtyEight
Obama
+.1
Obama +2.2
Memo 
Average
 Obama +.2 Obama +1.2

Another month of fundraising is over
If you’ve ever donated to any campaign ever, you’ve probably getting deluged with pleas for more as another fundraising deadline comes to a close. The emails have become so abundant, and some would say sill, that the Obama campaign’s subject lines become part of an Internet meme that involves Ryan Gosling, of course.

Is Pennsylvania settled?
Nate Cohn at The New Republic points out that both the Romney and Obama campaigns are withdrawing their ad buys from Pennsylvania.  Nate Silver at The New York Times thinks this may just be a quirk in ad schedule. The state leans Democratic but Romney benefits from a photo ID law designed to give the state to the Republicans. And if Romney wins there, it could swing the election:

In fact, if Mr. Romney won both Pennsylvania and Ohio, he could afford to lose not just Colorado and Nevada (and New Mexico), but also Virginia.

The worst or the worst ever?

Mitt Romney’s tour of Europe and Israel is over. The Obama campaign calls it “an embarrassing disaster.” The Romney camp disagrees, of course, and blames the media for the bad press. That’s a move that always works for Republicans. But there is no doubt Mitt is glad  to be done with a tour that will be remembered either as a major mistake or as a huge obstacle he overcame.

Verdict: The polls keep ticking up for the President but if the market has priced in some intervention from the Fed that doesn’t come this week, the economy could get quite rocky.

  • Romney should have stuck to Mormon missionary work. Instead of enhancing his foreign policy credentials, Mitt’s foreign crusade was an utter disaster. I expect foreign policy to be regarded as four letter words in future GOP strategy sessions. Romney will focus on the economy, jobs, and the debt, and he is likely to follow a ell defined path without impromptu media interviews or unscripted speeches. As for his tax returns, well, he already admitted he paid less than he was supposed to, and stated that in his opinion the American people would have been disappointed if he hadn’t done that! Heck, he even claimed Ann’s dressage horse as a deduction because of therapeutic reasons! I am definitely claiming my Pug next year…

    • Don

      Yes, and I am claiming my cow and pigs next year as well. That will be a lot of MUCK over the bridge.

  • Pancha_Chandra

    While the two Presidential candidates have excellent credentials, it is vital to analyse their leadership qualities based on their track record. Throughout his first term, President Obama has reached out to all sections of American society making sure poorer, vulnerable Americans are not left out in any way. His humble roots have given him that vital drive to bridge inequalities between rich and poor. Right from the start he has been placing great emphasis on the economy taking a leaf out of Bill Clinton’s mantra ‘it is the economy stupid’. Of course the global economic crisis brought untold suffering and stretched the nation’s resources. In comparison Mr Romney has not really impressed. He has still a steep hill to climb in spite of his wealth!

    • Much of what you say makes sense but I don’t understand how you can say Romney has “excellent credentials”. An important part of being POTUS is the ability to serve the nation in the international arena. Romney has shown us that he is completely lacking in diplomatic and leadership skills. Would anyone be foolish enough to trust our foreign policy decisions to such an incompetent? I think the answer is obvious.

  • The impression I get after talking to friends and relatives who happen to be Republican is that the candidacy of Mitt Romney is almost an after thought to them. The driving force in the GOP today is not Romney, who most Tea Party Republicans see as a figurehead if elected, or even Boehner, but Paul Ryan. To them, the upcoming election is both a referendum on Barack Obama and social programs. If Romney wins and the GOP gets control of the Senate there will be a major push to privatize Social Security and dismantle MEDICARE and MEDICAID, while tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans are made permanent. This election is not about Obama or Romney, it is about the preservation or rejection of what former President Reagan referred to as the safety net. Hopefully enough people understand what is at stake.

    • Dominick – they do not understand what is at stake….we are doomed if Mitty and Ann get the keys to PA Avenue…doomed.

  • As the election approaches you have to assume that people (at least some of them) will begin to pay attention. As that happens the President’s lead will only increase. Pray for tea party extinction.

  • Gammaanya

    I predict that Mutt RobmeofMoney will pick Paul Ryan as his VP. Medicare and Medicaid we will kiss good bye and we will get vouchers worth about 5K a year. Get sick with some long term care /cure disease – can’t afford it – die. SS will be a thing of the past, it’s a cash cow to privatize.
    GOP already claiming that Aug. 1st,2012 was a major invasion on US equal to Pearl Harbor and 9/11 . It shocked me when even Republican Congresswomen speak against it’s own just to please few men and party. What did they run on and got elected???. What freedom do they talk about?? Freedom is a distance between the church and state. Why it’s OK for a man to receive insurance paid Viagra to keep his weenie up but not Ok for woman to have a contraceptive agains that weenie. Since when religion moved in in the bedroom and tell me what to do, when, how etc etc. What’s wrong with PREVENTING a life than TAKING a LIFE. Ignorance is disguised as a piety. They talk about Christianity but doing the unchristian things.”” All it takes for evil to prevail is for the good men to do nothing” They pray on Sunday and kill on Monday. Hypocrites.
    “With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things, But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion” Steven Weinberg.

    “Indulging no passions which trespass on the rights, or the repose of other nations, it has been the glory of the United States to cultivate peace by observing justice, and to entitled themselves to the respect of the nations at war by fulfilling their neutral obligations with the most scrupulous impartiality” J. Madison. What happened to my UNITED States of America.? Since when we became United States of Austerity?? (soon)Is there any hope???
    Through my business and clients, I hear all these complains, accusations but when I asked one of my clients a simple question. Why you against the bail out when in reality did save a lot of jobs and kept the economy going off the cliff and adding to the deficit. Why NOBODY raised a question or complain that it will add more to the deficit when Bush OK the $600 stimulus checks and people a cheering about piddly $600.00??? Oh, I forgot about it. But it was only $600.00. I said, but it is the middle class that keeps this economy going by spending, while the rich get theirs in millions and sit on it.The middle class could benefit if the stimulus from Obama had gone to each working American family that makes less than 100K a stimulus or even taxable grant in the amt. of 200K each family with stipulation that they pay off their mortgage, buy house, pay off student loans, CC, buy cars, or start businesses. I said do the math and add it up.. Charge flat tax on the grant @10% and state takes @5% it’s still enough money to paid up some of their debt. Money goes right back to the economy, housing market would not collapse but would increase, more jobs will be created. State will have a smal cash infusion. I said it takes money to make money. Supply and demand create jobs and keep economy going. MIDDLE class is the back bone of economy. She said all this is accountant talk. I said yes I crunch numbers everyday, thats my business. (CPA)GOP do not understand that nor some of the people. But like Carl Sagan said – “You can’t convince a believer of anything: for their belief is not based on evidence, it’s based on a deep seated need to believe”
    By the way – Mutt horse deductions – all legal by tax code if he list him as a business and pays for boarding, training etc. It goes as business expense. My understanding is that Ann owns 1/4 of the horse (1 leg) with friends, therefore all can legally take tax write offs as a business expense. Ann’s flight/hotel etc to England for the Olympics is a legal write offs. Meals @50%.
    I have a ex race horse TB that was retrained to be dressage horse and my daughter did competed in some of the shows and won some ribbons, but I truly never deducted his keep on my taxes because he is a family member, and considered a pet. Now he is 25 yrs old and out in the pasture. I rescued him from abuse and slaughter house when he was only 8 yrs old. If I incorporated him into a show horse etc and go anywhere with him I would travel the world with him and taken a write offs. I know the game. But it would be morally wrong and greedy. Few bucks wont make me or break me. For Mutt it’s a deal I guess and obviously he is a penny pincher. How much he will take it with him?? By the way I HAVE NO IDEA HOW HE COULD ACCUMULATE HIS IRA. There is a cap how much you can contribute a year. That goes for ROTH also. I am looking at some of the ways how he did it. Also, I truly think that he is not showing his past income taxes because he made so much money and paid very little tax or none at all and collected refunds for all the losses and bankrupcies. He bankrupted about 8 corp + in 9 yrs and made millions. for himself and his investors.
    Honest man have nothing to hide.

  • Don

    I have a problem. The rich man pays 13% tax and his poor secretary pays 15% tax. I thought everything was supposed to be equal. I know the rich man pays more, but he also own more. The poor secretary pays less, but she owns even less. [ As far as the rich man going to heaven, he would have to give all his money, but that is another story.]