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Tuesday, October 16, 2018
Howard Hill
Republican U.S. presidential candidates and U.S. Senators Cruz and Rubio shake hands and talk at the end of the debate held by Fox News for the top 2016 U.S. Republican presidential candidates in Des Moines

Should Evangelical Voters Trust Trump? Cruz? Rubio? Not So Much

So how would Iowa’s evangelical Christian voter be served by those three leading candidates — Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz? If history has any predictive power, not too well.

January 31, 2016

Will The GOP Turn The CBO Into A Fantasy League?

Republican plans to cook the books bode poorly for future policy discussions.

December 23, 2014

How To Tell If The Next Financial Crisis Is Upon Us

These three conditions and warning signs will signal if we’re in real trouble.

December 9, 2014

Are We There Yet? The Next Big Crash Might Be Around the Corner

How cheap gas prices could signal a major problem for the market.

December 8, 2014

Understanding Net Neutrality: We Need A Better Analogy

“Free market” advocates can’t answer this one simple question about Net Neutrality.

November 17, 2014

One More Step Toward The Next Meltdown

The delaying tactics we told you about nearly two years ago have worked beautifully. The bailout worked (if not for homeowners, at least for the banks). It worked so well that the underlying problems that led to the financial crisis have remained largely ignored. The regulations that have been written (and continue to languish during […]

June 27, 2014

Why The Congressional Majority Likes Sequester

We hear that 800,000 civilian employees of the Department of Defense will get an automatic 20-percent cut in hours and pay. That’s a hell of a lot more than the percentage cut to the Department. Why? Because nobody is cutting the pay to contractors that are non-human “persons.” In fact, some defense contractors are going […]

February 26, 2013

The Pundit Watchlist

Over the next couple of months, the American public can expect an ever-louder din of opinions as we approach the next bogus political standoff — the debt ceiling hostage crisis. Bogus? I’m not saying it isn’t a crisis when elected public servants threaten to sabotage our country and the world economy. It certainly is. That’s […]

January 6, 2013

Lobbyists: The Best Risk Arbitrage Your Money Can Buy

When I began investing decades ago, one of the earliest versions of hedge fund strategies was to simultaneously buy the stock of a “target” company in a takeover and sell the stock in the company that was doing the purchase. They call it “risk arbitrage,” where the risk is that the announced deal might not happen.  […]

January 3, 2013

The Foreclosure Cliff

We can thank Ben Bernanke for the phrase “fiscal cliff” – a phrase many observers have tried to soften by pointing out they think it’s more like falling down a slope, sliding down a curve, or even tripping over a curb. I can understand trying to find other metaphors to replace the nearly always fatal […]

December 30, 2012

This Horse Is Dead

When asked for my reaction to the spectacular failure of Team Romney’s Get Out The Vote (GOTV) computer system touted as the secret weapon that would defeat Team Obama on Election Day, I thought it was like beating a dead horse. The way Team Romney failed and tried to hide it explains why Karl Rove […]

November 11, 2012

Even Fox News Admits It

Obama is a better manager than Romney, and that’s why he won the election. At least, that’s how the Fox News commentators explained Tuesday’s defeat. While some might say that the economic and social policies the GOP offered were just an inferior product, the reality that a president got re-elected while unemployment is nearly 8% […]

November 8, 2012

Choosing The Right Manager For The Biggest Business On Earth

On Tuesday we’re going to give a manager a new four-year contract to manage the U.S. Government. It’s a big job. The manager we choose will be running the biggest business on earth. Mitt Romney thinks he’s qualified. In fact, he thinks he’s the only candidate who has actually managed a business and the only […]

November 5, 2012

Leveraged Returns, Election Style

If you could make a 50/50 bet for a dollar, and the payoff was 10 dollars each year for the next four, would you take that bet? In option-speak, that’s like buying a call option for a dollar with an expected value of $20. Of course you would, and that’s exactly why the 2012 presidential […]

November 2, 2012

Debate Arithmetic, Round Two

Mitt Romney’s most glaring arithmetic falsehoods from the first debate reappeared last night, along with some new ones. It’s still impossible to spend more and take in less without increasing the deficit. It’s also impossible to cut domestic spending drastically without increasing unemployment, and most people realize that claiming four years is the same as […]

October 17, 2012

Mitt Romney’s Fuzzy Debate Math

Let’s take Mitt Romney at his word, and see how the numbers he cited during Wednesday night’s debate add up. We can begin with a pop quiz in Presidential arithmetic: If you have a $1.3 trillion annual deficit, and you are going to make it shrink to zero without raising any tax, how many new jobs […]

October 4, 2012