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Saturday, October 22, 2016

According to a Hays Research Group survey, Alaska senator Mark Begich (D) would hold a comfortable lead over Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell (R) in a hypothetical 2014 matchup.

The poll finds Begich leading Treadwell 50 percent to 39 percent, with 9 percent undecided. It sampled 388 likely voters, and has a +/- 4.9 percent margin of error.

Begich’s lead is consistent with other early polls of the race, which have found the incumbent holding a narrow advantage over Treadwell, who is widely considered to be the favorite to win the Republican nomination (barring an extremely unlikely bid from former governor Sarah Palin).

“Begich is in a good position at this point in the race, but he shouldn’t get too comfortable with more than 400 days before the general election. Treadwell has a good base of support considering the Lt. Governor has barely kicked off his campaign efforts,” Hays Research Group research director Adam Hays said in a statement.

“Begich, however, has strong support among Alaskan voters who identify themselves as moderate or somewhere in the middle between conservative and liberal, and getting votes from this group is key to winning an election in Alaska,” he added.

Begich’s strong early numbers represent a major concern for Republicans, who will likely need to win his seat in order to claim a Senate majority in the 2014 midterm elections. Assuming they hold all of their seats — which is hardly a given, in light of the strong Democratic candidates in Georgia and Kentucky — Republicans would need to defeat three Democratic incumbents in red states to win the majority. With Senators Kay Hagan (D-NC) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA) polling very well in the early going, Alaska may be a must-win for the GOP. Based on Begich’s early numbers, it seems likely to be an uphill battle.

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Copyright 2013 The National Memo
  • TheSkalawag929

    I hope that he doesn’t let an early lead go to his head and cause him to let his guard down.

  • howa4x

    Considering the last senate race where an independent beat the republican tea party candidate he just needs to keep doing what he’s doing and let the republican move to the right

  • Pamby50

    I sure hope that all three keep running their races as if they were down in the polls. Don’t take anything for granted.

  • Barbara Morgan

    Don’t stop the fight the public is fickle, he is ahead today but that can change in a heartbeat. All of us that want the Republicans to lose the House and more seats in the Senate needs to be working on that now. Getting the truth out to the red states, seniors and so on about how when they vote Republican they are voting against their own self interest.
    This doesn’t have to do with Alaska’s election but it does Ohio, John Bohner home state. I hope that his Democratic opponent next year gets a copy a speech or news thing not sure which where his 2nd wife(who is either Japanese American or a naturalized American citizen from Japan) was bad mouthing American workers calling them lazy, spoiled brats and other unflattering things while Bohner stands beside her either smiling or grinning was never sure which and never opened his mouth to defend the American workers he is suppose to be representing the whole time then walked off with her hand in hand. If the working people of his district sees that speech by Mrs Bohner don’t think it will make any difference how the Republicans have messed up his district to keep him in office, he won’t win. Matter of fact what she said should be shown everywhere there is an election for Congress next year, it shows exactly what the Republican -Tea party politicans and their rich backers thing of the working people in this Country.