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Friday, October 21, 2016

A new survey of likely voters in the 12 states where control of the Senate is being contested shows that the race between Democrats and Republicans is very close, but Democrats could pull ahead by conveying a populist economic message and attacking Republicans on women’s issues.

The poll, which was conducted by Democracy Corps and the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, shows Republican candidates with a 46 to 44 percent lead over Democratic candidates in these states, which Mitt Romney collectively won by 9 percent in 2012.

The poll finds that unmarried women are the “most important target” for Democrats. When these voters are shown the economic messages from both parties, their support for Democrats shifts from +11 to +20. The Democratic message advocates for raising the minimum wage, ensuring that women are paid equally, and providing support for working mothers, while the Republican message attacks Obamacare and big government, and accuses President Obama of failing on the economy. Attacks on Republicans are far more successful with this demographic than attacks on Democrats.

Democrats have the disadvantage of the president’s lowly 37 percent favorability rating, but Republicans are also extremely unpopular. The poll finds that House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)’s agenda not only hurts House Republicans, but Senate Republicans as well.

Meanwhile, the Democratic incumbents in these states have higher favorability ratings than President Obama, and they are better liked than their Republican opponents.

The poll also found that voters are split on whether or not it matters that Republican candidates support the Hobby Lobby decision. But it’s still a very powerful issue for women.

Voters are also split on the Affordable Care Act, though those who want it repealed feel more strongly than those who support the law.

And a debate over campaign spending and big money increases Democratic support.

In a press call, Democracy Corps’ Stan Greenberg said that support for Democrats among women is way lower than it was in 2012 because of the struggling economy and the lack of action in Congress.

“[It’s] their perception of total gridlock in Washington,” he explained.

Greenberg also thinks that Democrats haven’t successfully pushed a populist economic message, as they have mostly tried to appeal to women through issues such as access to abortion. But if they focus on both equal pay and women’s health before November, he believes they’ll have a better chance of keeping the Senate.

“Democrats have not been speaking to them,” he said. “[The] president’s economic message has been benign.”

Page Gardner, the president of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, agreed. She thinks there will be a “shift” in voter participation “once there are messages that are aimed at [women’s] lives.”

Once unmarried women become more invested in the midterms, she thinks they’ll have a huge impact on the results.

“In the 12 battleground states where we conducted today’s poll with Democracy Corps, it’s increasingly clear that Senate candidates can’t win without the votes of unmarried women,” Gardner wrote in a statement. “Unmarried women favor Democrats in the battlegrounds by 50 to 39, a sizable difference. Unmarried women are poised to make the difference this election year.”

Photo: Crazy George via Flickr

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  • Lynda Groom

    Never underestimate the ignorance of the average Joe. Indeed there is no valid reason for the Democrats to lose the Senate, or too not regain some seats in the House. However reason and reality rarely meet in todays political environment. The seeds of hear, hate and distrust of our institutions have been eroded over the past few decades by forces well financed and backed by the powerful. I hope the voters are wise to these actions, but history suggest otherwise.

    • michaeljashley

      until I saw the paycheck which said $8694 , I didn’t believe that my
      sister was like trully erning money part time on there computar. . there
      friends cousin had bean doing this for only thirteen months and resantly
      repayed the dept on their home and bought themselves a Infiniti . check out the
      post right here C­a­s­h­f­i­g­.­C­O­M­

  • Dominick Vila

    Public opinion is shifting in some red states, especially in the Midwest, in favor of Democrats. Obviously, it is still too early to tell, but if the trend continues and Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the foot with their outrageous statements, there is a good chance that we may keep control of the Senate.
    Unfortunately, that is not the case in the House, where Republicans are poised to increase their majority as a result of more Democrats than Republicans running for re-election, and some of them being from red districts.

  • Patricia Robertson

    The with democrats is they don’t want to be seen with the president but yet they want the president to campaign for them because they know he can get a crowd out. He is the only one who can make the basis come out to vote, the rest of them act as if they are too afraid to open their mouths and speak back to the republicans. He will speak loud and clear for them to hear him and don’t mind doing it, but they speak all quiet like a pin is going to drop. He will answer the questions even if he don’t like the questions but the rest of act so scared. The republicans can lie loud and proud and that he why they are heard and believed and that is what the democrats have to do, Tell the truth loud and be heard, and then people will believe them.

  • FT66

    All in all it will depend which Party can organise and mobilise people to go and vote. Mid-term elections should be treated equally the same like General Elections. I am a true believer that Dems learnt the mistake they did in 2010 and won’t be repeated again come Nov. 2014.

  • ExRadioGuy15

    Here’s the thing people keep forgetting about Gubernatorial and US Senate races: the whole state votes….
    Yes, starting in 2011, the GOP began gerrymandering everything they could in the states where they have power, but that only applies to state House/Assembly and Senate and US House races. You can’t “gerrymander” US Senate and Gubernatorial races. That’s one of several reasons that political prognosticating websites/organizations are predicting that the best the GOP can do is to pick up four seats in the US Senate, which would still leave them in the minority.
    And, even if the GOP does well enough to take the majority, they’re not going to be able to get 67-seat supermajority that they’d need to overcome Presidential vetoes and, more importantly, remove an impeached federal public official (say, President Obama, for example). The GOP will only be able to continue with their Insurrectionist and Seditious obstruction policies currently being employed.
    The “OMG, the GOP are gonna take over the Senate” hysteria have turned those people who spew it into “Chicken Littles”. Stop it…you’re embarrassing yourselves. If anything, Democrats should be working to gain at least five seats to get the 60-seat supermajority needed to overcome the the GOP’s favorite and juvenile piece of obstruction policy, the filibuster.

    • Allan Richardson

      The only way to gerrymander the Senate is to change state lines. Texas has long threatened to break into five states (the borders were drawn the day it entered the Union the first time), with possibly four of them likely to elect Republicans (the Hispanics and liberals of Austin predominating in one or two of them), and now California may be voting this year on breaking into SIX states. At least one, the northern agricutural area called Jefferson, would probably be a Tea Party red state. The Bay area and the Los Angeles area would surely be blue, but not sure about the rest of Southern California.

      Nobody WITHIN the Democratic party or any of the campaigns has yelled “the sky is falling,” but they have been reminding us that the sky COULD fall if we don’t contribute enough money AND effort to get the votes out. Also that the sky COULD fall if Republican voter suppression efforts outweigh Democratic get out the vote efforts.

  • Braven Eworld

    I think we can all agree that Paul Krugman’s primitive superstitions are dangerously delusional.