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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Poll: Gomez Within Striking Distance Of Markey In Massachusetts Special Election

Poll: Gomez Within Striking Distance Of Markey In Massachusetts Special Election

Could Republican Gabriel Gomez pull off a shocking upset in Massachusetts’ special Senate election?

According to a new internal poll released by Gomez’s campaign, the GOP underdog is within striking distance of his Democratic opponent, U.S. representative Ed Markey. The poll finds Markey leading Gomez by just three points, 46 to 43 percent — 11 percent remain undecided.

The poll was conducted May 5-7 by OnMessage Inc., a Republican firm, and has a +/- 3.4 percent margin of error.

Gomez’s surprising strength is built on his personal popularity and strong numbers among independents — 43 percent of voters view Gomez favorably, while 15 percent view him unfavorably; that 28 percent spread outpaces Markey, who is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 35 percent. Among independent voters — a critical constituency for a Republican candidate in deep-blue Massachusetts — Gomez leads Markey 50 to 36 percent, with 14 percent undecided.

“The results of our statewide survey are in and the race is razor thin,” pollster Wes Anderson said, as reported by “The data is clear; Gabriel Gomez stands a very good chance of defeating Congressman Ed Markey this June.”

The OnMessage poll echoes the results of recent polls from Public Policy Polling and Emerson College, which showed Markey leading Gomez by 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Those results stand in stark contrast to the last Suffolk7News poll, which found Markey leading by 17 percent.

Gomez is attempting to follow in the footsteps of Scott Brown, who rode a decisive advantage among independent voters to a huge upset win in Massachusetts’ 2010 special election. Brown’s 2012 re-election campaign provides a warning sign for Gomez, however. Although Brown had an impressive 60 to 38 percent favorability rating — higher than Elizabeth Warren’s 56 to 43 percent mark — Warren still won the race by a comfortable 8 percent margin, underscoring how difficult it is for Republicans to overcome the Bay State’s partisan gap.

AP Photos, File

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  • The biggest risk for Markey is the likelihood of low voter turnout. Based on what I have read on this subject, the people of Massachussetts are not engaged and are not too enthusiastic with either candidate. If that proves to be true, the son of Colombian immigrants has a good chance to pull an upset that may have serious consequences to the Democrats ability to keep control of the Senate in 2014. With 21 Dems and only 14 GOP senators running for re-election next year, and some of those Dems being from red states, the probability of Democrats losing seats is very likely. A victory by Gomez would set the stage for the GOP to have full control of both chambers.

  • charleo1

    I gotta say, I’m very concerned about this one. I like Ed Markey. His support
    for revitalizing the Middle Class, and and empowering the people of the United
    States, aganist the big money special interests, is without question. He is what
    the Country needs badly at this time. And What President Obama needs. As the
    lockstep obstruction of the GOP, continues unabated. But, make no mistake,
    Gabriel Gomez, is no pushover. He is smart, he is engaging, and for a newcomer,
    he acts like he’s been in politics all his life. If only that were the case, he might
    have a record with which to identify him with the voters. Instead, he is a former
    Navy Seal, combat veteran. Who couches the Right Wing, Conservative agenda
    in terms that would have even the most hardened warrior for social justice, and
    the common man, nodding their head in approval. Oh! did I mention he was also
    Hispanic, and good looking?

  • disqus_ivSI3ByGmh

    Scott Brown won because the Democrats self-destructed their campaign by not having any “A-List” candidates in the primary, all the while, Brown toured the state in his pick-up pretending to be one of the “regulah people”. Once his true self emerged, the state realized his guy was no Edwin Brooke, but rather a lightweight poser. Brown is now scoping out his options to run in a more Conservative state, like New Hampshire or Maine.
    Any polling that is conducted by either a right or left leaning group will give in questionable results. They too often target areas that will lead to skewed results as opposed to a poll with demographic breakdowns that offers a more balanced view. Also, Mass voters may still have buyers’ remorse over the last couple of Republicans they elected to state wide office.

  • gopersareignorant

    Hard to fathom that Massachusetts voters would be so stupid as to redo a brown type Senator. I understand the corruption of the democrats but they are far far better than any tool the retàrdicans could offer up, in any state.