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Friday, October 21, 2016

Poll: Mark Pryor Trails Tom Cotton In Arkansas Senate Race

Poll: Mark Pryor Trails Tom Cotton In Arkansas Senate Race

According to a poll released Monday by conservative pollster Kellyanne Conway, Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR) trails his Republican opponent, U.S. Representative Tom Cotton, 48 percent to 41 percent in his race for a third term.

Though Pryor remains the more well-known candidate in the contest, his popularity among Independents and women is slipping. Cotton leads the Democratic congressman by 21 points among Independents and 4 points among women – not a good sign for the incumbent.

An even grimmer finding is that though Cotton is relatively unknown, he is viewed favorably by 39 percent of Arkansas voters, not far behind the 44 percent who say the same of Pryor. The Republican is viewed unfavorably by 26 percent of likely voters, while Pryor is viewed unfavorably by a greater 39 percent.

Pryor’s support for the Affordable Care Act may be the reason for his declining popularity.

According to David N. Bossie, president of the conservative non-profit Citizens United (for whom the poll was conducted), Pryor – who voted for the Affordable Care Act, but later voiced support for delaying the law and then co-sponsored the “Keeping the Affordable Care Act Promise Act” – is now “synonymous with Obamacare.”

“And Obamacare is synonymous with making life worse for the American people,” Bossie added. “That’s why Pryor is losing to Cotton in the Arkansas Senate race.”

The health care law is especially disliked by Arkansans, 62 percent of whom said they have an unfavorable view of the Affordable Care Act – “56 percent strongly so,” according to Politico. The lack of support is hardly surprising, considering its botched launch and Arkansas’ shift further right.

Pryor’s support for the law has been the subject of various attacks from the Cotton campaign, which claimed that the Democratic senator “cut Medicare to pay for Obamacare.”

Still, Pryor maintains that despite his support for the Affordable Care Act, he remains ahead of his Republican challenger.

“It’s no surprise that Congressman Cotton’s special-interest backers have commissioned a bogus poll that wildly misses where we know this race stands,” says Erik Dorey, Pryor’s deputy campaign manager.

“Mark is ahead, and Arkansans still have a lot to learn about Cotton’s reckless votes to gut Medicare and Social Security, blow up the Farm Bill and end affordable student loans,” Dorey affirmed.

Dorey may have a point; according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average of the race, Cotton and Pryor remain in a statistical dead heat.

The poll, conducted from December 6 – 7, surveyed 400 likely voters in Arkansas and has a margin of error +/- 4.9 percent.

Photo: Uacescomm via Flickr

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Copyright 2013 The National Memo
  • disqus_ivSI3ByGmh

    Since when have Republican candidates ever allowed the facts to get in the way of a good smear campaign?

  • NCSteve

    At the bottom of this poll by someone I’d never heard of before:

    Methodology Statement

    the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a telephone survey of 400 likely voters in Arkansas from December 6 – 7, 2013. Surveys were conducted using live interviewers at a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The results were weighted by party ID; quotas were used to ensure proper representation of age, gender, and region.

    This survey was comprised of 29% self-identified Republicans, 32% self-identified Democrats, and 35% Independents. Independents were then asked if they lean towards either party; including leaners, Republicans comprise 40% of the survey, Democrats comprise 36%, and Independents who do not lean towards either party comprise 20% of the electorate.

    For those who didn’t take a survey research course in college, we have a) weighting to achieve a pre-determined party ID balance without disclosure of where that presumed balance came from, a small sample size and a likely voter filter without any disclosure of what factors were used to determine whether someone was likely to vote. All from a “polling company” run by this lady:

    In short, there’s every indication that this isn’t a poll, it’s a “poll” that was methodologically buggered six ways from Sunday to ensure it reached the desired result.

    And that’s par for the course if you’re a pollster for the party that doesn’t believe in empirical evidence, science, math and rejects the notion that expertise confers greater credibility. If you don’t give them the results they want, they’ll find a pollster who does.

    • tdm3624

      Nice research!