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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of July 6:


A Rasmussen Reports survey released on Thursday has incumbent senator Mary Landrieu (D) ahead of Republican congressman Bill Cassidy by 3 points, 46 to 43 percent. That’s within the poll’s +/- 4 percent margin of error. Five percent like another candidate in the race, and 6 percent are still undecided.

Landrieu has negative favorability ratings, as 47 percent of voters view her favorably and 49 percent unfavorably. Cassidy has a more positive image, as voters view him favorably by a 49 to 31 percent margin. The rest of the voters don’t know who Cassidy is, or aren’t sure how they feel about him.

The Affordable Care Act and the Keystone XL pipeline are both going to be key issues in this race. Only 36 percent of Louisianans like the Affordable Care Act, while 62 percent do not. Landrieu stands by her vote for the law, but has proposed altering it to help people keep their old health care plans, and to minimize the law’s effects on small businesses. Cassidy, of course, wants to repeal the law.

Of Louisiana voters, 64 percent support building the Keystone XL pipeline, while only 14 percent are opposed. Both candidates support the pipeline. President Obama has not revealed his position on Keystone XL, which faces opposition from environmentalists and some Democrats.

The Real Clear Politics poll average has Cassidy ahead by 1 percent.


Democratic senator Mark Pryor is behind Congressman Tom Cotton by 3 points, according to the latest poll from the Republican-leaning Impact Management Group. Cotton has 47 percent of the vote, while Pryor has 43 percent; 10 percent are still undecided. The poll has a +/- 2.72 percent margin of error.

Independents overwhelmingly sided with Cotton in the poll, with 56 percent supporting him and only 28 percent backing Pryor.

The Affordable Care Act is a major issue in this election. The poll asked if voters support the “private option” plan passed by the Arkansas legislature, which allows the state to use federal Medicaid funds to purchase private insurance for low-income Arkansans.. Only 35 percent said they favored the private option, while 44 percent opposed it. This negative sentiment regarding health care reform could hurt Pryor in the general election.

The two candidates are currently squabbling over Cotton’s recent comments regarding Pryor’s faith. In a KNWA interview about the Hobby Lobby ruling, Cotton said he thinks Pryor believes that “faith is something that only happens at 11 o’clock on Sunday mornings.”

Pryor emphasized his faith in an ad this week and asked Cotton to apologize.

The Real Clear Politics poll average shows that Cotton is ahead by 2.8 points. But every poll that has Cotton ahead of Pryor is from a Republican firm.


An InsiderAdvantage poll released on Thursday finds that GOP Senate candidates Jack Kingston and David Perdue are essentially tied. Kingston has the support of 41.9 percent of likely voters, while Perdue has 41.2 percent, and 17 percent are still undecided. The poll has a +/- 2.7 percent margin of error.

The primary runoff is on July 22. In the original primary, Perdue won 30.6 percent of the vote, while Kingston won 25.8 percent.

The winner of the runoff will face Democrat Michelle Nunn in the general election, which is also likely to be a close race. The Real Clear Politics poll average for the general election shows Perdue ahead of Nunn by 2.3 percent, and Nunn ahead of Kingston by 1.7 percent.


The latest Survey USA poll has Republican governor Rick Scott ahead of Democrat Charlie Crist 45 to 43 percent, with a +/- 4.2 percent margin of error; 7 percent back another candidate, and 5 percent are undecided.

Though Crist used to be a Republican, he is no longer popular with his former party. Only 13 percent of Republicans support him, while 79 percent back Scott. Crist doesn’t have much Independent support — 47 percent would vote for Scott, while only 35 percent want Crist to be governor again.

The Real Clear Politics poll average has Crist ahead by 2 points.

Photo via Wikimedia Commons

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Copyright 2014 The National Memo
  • Budjob

    If individuals don’t have a lot of money in the bank,WHY WOULD THEY VOTE FOR A REPUBLICAN???

    • Mark Forsyth

      Good question.I wouldn’t vote republican if I were a millionaire.Now watch some deadbeat troll come on here to tell me that’s the reason I’m not rich.

    • ralphkr

      Shucks, Budjob, I am far from rich but even further from being poor because most of my income comes from investments made when I was a wage slave (my pension is based on my average wage of $25K) and vote Democrat because I like how my income exceeded over $100K with Clinton and finally exceeded $100K last year with Obama after having stumbled along at well under $60K with the two Bush presidents. The only reason anyone would vote Republican is if they enjoy being at war and having the economy go into the tank.

      Historically, our economy is good with Democratic Presidents and tanks with Republican Presidents. So much for the Republican party being the Business Party.

      • Budjob

        ralphkr,I and my wife did indeed do very well during the Clinton era and so far with Obama.The other reasons I and my family vote Democratic is,the Demcrats aren’t borderline insane and for the most part don’t have racist tendencies.

  • Mikey7a

    With Crist and Scott being our only real choices, it is damned if you do, or don’t. I will vote for Crist, but I’m afraid that two thirds of my state, are rural, uneducated, uninformed, idiots. The very people who need the most help from the State, continue to vote against their own best interests. Now, with a Judge deciding that the 5th District was illegally drawn, we will lose another predominantly Democrat district in the House. Things couldn’t be more bleak, down here in the Sunshine up my ass State!

    • RobertCHastings

      The Fifth IS drawn to represent a salamander, and was drawn for one purpose only. To accomodate that configuration, the surrounding districts had to undergo some tranformations as well. Undoubtedly, when they are drawn to represent legitimate demographics, Florida will probably turn blue.

      • Allan Richardson

        Legislative districts that are “safe” for minority districts are a relic of the early civil rights era, when visibility of minority members was crucial. Unfortunately, the conservative Republicans have taken advantage of the desire of voters to elect a few of “their own” and colluded with incumbent minority Democrats to put WAY more Democrats (white and minority) in those few districts than are needed to elect a Democrat, making those few seats “safe” for the Democratic party (and for the incumbent), while taking enough Democrats (white and minority) out of a larger NUMBER of districts to make THOSE districts “safe” for Republican no matter how crazy the Republican candidates (and incumbents) might be. Take Allen West, PLEASE!

        If the Fifth District (formerly the Third, as an old T shirt for Corrine which I keep as a memento will testify) is redrawn to put some of its black voters, and white Democrats, in some neighboring districts, those districts will become more competitive, i.e. either a Democrat or a Republican could win them, and the Fifth will become less “safe” for Corrine. However, her successor, while not necessarily a black person, would almost certainly be a Democrat and an advocate of equal rights for black and other minority voters.

        The questions are (1) is it better for minority voters to have a few guaranteed districts where their party AND members of their race have a lock on those few seats, or to have more competitive districts where a Democrat (even a “white” one) has at least a good CHANCE to defeat a Republican? And (2) is it better to have incumbents of both parties having guaranteed safe seats, particularly when this guarantees the party with fewer statewide (or nationwide) voters a permanent majority in the state House (or Congress)?

        As much as I respect what Corrine has done and continues to do (and I am a white guy who has no problem with office holders of any “race” or ethnicity, as long as they are not Ferengi (from Star Trek), of which we have too many disguised as Republican humans already), she is not perfect and she has been accused of some minor unethical behavior, and if she had to fight for her seat against challengers of both parties, the likelihood is that whoever would win that seat would NOT be a Ferengi Republican, and would work for the best interests of the people of that district, even if it was not a black person. And other districts would have a better chance to elect someone of either party with those extra Democrats voting … maybe even a black Democrat elected by mostly white voters (it happened in the mayoral race in Jacksonville, which includes part of the Fifth, in 2011).

      • 1standlastword

        Turn blue precisely but due to NO healthcare leading to death from medical conditions otherwise prevented with access to healthcare.

  • Landsende

    A poor man voting for a republican is like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders!

  • terry b

    The republican party is plagued with one terrible candidate after the other. The entire party seems to espouse an almost fascist brand of politics every day that passes. They love to stop things from moving forward. They are mainly responsible for congresses lowest rankings ever. People have to move social issues out to the front as much as possible to make the GOP look bad. Not that they need much help in that!

    • Allan Richardson


      • terry b

        yes Allan. Even people like me make mistakes sometimes. I can’t find a republican official in the nation that doesn’t seem to espouse fascist views. I stand corrected and I thank you.

    • 1standlastword

      That’ an excellent point. Bush destroyed the executive office and now the Tea Party has destroyed the legislative branch and the 5 majority is actively destroying the judicial branch. At this rate who can trust any republican

      • terry b

        Well said. You can’t get much more articulate when describing he horrors of one wing of our party system.

  • Blueberry Hill

    Certainly not, Obama would be good for the Dems, they would be wrong to back away from him, and likely to make Dems sit on their hands.


  • ralphkr

    The way I see it the high information Democratic voters will stay home as usual during mid-term elections while the low information voters, including those who have been helped by Obamacare because the Republicans shall have convinced they that their good fortune was due to Republican efforts, will listen to the haters and vote Republican. I loved the poll from some time ago that found that the majority of voters were AGAINST Obamacare but were FOR ACA (what a difference a name makes).

  • rustacus21

    WHAT?! Is that a question? Why is this even framed as a ‘… woe are poor Dems…’, when Republicans have walked all over their state’s & national constituencies & spitting on them after kicking dirt on them!!! What are they going to do? They’re going to FIGHT!!! If they want Congress & keep the Senate, stop acting like they’ve never been in a fight in their lives & by the way, LEARN TO FIGHT DIRTY, B/C THAT’S HOW REPUBLICANS ARE COMING TO THE FIGHT!!! Low blows. Scratching. Biting. Tripping. Using ‘ILLEGAL’ weapons (unlimited money by the ultra rich & corporate ‘persons’ who we ALL KNOW hate Democracy, but engage in it, only to assist in it’s destruction!!!!!!!) & crying like whimps when they get whipped!!! Democrats better grow a pair, b/c the American people are sick of the Reids, Landrieus & all the others fretting about ‘…oh, what do I do, they have more money…’ DAMN the MONEY – TELL THE TRUTH & WHAT U PLAN TO DO TO RESCUE THE COUNTRY FROM CONSERVATIVE CRAZY POLICIES & BEHAVIORS!!!! Try THAT for a change!!!

    • Do you mean dirty fighting like having the IRS target opposition groups? Or maybe allowing deceased and illegals to vote? What we need are civil servants that actually serve the people and not just themselves.

      • Jerry

        You’re right, kenndeb. We DO need civil servants that actually serve the people–all the people–, and Republicans don’t fit that bill. They are still the party of the rich no matter how much they try to deny it and cry about how they are trying to “help” the masses. Help by cutting Social Security benefits, cutting Medicare, cutting out food stamps (or cutting the budget for them during a time when more people than ever are needing them), cutting funding for school lunch and breakfast programs, cutting funding for preschools, cutting money for women’s clinics who do a lot more than being a place where one can get an abortion, and not voting to increase the minimum wage (while doing all they can to eliminate unions that might fight for their workers’ benefits, or better wages). Meanwhile, they sternly oppose returning the tax rate of the wealthiest back to where it was during the Clinton Administration when we were able to actually come up with balanced budgets for a couple of years and turned over a budget surplus to the last Bush Administration that managed to not only spend all of that, but then proceeded to produce budgets with the greatest deficits of any president to date and because of it, left the present one with the necessity of doing the same the first couple of years before now having the greatest reductions in deficits in our history. The Republicans also oppose regulations on Wall Street and the banking industry that when ended under President G.W. Bush led to the worse recession we’ve witnessed along with the two wars started under him. But, yes, we DO need civil servants who will serve the people of our country and not just the richest people in the country. Do you think the Koch brothers and other billionaires pouring in so much money to campaigns these days are doing so because they CARE about the majority of us? No, they are doing so to protect their own greedy interests with candidates they have bought and paid for and who do as they wish them to do. The Democratic Party has its flaws, too, but when comparing which party’s representatives will do the most for the good of the majority of Americans, the Democrats far outshine their Republican counterparts whether they be traditional Republicans, or Tea Party Republicans. Anyone who believe otherwise is just being blind to the facts and voting records of both.

        • rustacus21

          HERE-HERE!!! Well spoken & researched!!! If only more people had brought THIS knowledge to the polls in 2010 & 2012, to get Republicans out of Congress, we’re back to Clinton era peace & prosperity – GLOBALLY!!! Why would a Democrat FAIL to run on SUCCESS ANYWAY?! Landrieu (among others) better get her mind on winning & fast…

      • rustacus21

        … 1st off, do U’r homework… as to who & when the IRS, over, say, the last TWENTY YEARS, started spying on & PUNISHING (w/unfounded, baseless scrutiny). As to dead illegals voting, urban myth’s & legends die hard… if U’r implying that poll workers are so incompetent & would risk JAIL to HELP falsify identification for something so petty, when we ALL KNOW Liberal/Progressives are the majority of voters nation-wide & we don’t have to cheat… But check that IRS thing & get back to me…

  • charles king

    People just do some critical thinking and VOTE on your returns. Social Security works, Public schools work, Unions still work, Obamacare works,hike in the workers Wages work, Democracy works, the VOTE is still Supreme. know Who? are against these things that works and VOTE their sorry A***** out of office that goes for greedy capitalistic corporations Pigs, Plutocracts Who? goes around privatizing the Peoples’ Assets, Do-Nothingers Representives, GOP and DEM, Etcs. MONIES don’t mean a thing YOU the People has the VOTE so use it and Vote those losers OUT OUT OUT . Thank You are the magic words in my book. I Love Ya All. Mr. C. E. KING

  • Dec La’Ration

    Democracy is a false religion.

    • rustacus21

      I’ll let U in on a little secret; Democracy – American style, was invented by Liberal/Progressives to PROTECT the people from monarchal & religious abuses & brutality of that age, in the same way we now need a more ‘EVOLVED’ Democracy (or Polyarcy – rule by the many), so that we, in this age, can protect ourselves from the unruly rich & corporations that conservative propaganda has convinced ‘some’ American’s was suppose to be harmless, if they would just ‘worship’ the DEADLY, DESTRUCTIVE religion of money & capital greed… But this is America & people do have a choice. Choose wisely however, in this election year…