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Tag: international relations
The World Is Watching Donald Trump, And They’re Not Impressed

The World Is Watching Donald Trump, And They’re Not Impressed

The Economist Intelligence Unit has rated a Donald Trump presidency as one of its top 10 threats to global stability and security. Other threats included Britain leaving the European Union and Russia’s military action in the Ukraine and Syria leading to a new Cold War.

A Trump presidency was given a risk level identical to that of the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Explaining his inclusion on the list, the EIU noted areas such as Trump’s hostility towards free trade, his exceptionally right-wing stances on the Middle East and jiadhi terrorism, and his likelihood to engage in trade wars with countries like China.

According to Politico, this is the first time a presidential candidate’s election was rated a geopolitical risk to the U.S. and the world.

While Trump has many detractors within the U.S., it’s important to look beyond our borders to examine the impact his election would potentially have abroad, particularly when it comes to our traditional allies.

Early this year, the British parliament debated whether to ban Trump from entering their borders altogether, letting MPs, in an almost-Trumpian rhetorical shift, call the Republican frontrunner “poisonous,” “a buffoon” and a “wazzock,” which is British slang for “a stupid or annoying person.” In the past, the UK has banned individuals including U.S. pastor Terry Jones, who planned a Quran-burning protest.

Germany, one of the world’s strongest economic powers and a key leader in the European Union, has seen its fair share of negative reaction to the Trump phenomenon. One German lawmaker, following the UK’s lead, has called for Trump to be banned from Germany, as his “rants of hate against minorities and refugees could constitute the criminal offence of incitement of hatred.” German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Sigmar Gabriel also spoke out against Trump, labeling him a threat to global peace and prosperity. Trump has been highly critical of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s refugee policies throughout his campaign.

Concern for a Trump presidency extends beyond Europe, though. Trump has generated widespread disdain and outrage regarding for his comments about barring Muslim from the U.S. and claims that Islam is a religion that “hates us,” essentially decrying almost a quarter of the world’s population.

Trump has also expressed his belief that Saudi Arabia should have to pay the United States for “protection.” “In response to Trump’s hallucinations: God and Saudi Arabia’s army will protect it,” noted an editorial in a news site authorized by the Saudi Ministry of Information and Culture. Saudi prince and billionaire investor Prince AlWaleed bin Talal expressed his distaste for Trump via Twitter, claiming he bailed out Trump twice, and wondered if Trump needed a third bailout.

Even Israel, American’s closest ally in the Middle East (with their own tough-talker, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), doesn’t see eye-to-eye with Trump. According to an Israeli opinion poll by the Rafi Smith Polling Institute, only 14 percent of respondents support Trump, as opposed to the 41 percent that back Hillary Clinton. Netanyahu, who Trump stumped for in Israel’s 2013 election, also rejected Trump’s aforementioned call to ban Muslims from the U.S., and the Jerusalem Post has written that “Donald Trump may not be the best choice to repair American-Israeli relations in the post-Obama era.”

That’s just the start. According to Reuters, diplomats from India, South Korea, Japan and Mexico have all also expressed concern at the prospect of a Trump presidency, based on his xenophobic rhetoric.

As we roll into what CNN has helpfully named “Western Tuesday,” voters should remember: Trump is drawing the ire of even our staunchest allies abroad, and merely electing him would have a hugely negative impact on the perception of America internationally.

Photo: Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) afternoon general session in Washington March 21, 2016.      REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

Brouhaha Over Bank Reflects Shifting Power Dynamic Between US, China

Brouhaha Over Bank Reflects Shifting Power Dynamic Between US, China

By Julie Makinen, Los Angeles Times (TNS)

BEIJING — For years, U.S. officials have chafed at what they contend is Chinese freeloading on the world stage. While the United States has spilled blood and spent a fortune on vexing challenges such as Islamic extremism and African epidemics, China, the muttering goes, hangs back or even swoops in on Washington’s coattails to capitalize economically.

“They are free riders and have been free riders for the last 30 years, and it’s worked well for them,” President Barack Obama said of China in an interview last summer with The New York Times. “No one ever expects them to do anything.”

So when China, now the world’s second-largest economy behind the U.S., proposed in 2013 to establish a new bank to provide loans to fund infrastructure projects in developing Asian countries and invited other countries to participate, it might have sounded like just the kind of stepping up Washington had in mind.

But the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank would also be a challenger of sorts to U.S.-led institutions like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank (which is led by the U.S. and Japan). American officials sought to dissuade allies from taking part in the AIIB.

Publicly, U.S. authorities expressed concerns that a China-led development bank might not adhere to sufficiently high standards of transparency or environmental requirements. But many observers suspected such stated misgivings masked more fundamental U.S. worries about China eroding America’s pre-eminence on a global scale.

When the deadline for applying to be a founding bank member passed this week, China had notched 46 applications — including U.S. allies: Britain, Australia, France, Italy, Germany, and South Korea. Japan was nearly alone in refusing to break ranks with Washington.

Beijing, not surprisingly, has been crowing about it. “The soaring participation has been seen as evidence of China’s growing international sway,” the state-run Xinhua News Agency said in a news report. “If there is one message to glean from the number of applicants, it is that the world has sensibly voted for a more inclusive, balanced, and mutually beneficial international economic order.”

The Global Times, a nationalistic newspaper affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party, said in an editorial that the success in signing up so many partners “has pushed China toward becoming a ‘real major power.'” Founding the AIIB is a “big achievement for China,” it added, while taking oblique note of carping from unnamed quarters. “The greater the good deed is, the more trouble it will attract. The more a country does, the more it will be criticized.”

Appearing increasingly isolated, the Obama administration has come in for a drubbing for its handling of the affair. In a commentary for The Washington Post, Daniel W. Drezner, a professor of international politics at Tufts University and a fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, pointedly characterized the situation with an expletive suggesting a complete blunder.

The perception of sour grapes only grew when anonymous White House sources were quoted elsewhere griping about London’s “constant accommodation” of China.

Fundamentally, I do see it as a mismanagement of American diplomacy,” said Steve Tsang, head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham. “Yet at the same time, I don’t see it as huge victory for Chinese diplomacy.”

“If the U.S. had just acted like they didn’t care so much, it wouldn’t have been a big deal,” Tsang added. “The allies breaking rank with the U.S. is not so much about thinking that the U.S. is less important; it’s just that China is increasing in importance….When dealing with a rising power like China, there’s no real alternative to engagement; non-engagement won’t get you very far.”

Seeking to calm the waters, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew, who visited China early this week, said Tuesday in speech in San Francisco that America was “ready to welcome” the AIIB as long as it “complements” organizations like the IMF and the World Bank.

Xu Bin, a professor of economics and finance at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, said the bank is an attractive proposition for China for many reasons.

The country, he noted, now has extensive experience in infrastructure projects like building airports and railways, but its own economy is slowing and its industries have excess capacity. So assisting projects in other countries is helpful for Chinese companies going abroad.

At the same time, China has hefty foreign reserves that make establishing AIIB feasible, and its leaders want to internationalize the country’s currency, the renminbi, giving it more clout globally. And in areas like the South China Sea, where China’s oil exploration efforts and work to expand the land mass of contested islands have upset neighbors including Vietnam and the Philippines, the AIIB could be a means of smoothing relations.

In time, Xu predicted, the U.S. and Japan will join in. “I’m sure sooner or later the U.S. and Japan will participate, it’s just a question of how long. Only by participating can you influence it,” he said.

China’s open call for other countries to join the AIIB did pose some delicate political questions for authorities in Beijing. Longtime ally North Korea reportedly sought to join, the NK News website reported, but was rejected because the tightly controlled Communist state lacks a functional banking system.

Taiwan, meanwhile, apparently will have its application welcomed, even though Beijing does not acknowledge that the self-ruled island off its southeast coast is a separate country. China normally asks that other countries and international agencies reject any position or agreement that implies Taiwan has statehood.

Since taking office in 2008, Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, has pushed for trade agreements with other governments and participation in regional bodies that offer tariff cuts or other advantages to its export sector. Otherwise, the government fears, Taiwan will lose out to exporter rivals such as Japan and South Korea.

But Ma’s opponents worry that too-close economic ties with China will let Beijing erode the island’s self-rule. Small protests involving several dozen demonstrators broke out in Taipei this week when Taiwan said it intended to apply for AIIB membership.

Xu, of the China Europe International Business School, said he believed Taiwan’s participation would help it integrate more deeply with other Asian economies. For China, Xu said, the AIIB is a vehicle through which President Xi Jinping and other leaders in Beijing may be able to foster better relations across a wide swath of Asia.

“This is a breakthrough point for Xi Jinping,” said Xu. “China is emerging as a superpower in Asia, and many countries are afraid. Through this (AIIB), China can demonstrate it’s helpful and valuable, and not a threat.”

But Lew, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said Washington was still waiting to see how China would use its leading role in the AIIB to shape the region.

“With China’s economic growth and emerging focus on driving international development,” he said in San Francisco, “there is considerable interest in how China will integrate into the framework for international economic relations sustained since World War II, how it will use its new influence, and what ideas and ideals it will promote.”

Photo: David Dennis via Flickr

Diplomat John Tefft Navigates Sticky US-Russia Relations

Diplomat John Tefft Navigates Sticky US-Russia Relations

By Bill Glauber, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (TNS)

So, what exactly is the state of U.S.-Russian relations?

“Difficult,” said John Tefft, the Madison Wisconsin-born, Marquette University-educated U.S. ambassador to Russia.

In an interview this week with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Tefft reflected on his Wisconsin roots and diplomatic career and provided some insight into the often testy relationship between the United States and Russia. He is in Washington, D.C., this week for a series of meetings.

Tefft, 65, has been on the job in Moscow since September, when he was pulled out of a brief retirement by President Barack Obama’s administration.

A veteran with more than 40 years in the Foreign Service, Tefft is well-versed in the nuances of diplomacy.

Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin wasn’t seen in public for ten days, touching off rumors about his whereabouts. When he finally reappeared last week, Putin downplayed the controversy and told reporters, “It’s boring without gossip.”

Tefft said that what he had been told was that Putin had the flu.

“It’s kind of hard to understand why they don’t just say the boss is sick,” Tefft said.

Relations between the U.S. and Russia may be chilly, but Tefft presses on. He said he has been well-received by diplomatic pros plus many others he knew from a previous tour in Moscow.

“It’s obvious the relationship is not an easy one at this point and I work hard at it every day,” he said, adding that he gets out often to represent the United States and bring its message to Russia.

Tefft said the U.S. may get criticized in the Russian press but that “deep down Russians still have affection for Americans.”

The diplomat’s down-to-earth style is part of his Midwestern roots.

There’s still a lot of Wisconsin in him. Tefft collects hats from around the world and displays them in a room at his residence in Moscow. Amid dozens of baseball caps, he has not one but two cheeseheads.

“Most people who know me know what they are,” he said. “My reputation as a hat collector has already spread among most of the people I work with.”

The oldest of five children, Tefft’s father was an attorney and his mother was a social worker. As a child, he recalls his mother reading books and stories aloud, including the Russian folk tale of the witch, Baba Yaga.

At Edgewood High School in Madison, Tefft recalled how he had to choose between taking a course in physics and a course in Russian history.

“That was a no-brainer when it came to my science ability,” he said.

Tefft studied history at Marquette University, where he also met his future wife, Mariella Cellitti, a biology major. They married in January 1971 and Tefft graduated later that spring.

Tefft said his career in the Foreign Service, which started in 1972, is very much a shared partnership with his wife, a biostatistician and nurse. All told, they have made around 20 moves, including Tefft’s stints as an ambassador in Lithuania, Georgia, and Ukraine, as well as a posting as the chief of mission in Moscow in the late 1990s.

“When you look back on this it all looks like it has been planned,” Tefft said of his career. “But in fact it wasn’t. I just kind of followed my instincts and what I really liked.”

Through his long career, he has seen the ebb and flow of U.S.-Russian relations. Tefft joined the Soviet desk at the State Department in 1983.

“The first week I was there was the week the Korean airliner was shot down,” Tefft said, recalling the downing of a Korean Airlines passenger jet that went off its intended route and ventured into Soviet airspace.

“Not long afterward, the Soviets pulled out of arms control talks,” Tefft said. “So it was a very difficult period. All you can do is try to work through these periods and hope you can find some common ground to build things back.

“But you know, this is a relationship based on heavy competition as well as, I would argue, some serious cooperation over the years. It’s not always easy and the current situation isn’t.”

The current U.S.-Russia relationship has been on the rocks for more than a year since Russia annexed Crimea, which was part of Ukraine. Russia hasn’t backed down, despite facing economic sanctions from the West. The crisis has continued with fighting between pro-Russian separatists and Ukraine government forces.

In late February, Russia was rocked by the murder of a prominent Putin critic, opposition politician Boris Y. Nemtsov. Russian authorities arrested five ethnic Chechens. The larger question looms: Who ordered the murder?

Tefft, who met with Nemtsov’s mother, wife, and children, called the murder “such a terrible tragedy for Russia….He has done so many good things over his life for Russia and the Russian people. Those of us who knew him, I knew him in the 1990s, it just breaks your heart to see talented guys like this cut down.”

Photo: Federation Council via Flickr