Tag: mead treadwell
Alaska Tea Party Candidate Says He’ll Back Republican If He Loses Senate Primary

Alaska Tea Party Candidate Says He’ll Back Republican If He Loses Senate Primary

By Maria L. La Ganga, Los Angeles Times

The final days in the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate offered some only-in-Alaska moments, as when the three major candidates were asked in a debate about whether they’d eaten salmon in the last week.

Tea party candidate Joe Miller: “Yes.”

Front-runner Dan Sullivan: “Yes.”

Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, showing impressive culinary dedication to the Alaska state fish: “Yes, about five times.”

There were nasty national political disputes, one over the mailer Miller sent around depicting undocumented immigrants as menacing gang members. When Treadwell took the 47-year-old lawyer to task, Miller defended his stance, calling the document “the truth” and “real-world stuff.”

But the pivotal moment was one that Republicans worried might never happen. When asked if he would endorse a Republican rival against Democratic Sen. Mark Begich if he loses Tuesday’s primary, Miller finally said that he would.

“I believe I’m going to be the primary winner, with the voters’ and God’s help,” Miller said Thursday during the last televised debate in the race. “But if one of you two guys — I’ve never said this before: I’ll support you guys. I will. We’ve got to get rid of Begich. There’s no question about it.”

Miller has shaken up Republican politics in Alaska before, and the fear was that he would do it again by continuing on as an independent, splitting the conservative vote and allowing incumbent Begich to win.

That fear spoke to the stakes involved as Republicans try to knock off Begich, a first-term senator whose defeat would be critical to Republican hopes of taking over the Senate.

A third-party challenge would have been an odd echo of the last contentious Alaska Senate race, in 2010, in which the father of eight took on incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski in that cycle’s primary and beat her. Murkowski then turned around and launched a write-in campaign, and managed to keep her seat.

Many wrote Miller off for dead politically after that loss, and most polls show him a distant third behind Sullivan — who has served as state attorney general and U.S. assistant secretary of state — and Treadwell, largely in that order. He is also third in the race for campaign donations.

But Alaska is a notoriously tricky state to survey accurately, with its vast geography and sparse population. And Miller appears to have been closing the gap with his rivals.

Treadwell and Miller both have emphasized social issues on the campaign trail, even if the three men who would be senator gave nearly identical responses to a survey from Alaska Family Action.
All are in favor of a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. All would repeal the federal health-care law. All would overturn Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that recognized the right to abortion.

Treadwell, however, went one step further, noting that the only time abortion should be legal is “in the rare circumstances that the mother and child will die if the pregnancy continues and all other possible means to save the mother and child have been exhausted.”

Photo: Ryan McFarland via Flickr

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Disaster In Alaska? How Tuesday’s Primary Could Go Wrong For Republicans

Disaster In Alaska? How Tuesday’s Primary Could Go Wrong For Republicans

Alaska Republicans will head to the polls on Tuesday to select their candidate to oppose Democratic senator Mark Begich in November — and could end up repeating a critical mistake from four years ago.

Former Alaska attorney general and Department of Natural Resources commissioner Daniel Sullivan is appears to be the frontrunner; he has led every public poll of the race this year (the most recent, from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, had him up 6 percent.) Sullivan is trailed by Lieutentant Governor Mead Treadwell, and Tea Party activist Joe Miller.

Sullivan also appears to represent the GOP’s best chance to defeat the vulnerable incumbent Begich in November. But there is some reason for Republicans to worry that they won’t end up with their strongest candidate.

One potential issue is the presence of another Dan Sullivan on the ballot. Daniel A. Sullivan, the mayor of Anchorage, is running in the Republican primary for lieutenant governor, and polls have suggested that about a third of likely primary voters don’t know the difference between him and the Senate candidate who shares his name. How this will affect the race remains unclear, but given the expected low turnout, even a small amount of confusion could have wide-reaching effects.

The exact state of the race isn’t clear, either. As Nate Cohn explains at The Upshot, due to Alaska’s low, spread-out population, it is notoriously difficult to poll:

That reputation stems from an uninterrupted string of polling errors going back a decade: In 2004, Lisa Murkowski trailed in the only two nonpartisan polls of October, yet won; Mr. Begich was thought to have a significant lead in October 2008, but he won by only a point; Mr. Obama was through to trail by perhaps 10 to 15 points in 2008, but he lost by more than 20; Ms. Murkowski trailed again in 2010, but her write-in campaign ultimately prevailed.

The polls’ unreliability may be compounded by an extremely low turnout. That was the case in 2010, when just 109,750 voters participated in the GOP primary between Murkowski and Miller. Although polls showed Murkowski up by 30 points just weeks before the election, Miller rallied the party’s right-wing base to win a stunning upset.

That’s the scenario that should have Republicans holding their breath on Tuesday. Although Miller remains popular in Tea Party circles — he has been endorsed by Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Mark Levin, and Joe Arpaio, among others — he is not an electable statewide candidate. While polling averages show Begich virtually tied with Sullivan or Treadwell, he leads Miller by double-digits. And that’s before Democrats bother to focus on Miller’s controversial 2010 campaign, obsession with impeachment, and unabashed xenophobia:

Miller flier

Republicans who understand that defeating Begich is likely a precondition to winning a Senate majority in November got some good news last week, when Miller announced that he won’t run as an Independent if he loses in the GOP primary. And that’s still the most likely scenario.

But they should still be holding their breath until all the votes are counted on Tuesday night. After all, it wouldn’t be the first time that pollsters have swung and missed in a low-turnout primary.

Photo: Ryan McFarland via Flickr

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