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RAND Poll Shows Democrats Have The Advantage In Presidential Election

RAND Poll Shows Democrats Have The Advantage In Presidential Election

Despite Donald Trump’s frightening rise, Democrats have a better chance at winning the upcoming presidential election, according to a survey by RAND Corporation, a private, nonpartisan think tank.

The poll, which was performed once in December 2015 and again in March, revealed that the primary cycle has led to increased support for Democrats, most likely as a result of Donald Trump’s exclusionary rhetoric. In December, the parties were almost evenly matched, with 46.7 percent of respondents reporting they would vote for a Democrat and 43.1 percent reporting they would vote for a Republican. But following the second round of surveys, the numbers had changed: 53 percent for Democrats, 38 percent for Republicans.

On the Democratic side, the polls revealed what has already been obvious for months: an upswell of support for Vermont senator Bernie Sanders. He rose by 11 points as the preferred candidate among respondents while Clinton dropped by six points.

Among Republicans, Ohio governor John Kasich had the largest increase in support, though that hasn’t translated into primary victories. Between December and March, he went up 20 points among respondents, commanding a total of 23 percent of the vote — still far behind Trump’s 42 percent support among respondents.

These results, though months ahead of the general election, show a promising trend for Democrats: Donald Trump, perhaps, is such a polarizing figure that he’s made his own party look worse as a result.

Study: 9.3 Million Have Gained Health Insurance Under Obamacare

Study: 9.3 Million Have Gained Health Insurance Under Obamacare

The RAND Corporation is out with new Obamacare enrollment numbers today, based on their latest survey of the health insurance market. The key takeaway is that the study estimates a 9.3 million net gain of people with health insurance from September 2013 to March 2014. But there are more nuanced findings to be noted.

There is a significant caveat in the study’s numbers: the sample size of the survey is small, which leads to a large margin of error. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 million, meaning the enrollment numbers could be as high as 12.8 million or as low as 5.8 million.

The report shows that about 5 million people have gained insurance through the Medicaid expansion. This is slightly smaller than other estimates, but not by much. Furthermore, the number of people who have gained insurance from their employers — 8.2 million; 7.2 million of whom were previously uninsured — is very encouraging for supporters of the Affordable Care Act.

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This number, if proven correct, puts a damper on a talking point used to attack Obamacare. Ever since the Affordable Care Act was passed and upheld by the Supreme Court, conservatives have warned there would be a significant decrease in employer-sponsored coverage (ESC), resulting in a net loss of those with health coverage. The fact that as many as 8.2 million people have gained health insurance under ESC shows an unexpected success story of the Affordable Care Act.

The number of those who gained health insurance through the marketplace lagged, according to the data: just 3.9 million. But just 1.4 million of those who signed up through the marketplace did not have health insurance previously. This number is lower than data released by the federal government, in part because it does not account for the surge in marketplace enrollment in late March.

Nevertheless, surveys like this show the unexpected and beneficial outcomes of the Affordable Care Act. As President Obama and Democrats have touted in the past, a combination of factors included in the law are going to lead to Obamacare’s success.

This study may signal a number of key parts of the law in action for the first time, resulting in a large uptick in the amount of people with health insurance in the United States.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons