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Clinton’s White House Chances 95 Percent: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation

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Clinton’s White House Chances 95 Percent: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Debate

By Maurice Tamman

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Even before Sunday night’s vicious presidential debate, Republican Donald Trump was losing ground in many of the states he needs to win to capture the presidency, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation Project analysis released on Monday.

The project estimates that if the election had been held at the end of last week, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton had at least a 95 percent chance of winning enough states to reach the minimum 270 Electoral College votes needed to become the next president, based on polling between Sept. 30 and Oct. 7.

Those odds had steadily grown from about 60 percent on Sept. 15 to almost 90 percent on Sept 30. In the last four weeks, her estimated margin of victory has grown from about 14 votes to 118, according to the project.

The polling did not capture reaction to Trump’s performance in Sunday’s debate or the release on Friday of his 11-year-old sexually aggressive comments about women.

The results, however, mirrored other estimates of her chances of winning the campaign.

Statistical analysis outfit FiveThirtyEight, for example, put Clinton’s chance of victory in the election at about 55 percent three weeks ago. Currently, they estimate the odds of a Clinton win at 82 percent. In the same period, the New York Times’ estimates of the odds of a Clinton victory have also increased, from about 70 percent to 84 percent.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada and Florida are now leaning toward the Democratic candidate, according to the Reuters/Ipsos project, an online survey of about 15,000 people every week. Iowa is in the too-close-to-call category after being considered a likely Trump state while Arizona has moved from too-close-to-call to the Republican candidate.

More broadly, the state-by-state results show how Trump’s support is sliding. In the last week, he has lost ground in at least 21 states, including in seven of the 18 states where he is leading, while improving his position in 19 states.

Meanwhile, Clinton lost ground in 12 states, including in three of the 23 states where she is leading, and improved her standing in 30 sates.

Based on these results, Trump’s best hope for a victory would require a precipitous drop in the number of Democratic voters going to the polls on Nov. 8 from expected levels, combined with a similarly large increase in Republican turnout.

Trump’s crude comments about groping women and aggressively pursuing a married woman, captured on an open microphone, have sent his campaign into turmoil. The recording, first reported by The Washington Post, was made in 2005, in advance of a cameo appearance on a soap opera.

Over the weekend, numerous Republican elected officials and candidates responded by calling for Trump to step aside.

Trump responded to his waning support among some Republicans by calling them hypocrites. During Sunday’s debate he apologized but said the comments were just “locker-room talk.”

He also attacked Bill Clinton’s treatment of women and said Hillary Clinton should be in jail for her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Trump said that, if elected, he would appoint a special prosecutor to investigate her.

A nearly yearlong FBI investigation into the emails concluded earlier this year that no charges should be filed, although FBI Director James Comey said Clinton had been careless in her handling of sensitive material.

The sexually explicit comments controversy followed published reports suggesting the Republican Party leadership was having an internal debate about shifting resources away from the presidential race and into U.S. House and Senate races.

The Republicans currently control both branches of Congress. Many experts think control of the Senate could shift to the Democrats, although few are predicting the Republicans will lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Even before the weekend, the Trump campaign had struggled through two weeks of negative news coverage that began with the campaign’s first presidential debate on Sept. 26, which Reuters/Ipsos polling suggested Clinton had won.

Shortly after the first debate, the New York businessman also attacked – in tweets that began in the early hours of the morning – a former Miss Universe whom Clinton had referred to during the debate as an example of Trump degrading women.

Also during that period, a New York Times report detailed how Trump lost nearly $1 billion in 1995, a loss that could be used to avoid paying federal taxes for up to 18 years, depending on his annual income.

Clinton has had her share of woes as well, including the release of hacked emails last week of comments she appeared to have made to banks and big business. In the 2014 comments, she pushes for open trade and open borders, and takes a conciliatory approach to Wall Street, both positions she later backed away from.

IMAGE: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton listen to a question from a member of the audience during their presidential town hall debate at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, U.S., October 9, 2016.  REUTERS/Saul Loeb



  1. aboonaj October 11, 2016

    Simple conclusion to EVERYthing: Hillary is MORE than qualified; Donald could not be LESS so!

  2. yabbed October 11, 2016

    The election of Donald Trump would signal the beginning of the end to America as the world leader. This is a dangerous election which will set the direction of not just America but the world.

  3. FT66 October 11, 2016

    Hillary is going to win for sure, but we need to make it happen. Those who haven’t registered, need to do so as quickly as they can. No one has to let the crazy mad man lead the country we all love so dearly.

  4. Eleanore Whitaker October 11, 2016

    I said from the get go that Hillary would win by a landslide. Why? First, Americans love to make history. So, the first female US president fills that gap. Second? Hillary addresses ONLY the issues she knows ALL Americans care about most:
    . The future for our kids
    . A lasting peace
    . An end to billionairs scamming and not paying their fair share
    . An end to the bigotry, gender bias and outright nasty, meanspirited attacks on Americans
    . An end to the rabid attack dogs of the GOP acting as if they are resurrecting the McCarthy Era with mindless investigations.

    The Republicans blew it. And, Trump all but verified that when he said in this last debate, “I donated $100 million to my campaign. Why didn’t you?” What Trump stupidly did was admit there was a $100 million donation to the RNC just like Halliburton handed to their CEO Cheney in exchange for getting a no bid contract to supply the Iraq war that hadn’t yet been declared and never was.

    The Republicans also blew it when Trump said he donated “100 million” …he admitted he donated $100 million TAX FREE. That will end Citizen United now that the Koch boys donated $995 million TAX FREE.

    And if the Republicans think they will force Trump off the ticket, they have NO idea what TRUMP will do to their party. He has an army of scumbag sleaze ball dirt diggers he would love to use IF the GOP dares try to get rid of him. This is going to be good. And when Trump loses the election? He’ll sue sue sue sue sue…that’s how he got so wealthy folks.

    1. Mama Bear October 11, 2016

      amen sister.

    2. dpaano October 11, 2016

      And, if anyone read the article in Newsweek about his foreign business connections, they would be VERY concerned!

  5. ivory69690@yahoo.com October 11, 2016

    this is going just as the DUMPSTER planed it . he has been holding the country and the world on a WAIT FOR IT ! WAIT FOR IT MOMENT ! from the start . he needed to coral million’s of brain dead followers (and he has ) the hammer will be dropped soon ( when he loses ) that when he state him master race plan kind of like a Hitler master race he has all the brain dead troops now . one thing I feel DONNY DUMP has planed is his new reality TV show (THE DONNY DUMP’S BIGGEST LOSER SHOW ) he will use it to make a bigger fool of him self then he already has . (im thinking it will get him in a lot of trouble maybe with the FBI ,HOMELAND ,IRS and a few others . he never wanted the house it only makes $400,000 a year . he want to stay he can keep up what he dose best fraud, con and scam as many people as he can . the scary thing of all is the CLOWN very well could of won the house if he just kept lying and kept his hatful big mouth close . by him being the damaged child minded clown he is keeping his big mouth closed wasn’t an option . its his retarded ego (for what ever reason only he knows ) more like the bipolar disorder he cant control the country should thank the DUMPSTER for being this way . think if this king CLOWN was to at the start say he was sorry all the time and been nice after he won the first half today he would be winning in all poles . he was in a big ship he bombed a big hole in the bottom of it so he could sink it for his own wacked out reasons . but all are still on his plan and he laughs at the country and the world . because he still is holding his WAIT FOR IT MOMENT

  6. TMZ1928 October 11, 2016

    Hillary just needs to hide her Parkinson’s disease for 27 days. The medications have worked well enough to get her through the debates, but she has deteriorated a lot in the past six months. What is the Clintons’ plan? Will they prop her up with someone else pulling the strings? Huma? Cheryl? Bill? For sure, the Clintons will never step aside and let Tim Kaine take over, no matter how bad it gets.

    1. Ann Waldrum October 11, 2016


      1. dpaano October 11, 2016

        These trolls just NEVER give up even when the odds are CLEARLY not in their favor!

        1. Mama Bear October 11, 2016

          because there are a lot of missing brain cells. Hopefully they are not breeding too aggressively.

        2. Ann Waldrum October 11, 2016

          To quote Mark Twain (I think): don’t expect a man to believe anything which threaten his livelihood.

    2. Aaron_of_Portsmouth October 11, 2016

      Your disease can never be alleviated, so don’t even think about gainful employment.

    3. Mama Bear October 11, 2016

      Is that your best shot? Really? Pretty limp if you ask me.

    4. dpaano October 11, 2016

      Come on….give it a rest, would you? Your idol is losing….get over it! He has no one to blame but himself! He is mentally unfit to be president or anything else for that matter! He does NOT have the temperament or the personality needed to run this country! Many of his followers are now seeing him for what he is…..a failed candidate! But, TMZ, you keep holding your breath, okay?

    5. charleo1 October 11, 2016

      I give you the new hot off the press ad for putting Trump in the Oval Office.
      Well gosh durn it folks! We can’t really brag on our man anymore. In fact, he’s just about the biggest nincompoop, and as we’ve recently found out one of the nastiest talkers we’ve heard this side of a 1-900 number. Heck! Truth be told, we know he’d be down right dangerous for the Country. But here’s the thing about us, his supporters. We’re hard headed clods that would just as soon see the whole World go down in flames, before we’d ever admit to a bunch of Liberal Lefties, that we’ve made a fool mistake. So for worse, or worser, dumb, or dumber, he’s our nut, and we’re stickin’ with him to the bitter end! I’m Desperate Don, And I approve of this message…

    6. I Am Helpy October 11, 2016

      OK thanks for the delusions, Dr Imaginary.

  7. Aaron_of_Portsmouth October 11, 2016

    Something unhealthy and requiring lots of Tic Tacs, has been issuing from the tissues and pores of Donald for decades, and it shows. Unfortunately, there are many others too numerous to count, who have the same issues and see Trump’s condition as natural.

    1. Gerry Francis October 11, 2016

      You do realize that the people to whom you’re referring are absolutely incapable of being insulted. Therefore, the aforementioned don’t perceive Mr. Trumps attacks in the same way that folks with common decency and and some level of empathy do.

  8. Jon October 11, 2016

    Deplorable Donnie doesn’t know when to shut up. Every day he shows both his lack of basic knowledge and total lack of character. His campaign is circling the drain and instead of plugging it, he adds to the foul mix he has created. He uses a hacked email doctored by Russia concerning Benghazi to fire up his base. He previously used another lie spread by Russia that Google was favoring Hillary Clinton. He truly is Putin’s Perverted Puppet.

  9. dpaano October 11, 2016

    Once again, he let his alligator mouth overload his hummingbird a$$! Typical Trump! Will he EVER learn!? I sincerely doubt it!

  10. Mama Bear October 11, 2016

    We are witnessing yet another textbook narcissistic rage. Psychiatrists all over the world are watching for CME credits. Sad thing is he does this to his family all the time.


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