Today the odds of President Obama being reelected — according to Intrade — hit 72.5 percent. New York Times‘ poll guru Nate Silver says if the election were held today, the president would have a 94.8 percent chance of winning — and Mitt Romney would still have the odd tan he showed off at the Univison candidates forum. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has the president leading by three and nine tenths percent.
Basically, the chances Mitt Romney will win have never been lower.
But Gallup still shows the race as a tie. And Republicans look at all the polls and make assertions like “No incumbent who hasn’t had a more than a four percent lead two weeks after his convention has won.” Sounds convincing.
For the right, it’s always 1980, and they love to imagine Romney storming back — even as their nominee proves again and again that he doesn’t quite understand how to relate to actual human beings. So one thing is clear: If Mitt Romney is going to win, it won’t be because of Mitt Romney.
Still, America is a republic. and nothing is settled yet. Yesterday we told you why Mitt Romney is a worse candidate than John McCain. Today we’re going to explore how despite that fact, he could still win.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Charles Dharapak