Current Washington wisdom  — in the wake of the two party conventions — tells us that the presidential race is essentially tied, but that’s not what we’re seeing. Leaving Tampa the Republicans got no bounce, having advanced two points or so on the earlier choice of Paul Ryan as their vice presidential nominee. By contrast, the question for Democrats isn’t whether Charlotte lifted their nominee, but how much — and how the consolidation of constituency groups behind Obama, influenced by that confident, inspiring spectacle, will shape the race in the weeks ahead. So — how big a bounce? Between James and me, there is now a wager on the table…