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New Reuters/Ipsos States Poll: Clinton 326, Trump 212 In Electoral College

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New Reuters/Ipsos States Poll: Clinton 326, Trump 212 In Electoral College

Hillary Clinton poses for photo. She leads Trump in latest Reuters Ipsos electoral college estimate by 326-212.

By Maurice Tamman

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton maintained her commanding lead in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project results released on Saturday.

In the last week, there has been little movement. Clinton leads Donald Trump in most of the states that Trump would need should he have a chance to win the minimum 270 votes needed to win. According to the project, she has a better than 95 percent chance of winning, if the election was held this week. The mostly likely outcome would be 326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump.

Trump came off his best debate performance of the campaign Wednesday evening but the polling consensus still showed Clinton winning the third and final face-off on prime-time TV. Trump disputes those findings.

And some national polls had the race tightening a wee bit this week though others had Clinton maintaining her solid lead. But the project illustrates that the broader picture remains bleak for Trump with 17 days to go until the Nov. 8 election.

Trump did gain ground in South Carolina where his slim lead last week expanded to seven points, moving it into his column from a toss-up. Unfortunately for him, he lost ground in Arizona, which is now too close to call.

Additionally, he is facing a challenge for Utah’s six Electoral College votes from former CIA operative and Utah native Evan McMullin. The independent candidate is siphoning votes away from Trump in a state that is Republican as any in the nation. In some polls, McMullin is even leading. (The States of the Nation is not polling on McMullin.)

Utah, like almost all of the states, is a winner-take-all contest.

Clinton has also maintained a lead in Florida and Pennsylvania, which have a combined 49 Electoral College votes. Ohio remains too close to call.

According to the project, lower voter turnout generally benefits Trump but his best hope for success is if Republican turnout surges and Democratic turnout is low.

To examine these results and other scenarios, go to the States of the Nation project http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/ .

(Editing by Bernard Orr)



  1. FireBaron October 23, 2016

    And every time Teflon Donnie opens his mouth to complain about his treatment, he loses more of his non-core supporters.

    1. I Am Helpy October 23, 2016

      I’m not sure he HAS any non-core supporters at this time.

    2. Box October 31, 2016

      Thats true. And when Hillary attacks with BS, he gains back double.

  2. Jim Samaras October 24, 2016

    Ohio, Penn, NC, Nevada, Virginia, Fla and even NY go to Trump in a landslide that will make the libs heads explode!

    1. I Am Helpy October 25, 2016

      OK thanks for sharing the waking fever-dream that is your life.


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