Polls Show Weak Convention Bounce For Romney
According to two polls, Mitt Romney has not received any boost from last week’s Republican National Convention.
Presidential candidates usually receive a small, if temporary bounce after their party’s conventions. That does not appear to be the case for Romney. According to Gallup’s daily tracking poll, the race has remained completely static through the convention, with President Obama leading Romney 47 to 46 percent.
Romney did receive a small bounce in Reuters/Ipsos’ four day rolling poll, but it has already disappeared. Romney led by one point in the Thursday edition of the poll and by two points on Friday, but by Saturday President Obama had regained his 44 to 43 percent lead.
One poll does show big convention gains for Romney; Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports has Romney leading Obama by 4 points, representing a 6 point swing from before the convention. As New York Times statistician Nate Silver points out, however, “it does not read quite as strongly for him as compared to the long-term average of Rasmussen polls, which have had Mr. Romney ahead by about one percentage point on average over the past 60 days.”
Silver had noted before the convention began that it would be “a bad sign” for Romney “if he fails to pull ahead of President Obama in polls conducted in the brief window between the Republican and Democratic conventions — even if he gains a point or two.” So, while the lack of a bounce is not a disaster for Romney — the race is still essentially tied, after all — there is definite cause for concern for Romney as the Democratic convention begins.