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Sorry Mr. President, But The Affordability Crisis Isn't A 'Hoax'

Sorry Mr. President, But The Affordability Crisis Isn't A 'Hoax'

It was yet another performance that left us wondering about President Donald Trump’s failing mental faculties. Speaking to supporters at a rally in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania last week, Trump was typically unhinged.

And we have two price charts. Do you remember the last time I pointed to a chart? I don't care what these charts say. My all-time favorite chart was the chart I had in Butler. I said, "Let's look at the chart." I don't care how good that chart looks, it's shit by comparison to the one in… It's nothing. I like the Butler chart. Remember that was on how great employment was and all this, but I like it for other reasons. Look at that chart. It's good. But now that I talk about the Butler chart, I don't even want to look at it, doesn't mean anything. But look, Biden price increases and Trump price increases. Look at Biden. Up 37, 24%, 22, 21, 30.7, 30.7 again, 10.4%, 49%. Trump, the price is down 5.1, 4.2, 0.5, down 4%, 2.9. Look at that. Our prices are coming down. Their prices, it's a hoax. They're just … Remember they said the Inflation Reduction Act, remember that? Billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars, the inflation, and after they got it approved, because we had a few Republicans that went along with that whole hoax.

If there was a coherent thought buried in all that gibberish, he later tried to summarize it this way: “Prices are coming down very substantially. But they have a new word. They always have a hoax. The new word is affordability.”

He can call it a hoax all he wants, but Trump and his team know affordability is a real problem. That’s why he’s suddenly trying to co-opt the term, like a cringe Truth Social post declaring himself “THE AFFORDABILITY PRESIDENT.” It’s also why his team has sent him out on what it’s calling an “affordability tour,” which is how he ended up in Mount Pocono at the Mount Airy Casino Resort. The largest ballroom there holds about 1,200 people—a telling choice by a campaign clearly afraid of empty seats at a sizable venue.

What should worry Republicans is not just the optics, but the substance. A rally supposedly designed to counter Democratic attacks on affordability instead showcased Trump creating an entire alternate reality.

“We’re getting inflation,” he said. “We’re crushing it, and you’re getting much higher wages. I mean, the only thing that’s really going up big, it’s called the stock market and your 401(k)s that’s going up.”

That line should sound familiar, because Democrats already tried it—and paid the price. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spent much of the 2024 campaign insisting the economy was strong, that inflation was cooling, that wages were up, and that voters simply didn’t understand how good things really were.

Voters didn’t buy it. Telling people they’re wrong about their own financial stress is a losing message, no matter which party delivers it.

Trump is now making the exact same mistake, only he’s louder and more detached from the lives of the people he claims to be fighting for. Instead of acknowledging the pain people are actually feeling, he reached for a familiar crutch: bragging about the stock market, as if that is supposed to mean something to an audience in Appalachia or to anyone struggling to pay rent or buy groceries.

And he couldn’t stop.

“The stock market has set 51, this is in less than 10 months,” Trump said. “The stock market has set 51 all-time record highs. There’s never been anything like that. Bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum.” He repeated the claim again for good measure.

Then came a reprise of the “let them eat cake” routine he’s been workshopping for a while. After bizarrely claiming that without his tariffs “you would have no steel,” Trump explained that Americans should simply do without other consumer goods.

“You can give up certain products. You can give up pencils because under the China policy, every child can get 37 pencils. They only need one or two,” he said. “You don’t need 37 dolls for your daughter. Two or three is nice, but you don’t need 37 dolls.”

It’s remarkable watching so many cultish conservatives swing from “Don’t tread on me” to “Please daddy Trump, tell me how many dolls my daughter can have.” For the broader electorate, though, this message is political poison.

MAGA Media Knew Trump Would Wreak Economic Havoc --- And Now He Is

MAGA Media Knew Trump Would Wreak Economic Havoc --- And Now He Is

For months, MAGA sycophants and right-wing media personalities have been warning that President Donald Trump’s agenda to gut the federal government and institute widespread tariffs could devastate the economy, which they attempted to spin as an important step to restoring the balance supposedly missing from the strong economy Trump inherited from the Biden administration.

With many of Trump’s policies going into effect or scheduled to begin soon, economists, analysts, and news organizations are already pointing to new indicators of a pullback in consumer spending, weak consumer confidence, worsening inflation expectations, and higher than expected weekly jobless claims as evidence that the promised economic mayhem is already beginning.

Economists and news outlets say new economic indicators show economic trouble ahead

  • University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers: Census Bureau data shows that “Americans responded (sharply!) to the Trump tariffs *before* they were even imposed” by importing extra goods to avoid “paying the higher prices that would occur when he was in office.” Wolfers added: “This also gives you a sense of who to blame for somewhat higher inflation in January. No, he wasn't in office yet. But suppliers know buyers need to buy ahead of future tariff-afflicted price hikes, and so likely felt little pressure to offer their usual discounts.” [Bluesky, 2/28/25, 2/28/25]
  • University of California, Berkeley economist Jesse Rothstein: “It seems almost unavoidable at this point that we are headed for a deep, deep recession” due to Trump’s policies. Rothstein wrote: “Just based on 200K+ federal firings & pullback of contracts, the March employment report (to be released April 4) seems certain to show bigger job losses than any month ever outside of a few in 2008-9 and 2020.” [Bluesky, 2/18/25]
  • Washington Post economic columnist Heather Long, citing new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, wrote: “Warning sign for the economy: Big drop in consumer spending in January. Personal consumption expenditures *decreased* 0.2%.” Long added: “Look at the categories with big drops -- car parts, recreational stuff, appliances, furniture, clothing -- a lot of this is ‘nice to haves’ that people cut first when times get tough.” [Twitter/X, 2/28/25]
  • Center for Economic and Policy Research senior economist Dean Baker noted that “January had the largest drop in consumption spending in four years,” and called it a “recession-type drop in spending.” [Twitter/X, 2/28/25, 2/28/25]
  • Former Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jared Bernstein: The drop in consumer spending is “concerning and consistent with consumer angst re tariffs, uncertainty.” [Twitter/X, 2/28/25]
  • Center on Budget and Policy Priorities senior director for federal fiscal policy Brendan Duke on the drop in consumer spending: “Do wonder if a big economic effect of the Trump Administration's attacks on federal employees and contractors is that they and their families are pulling back on consumer spending because they are *worried* about losing their jobs even if they haven't lost them yet.” [Twitter/X, 2/28/25]
  • Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman on the drop in consumer spending: “Consumers already seem worried about policy madness, and they ain't seen nothing yet.” [Bluesky, 2/28/25]
  • According to two surveys, consumer confidence has slumped to a level that “usually signals a recession ahead.” Two consumer confidence surveys for February, released just days apart, indicated that public perceptions of the economy have worsened significantly since Trump took office, with fears of “tariff-induced price increases” dragging down consumer sentiment in a survey published by the University of Michigan, and nagging worries about “income, business, and labor market conditions” driving down sentiment in a survey published by The Conference Board. Both surveys were weaker than economists had expected, with the University of Michigan’s index registering the highest inflation expectations since 2023, and the Conference Board’s survey falling to a level that “usually signals a recession ahead.” [The Wall Street Journal, 2/21/25; The Conference Board, 2/25/25]
  • CNN: “The stock market had its worst week of Trump’s presidency – the Dow lost 1,200 points over the course of Thursday and Friday” as “investors grew fearful that the weakening consumer sentiment could lead to a pullback in Americans’ shopping habits.” CNN also quoted FWDBonds chief economist Chris Rupkey telling investors, “The public’s fears have soared in just the last two weeks showing the blizzard of changes coming from the president’s desk have spilled over the line between pro-growth into the realm of pro-inflation. … Once inflation expectations start moving higher it is only a matter of time before actual inflation takes off.” [CNN, 2/24/25]
  • CNBC: “Weekly jobless claims jump to 242,000, more than expected in latest sign of economic softening.” On February 27, CNBC reported that “jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 22 totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000, up 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level and higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 225,000.” CNBC explained that “the level of claims matched the highest since early October 2024 and comes amid questions over broader economic growth and worrying signs in recent consumer sentiment surveys” and amid Trump “taking aggressive measures to reduce the federal workforce.” [CNBC, 2/27/25]
  • Bloomberg: “Trump Risks American Consumer Backlash Over Tariffs, Poll Shows.” Bloomberg reported that a Harris Poll found that “almost 60% of US adults expect Trump’s tariffs will lead to higher prices,” and “44% say the levies are likely to be bad for the US economy.” [Bloomberg, 2/27/25]
  • CNBC: “The Federal Reserve’s favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign again.” CNBC reported: “The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in trading Wednesday. In market lingo, that’s known as an ‘inverted yield curve,’ and it’s had a sterling prediction record over a 12- to 18-month timeframe for downturns going back decades.” [CNBC, 2/26/25]

Trump supporters have been warning that his agenda calls for “hardship”

  • Elon Musk said during an October 25 telephone town hall that Trump’s agenda “to reduce spending to live within our means … necessarily involves some temporary hardship.” Since then, Musk has become the embodiment of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is reportedly responsible for many federal firings and spending freezes. [The New York Times, 10/29/24; The Associated Press, 2/21/25]
  • Musk later agreed with an X user who wrote that there will be an “initial severe overreaction in the economy” and that the “market will tumble” as Trump enacts his agenda. Musk replied on October 29, “Sounds about right.” [The New York Times, 10/29/24]
  • Fox News host Laura Ingraham: Trump’s agenda will be “tough for the economy. There is no doubt about it.” Ingraham added: “People have to get, as my father would have said, real work, real jobs. People are going to have to get jobs and they're going to be scrambling.” [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 11/20/24]
  • Podcaster Jason Calacanis: “DOGE is going to require collective sacrifice.” He wrote: “Getting Americans & their representatives to decline funding the government has ALREADY promised them, and that they fought hard to get, is going to be an extremely difficult task.” [Twitter/X, 11/22/24; Vox, 11/12/22]
  • Then-Fox contributor Tammy Bruce (now a government spokesperson): People are going to lose their jobs, “and it's going to be good, because yes, more jobs will be created in the private sector for them.” [Fox News, Hannity, 12/5/24]
  • Fox host Todd Piro: “Now, admittedly, we're going to have some tariffs, and that's going to raise prices. But the overall impact on the economy, hopefully, when Trump takes over, will make people feel better. And then when people feel better, the economy is better.” [Fox Business, Varney & Co., 12/11/24]
  • Heritage Foundation economist Stephen Moore on government jobs: “I guarantee you that number is going to be down next month, because we’re already seeing the Trump administration really shred jobs in the government sector.” [Media Matters, 2/7/25]
  • Fox Business host Charles Payne: “States are going to have a lot of their own sort of comeuppance, if you will” from the Trump administration cutting spending. Payne also claimed the Biden administration “tried to goose these numbers” with “a lot of money [that] was parceled out to states.” [Fox Business, Mornings with Maria Bartiromo, 2/7/25]
  • Faulkner on DOGE gutting the federal government: “There will be some fallout, because people will be losing their jobs.” [Fox News, Outnumbered, 2/18/25]
  • MAGA radio host Dan Bongino: People need to “take it on the chin” and “sacrifice for a little bit” for Trump’s policies. Bongino said: “We’re just asking you to sacrifice for a little bit for the long-term prosperity of the United States. Now’s the time. … We’re all going to take it on the chin a little bit. Rich guys, poor guys, middle class guys, someone’s going to lose their tax cut. It is time to take it on the chin. We have to fix this thing now, not tomorrow.” [The Dan Bongino Show, 2/18/25]
  • Payne suggested it could be positive if Trump creates a recession. After a guest pointed out that President Ronald Reagan “came into office in 1981, that he slashed federal head count and actually put the economy back into the double dip recession of 1980 and 1981,” Payne responded: “I agree with you 1,000% that when you change something that's like this, lot of cash floating around, maybe there's a little temporary pain. We also end up calling it investing.” [Fox Business, Making Money, 2/26/25]

Reprinted with permission from Media Matters.

Middle East War

Why Trump Will Wield Superpower Status In The New Middle East

While the Biden administration hasn’t been able to turn the tide for Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression, it has had better luck further south in the Middle East. Donald Trump will inherit the results of President Joe Biden’s support of Israel’s war on Hezbollah in Lebanon, its throttling of Syria’s military capability since rebels marched into Damascus ten days ago, and the damage Israel did to Iran’s military and its weapons manufacturing capabilities when it struck Iran in late October.

In less than two months, Israel has completely upset the balance of power in the Middle East, and it has done it from the air using stealth technology developed and deployed by the United States. Israel used stealth jets when it took out Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of Hezbollah’s top command at the militant group’s headquarters in the south of Beirut on September 28. Israeli stealth jets were used when they launched hundreds of strikes on Hezbollah military targets, knocking out all of its rocket sites that threatened the north of Israel.

But most importantly, Israel used both stand-off guided missiles fired from Iraqi airspace and heavier munitions dropped by U.S.-manufactured F-35 and F-15 jets when it retaliated against Iran for firing nearly 200 missiles at Israel on October 1 of this year. Israel used at least 100 jet aircraft to strike Iranian military targets in the first such attack on Iran by Israel in the history of the conflict between the two adversaries.

According to the Pentagon, the Israeli strikes on Iran crippled its missile manufacturing factories to such an extent that it will take Iran at least a year before they can begin producing missiles again. Israel struck other Iranian weapons facilities as well, including its drone manufacturing plants. Iran has been a major supplier of both missiles and drones to Russia in its war on Ukraine.

According to CNN and other news sources, Israel was able to destroy all of Iran’s S-300 Russian-supplied air defense batteries. “Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” Israel’s military spokesman Daniel Hagari told the press after the Israeli strike on Iran.

What this means, without saying it out loud, is that Israel can now strike Iran with impunity, anytime, and anywhere it wants. Iran is blind to Israel’s use of stealth attack bombers and because its air defenses have been largely destroyed, unable to prevent another strike by air from Israel for the foreseeable future. Stephen Bryen, a former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Trade Security Policy, who writes a Substack column entitled “Weapons and Strategy,” put it this way: “Israel used the F-35, which is a stealth fighter, to knock out Iran’s air defenses. That enabled F-15s to go in and destroy other targets – because now the Iranians couldn’t fight back.”

According to reports by CNN and The Guardian, Israel refrained from hitting Iran’s oil infrastructure and its nuclear facilities…at least for now.

For all of the more than 40 years of the existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel and Iran have largely fought a shadow war, with Iran using proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas to attack Israel. With Hamas and Hezbollah at least for the time being largely destroyed and Iran’s military capability to launch a counterstrike damaged, Israel has emerged as the sole superpower in the Middle East.

CNN quoted Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, saying that Iran fears that “if they don’t do something now Israel will start treating Iran as they did with Syria, which means every once in a while, the Israelis will strike.”

Speaking of which, Israel is estimated to have struck more than 500 military targets inside Syria since rebels ousted the government of Bashar al-Assad on December 8. The attacks appear to be continuing. Israel has continued its attacks most recently with a massive strike on Syria’s weapons storage facility near the coastal city of Tartous, where Russia maintained a naval base until moving all of its ships from the port after the fall of Assad.

Russia is said to be “in talks” with the nascent regime that is in the process of establishing a government in Syria. “We are in contact with representatives of the forces that are currently in control of the situation in the country, and all of this will be determined in the course of dialogue,” Dimitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman told reporters in a call from Moscow earlier today.

If that doesn’t sound like a realignment of power in the Middle East, I don’t know what is. The government of Russia’s client-state, Syria, gone. Russia’s ally, Iran, severely damaged by Israeli airstrikes. Russia’s terror proxy, Hezbollah, nearly destroyed. Meanwhile, Israel is talking about establishing settlements in the territory it occupies in the Golan heights, and there is nobody who can tell them to stop.

What Donald Trump will do with the situation he inherits in the Middle East is not known, although he has made no secret of his willingness, even eagerness, to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. With Putin in a stalemate in Ukraine and his forces pushed out of Syria, if Netanyahu remains in power in Israel, and Trump takes power in this country, there won’t be a balance of power in the Middle East anymore. Donald Trump, for better or worse, will be in the driver’s seat.

Lucian K. Truscott IV, a graduate of West Point, has had a 50-year career as a journalist, novelist, and screenwriter. He has covered Watergate, the Stonewall riots, and wars in Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He is also the author of five bestselling novels. You can subscribe to his daily columns at luciantruscott.substack.com and follow him on Twitter @LucianKTruscott and on Facebook at Lucian K. Truscott IV.

Reprinted with permission from Lucian Truscott Newsletter.


Hunter Biden

Busted Biden Informant -- And GOP Witness -- Had Contact With Top Kremlin Spies

The FBI informant who was indicted late last week for allegedly fabricating allegations about President Joe Biden and his son Hunter also reportedly had contact with officials in Vladimir Putin's regime, according to a new court filing.

Alexander Smirnov, 43, was charged last week with making false statements to federal authorities over his claim that both Joe and Hunter Biden solicited a $5 million bribe from Ukrainian company Burisma in exchange for protecting it from an investigation by the Ukrainian government. However, a new 28-page filing submitted in US District Court on Tuesday arguing for his continued pretrial detention suggests Smirnov may have had political motivations in concocting the alleged scheme.

"In December 2023 Smirnov reported to his handler about a recent overseas trip, where Smirnov attended a meeting with Russian Official 2, who Smirnov has described as a high-ranking member of a specific Russian intelligence service," read the filing, which was originally tweeted by Politico legal correspondent Kyle Cheney. "During this same trip, Smirnov apparently attended a separate meeting with Russian Official 1, the individual who controls groups that are engaged in overseas assassination efforts."

Revealingly, the filing said that Smirnov told his FBI handler that Russian intelligence officials obtained cell phone calls from "prominent US persons" that the Putin regime "may use as 'kompromat' in the 2024 election,' depending on who the candidates will be." The filing also read that Smirnov is "actively peddling new lies that could impact US elections after meeting with Russian intelligence officials in November."

"Smirnov's contacts with Russian officials who are affiliated with Russian intelligence services are not benign," the DOJ argued in the filing. "The court should consider this conduct as well when evaluating his personal history and characteristics... In light of that fact there is a serious risk he will flee in order to avoid accountability for his actions."

Aside from his alleged fabrications about the Bidens, Smirnov has also been accused of lying about his finances. Even though he told the FBI he only had access to $1,500 in cash and another $5,000 in a savings account, the Tuesday filing read that he withdrew more than $1.7 million in cashier's checks between 2020 and 2022 in the name of "Avalon Group, Inc." It was not made clear from the filing where the money originated.

The lies Smirnov allegedly told make up the core of Republicans' arguments to impeach President Biden, with both House Judiciary Committee chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) and House Oversight Committee chairman James Comer (R-KY) both citing his work with the FBI as justification for their impeachment crusade. They have not yet dropped their efforts to impeach Biden despite the president's calls for them to do so in light of Smirnov's indictment.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

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