Tag: gallup poll
Gallup Poll: Americans Moving Away From Republican Party

Gallup Poll: Americans Moving Away From Republican Party

More Americans now affiliate themselves with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, marking the first time this has happened since January 2024, according to a Gallup poll released Thursday.

Gallup finds that in the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46 percent of Americans say they identified as a Democrat or a Democratic-leaning independent, compared with the 43 percent who say they are a Republican or Republican-leaning independent.

That's a change from the first quarter of the year, when an equal 45 percent of Americans identified with either party. And it's an even bigger shift from the fourth quarter of 2024—when last year’s presidential election took place—when 47 percent identified as Republicans.

Gallup said that the shift is not unexpected since the party in power usually sees voters turn away from it in the first few months of a new administration.

"Shifts in party affiliation away from the ruling party have occurred in the first year of most recent presidential administrations. The current movement in party preferences is primarily driven by a greater share of political independents saying they lean toward the Democratic Party," Gallup said.

Still, the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do to improve its image.

Gallup also finds that just 34 percent of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably, which is the lowest rating for the party since Gallup first asked the question, in 1992. The GOP performs only marginally better, with 38 percent viewing it favorably.

Gallup said that Democrats' poor image is thanks to Democratic identifiers viewing their own party in an unfavorable light—likely because they want to see their party leaders fight harder against Trump’s shredding of the Constitution and the GOP’s cruel policies and evil attempts at stealing power.

"Seventy-three percent of Democrats now have a positive opinion of the party. This is down sharply from 87 percent in the prior reading in November and contrasts with a 91 percent favorable rating of the Republican Party among Republican identifiers," Gallup said.

Indeed, it’s why Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey unleashed on his fellow Democrats on the Senate floor on Tuesday, saying, “The Democratic Party needs a wake-up call.”

“It's time for Democrats to have a backbone. It's time for us to fight. It's time for us to draw lines,” Booker said.

- YouTube youtu.be

Still, despite the Democratic Party’s struggles, Gallup added that the shift in party affiliation away from the GOP is likely a worrying sign for Republicans going into the 2026 midterms.

In each of the past few midterm elections, "midterm losses were preceded by shifts in party affiliation away from the ruling party during the president’s first year in office," Gallup wrote.

For example, in 2017, when Trump first took office, Republicans saw a two-percentage-point decline in the number of people who affiliated with their party. In the next year’s midterms, a blue wave led to Democrats regaining control of the House.

And in 2009, when Barack Obama first entered the White House, Democrats saw a 5-point drop in the number of Americans affiliated with the party between the first and fourth quarters of the year. A year later, Republicans romped to victory in the 2010 midterms.

At the end of the day, the laws of thermostatic politics still stand.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

American Constitution

Despite The Idiocy And Ignominy, I'm Still A Patriot

On the eve of our nation's 249th birthday, a Gallup poll finds that only 58 percent of Americans feel "extremely" or "very" proud of their country. This is a new low in the 25 years Gallup has been asking this question, and the reasons are not hard to divine. We are led by a monomaniacal vulgarian who endangers all we hold dear — all while enjoying lock-step fealty from the Republican Party.

We are clearly in a rough patch, but rather than despair, we can draw upon our rich history for inspiration.

First a disclaimer: America has been responsible for appalling savagery in the past 250 years. There is no sugar-coating our sins, but as Immanuel Kant said, "Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made."

America is the greatest nation in the history of the world. And here are a few of the reasons.

We are the oldest democracy on the planet, having set the template for self-government and rule of law that has been such a gift to humankind. Our freedom, vast territory, culture and institutions give the freest possible rein to human creativity and flourishing.

We have been a haven for the oppressed for centuries. My grandparents fled the Russian and Austro-Hungarian Empires to find freedom and security here just as millions upon millions of others did. Search the history of almost any American and you will find ancestors, often quite recent, who uprooted themselves to partake of the bounty and freedom on offer here.

Most were not famous names, but boy, are there a lot of renowned refugees who found their way here: Albert Einstein, Vladimir Nabokov, Nikola Tesla, Mikhail Baryshnikov, Igor Stravinsky, Kurt Godel, Irving Berlin, Martina Navratilova, Andrew Carnegie, Sergey Brin, Oscar de la Renta, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Artur Rubinstein, Gloria Estefan, and Thomas Mann. The list is virtually endless.

They brought their talents to our shores and accomplished great things because this pulsing, energetic, inventive and risk-taking republic provided the platform for greatness, undergirded by political stability.

Are you grateful for air conditioning this July 4? Thank an American, Willis Carrier. Are you planning a road trip? You can enjoy any of 63 national parks because the United States invented the national park, starting with Yellowstone.

Let's hear it for airplanes, the telephone, the personal computer, the internet, recorded sound, the elevator, anesthesia, the cellphone, the polio vaccine and other medical marvels — all invented by Americans.

America has also given the world jazz, hip hop, stand-up comedy, Hollywood, community colleges, root beer, basketball, baseball, Broadway musicals, skyscrapers, public libraries, summer camp, and the ice cream cone. The United Nations is basically an American idea supported disproportionately over the years by American contributions. Ditto for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Until recently, Americans could be proud of our humanitarian work in the world's poorest nations, to whom we were the most generous donor.

Over the years, the United States was the world's foremost first responder when other nations were struck by tsunamis, earthquakes, famines or aggression. In addition to the Marshall Plan, NATO, and PEPFAR, American might ensured that Berlin remained a free city when the Soviets imposed a blockade, supplied Israel with lifesaving munitions when Egypt and Syria launched a joint attack, defeated the aggressive Serbs and negotiated a Balkan peace, presided over the Camp David Accords, relieved a famine in Somalia, liberated Kuwait, saved the Yazidis from Mount Sinjar and much else. Though we fought a brutal war against imperial Japan and suffered terrible war crimes at their hands, our occupation was benign and fair. We transformed an enemy into a thriving democratic ally.

Our worst national stain also gave rise to our most inspiring mass movement: the civil rights struggle. We were challenged to live up to our stated creed, and though the resistance was bitter and ugly, the nation did respond and did heed our better angels. Forty-three years after Selma, we elected a Black president.

Populism, nativism, racism and, frankly, stupidity, are sprinkled liberally throughout our history. But they are subtexts, not the main story. We will transcend MAGA as we transcended the Know Nothings, the Confederacy, the anarchists, the McCarthyites and the Wallaceites (both Henry and George) — not to mention the abuses of the British Empire more than two centuries ago. On Independence Day, I will sincerely celebrate a nation that, despite its demagogues and fools, was capable of producing an Abraham Lincoln, a Franklin Roosevelt, a Frederick Douglass, a Wendell Willkie, a Martin Luther King Jr., a Learned Hand, a Dwight Eisenhower, and a Herbert Hoover (that's right, for saving millions from starvation after World War I).

Adam Smith said, "There's a great deal of ruin in a nation," and we've had too many recent occasions to rue that reality. But this week we need to remember the nobility of this nation. There's a great deal of that, too.


Mona Charen
is policy editor of The Bulwark and host of the "Beg to Differ" podcast. Her latest book is Hard Right: The GOP's Drift Toward Extremism.

Reprinted with permission from Creators.

Gallup Survey Suggests Election Could Mirror Obama Victory In 2008

Gallup Survey Suggests Election Could Mirror Obama Victory In 2008

Democrats have another reason to be optimistic about Tuesday's presidential election after the release of a new Gallup poll.

Gallup, which is considered one of the more reputable polling organizations operating today, doesn't do election horse-race polls of candidates. However, it does measure public opinion in other important ways that could predict how an election may turn out. On Thursday, Gallup released a series of polls exploring voter enthusiasm among supporters of both major parties and compared it to voter enthusiasm in past election cycles. The organization also gauged at how effective each campaign was at voter outreach.

In its most recent survey, Gallup asked voters: "Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic?" The share of Democratic voters who said they were "more enthusiastic" was at 77 percent, whereas the share of Republicans who answered the same way was just 67 percent.

When comparing the 2024 result to past elections, Democrats in particular are even more motivated to vote in 2024 than they were in 2008, where 76 percent of Democratic respondents said they were "more enthusiastic." Republicans are also registering more enthusiasm in 2024 than in 2008, though that margin is smaller: In 2008, 61 percent of Republican voters were more excited to vote, whereas that share climbs slightly to 67 percent in 2024.

An additional notable metric from Gallup's survey found that while Republican voter enthusiasm was at roughly the same level this year as it was in 2020 (66 percent four years ago compared to 67 percent today), Harris is seeing a higher share of enthusiasm from her base than President Joe Biden had, as Biden registered at 75 percent compared to her 77 percent.

"Since Gallup first asked the question in 2000, the enthusiasm measure has shown a mixed relationship with presidential election outcomes. Democratic enthusiasm advantages in 2008 and 2020 preceded party wins, while a Republican advantage in 2012 came in a year their party lost," Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones wrote. "Republicans also had a lead in 2000, when George W. Bush won the election in the Electoral College. In other years, no party had an obvious advantage in enthusiasm."

Alejandra Caraballo, who is a Harvard Law School clinical instructor at the university's Cyberlaw Clinic, posted the Gallup poll on the social media platform Bluesky on Thursday. She opined that Harris is being underestimated by current polls, as she believes pollsters are consistently under-sampling women voter turnout in November.

"I fully expect her to win by four and I'll take the over," Caraballo wrote. "The polls are seriously missing something along gender lines and it's distorting the results. I've dug into crosstabs on state level polling and gender is completely off."

"The gender breakdown makes absolutely no sense," she continued, referencing a recent YouGov/CES poll. "Kamala doesn't win women in any age group. But Biden won women by nine and they made up 56 percent of the electorate. They even have young men being more Democratic than young women."

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

proud boys

Gallup Finds GOP Image Tanking Fast — Due To Republican Defections

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Americans' views of the Republican Party have taken a serious hit ever since the November election and the party's repeated efforts to overturn the election results, according to new polling from Gallup.

Just 37 percent of adults say they have a favorable view of the party, a precipitous six-point slide in just a few months from the 43 percent who viewed it positively in November. In the same period, the Democratic Party gained a few points in favorability, with 48 percent of respondents now viewing the party favorably. That gives Democrats what Gallup calls a "rare double-digit advantage in favorability."

But what is perhaps most striking is where the GOP is bleeding support from—its own ranks. "Since November, the GOP's image has suffered the most among Republican Party identifiers, from 90 percent favorable to 78 percent. Independents' and Democrats' opinions are essentially unchanged," according to Gallup. That image problem isn't merely theoretical; it has already resulted in tens of thousands of GOP defections across the country since November as conservative voters officially switch their party affiliations to something other than Republican.

On the flip side, Democrats' gain in favorability has come mostly from independents, whose positive views of party have increased by seven points since November, from 41 percent to 48 percent.

The GOP has "often" sunk into sub-40 territory, according to Gallup. When Donald Trump forced a lengthy government shutdown over his border wall in January 2019, for instance, GOP favorability fell to 38 percent. But news of the party's plummeting image comes right as GOP lawmakers rally around Trump—the main driver of their recent disfavored status—to prevent his conviction on impeachment charges.

Historically, the party that initiates impeachment proceedings takes a political hit. But Trump and his flagrant efforts to subvert the will of the people have proven to be historically unpopular, and Democrats are actually gaining in popularity due to their efforts to hold Trump accountable and safeguard American democracy.

Republicans, on the other hand, are sticking with Trump no matter the consequences because they simply can't imagine a world in which they have to appeal to anything beyond white identity to win elections.

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