Tag: survey
Black And Hispanic Voters

Pew Data Disproves Reported Trump Advance Among Minority Voters

The Pew Research Center released polling this week that casts serious doubt on recent surveys showing Donald Trump making significant gains among Black and Latino voters.

The Pew survey suggested majorities of Latino, Black, and Asian voters continue to largely favor the Democratic Party. The results show very little change among Black and Latino Americans since the early 1990s, while white voters remain almost exactly as aligned with the Republican Party as they were in the early ‘90s.

"Not much 'racial realignment' in these Pew numbers," Vanderbilt political science professor John Sides tweeted, attaching a series of Pew graphs tracking party alignment over three decades.

On Latinos specifically, Pew’s 2023 data showing Democrats with a 61 percent to 35 percent edge seemed to counter recentNew York Times/Siena polling showing Trump with a 46 percent to 40 percent edge over Biden—6 points above George W. Bush's 40 percent share of the Latino vote in 2004, the high-water mark for Republicans.

Pew puts considerable effort into surveying the U.S. Latino population, and some political analysts consider it the gold standard on Latino polling. The differences in outcomes between the Pew and Times polls are due to a number of variables, including the fact that Pew asked about party affiliation while the Times polled Trump-Biden support.

But another factor—and a potential cautionary tale about polling Latinos—might be differences in the way the polls were conducted. In the fine print of its graph, Pew explains why its data for Latino voters only dates back to the mid-aughts while information for its other three demographic graphs date back to the 1990s.

"Data for Hispanic voters shown only for years with interviews in English and Spanish," the text reads. In other words, the polling organization didn't view polling of Latinos conducted in English as sufficiently representative, even if the sample sizes were technically large enough.

The Times poll conducted just three percent of its interviews of self-identified Latino voters in Spanish—a fact that UCLA political science professor, Democratic pollster, and Biden campaign adviser Matt Barreto currently highlights in his pinned tweet.

"Let's look at their brilliant Latino methodology: 97 percent English," Barreto tweeted incredulously last month, when the poll was released. Barreto added emphatically that Trump's 6-point advantage in the Times survey "does not match ANY actual bilingual large-n polling of Latinos. ZERO CHANCE. Are people frustrated? Yes. Is Trump +6. ZERO CHANCE."

Even the Times piece detailing the poll's findings among Latino voters warned, "For a subgroup that size, the margin of error is 10 percentage points."

But if Barreto's tweet sounds urgent, it's because Biden's share of Latino voters matters. Latinos, who now account for roughly 15 percent of eligible voters, can be difference-makers in 2024. That is particularly true in a swing state like Arizona, where Latinos are expected to account for around one-quarter of voters this year.

There's good reason to question polling suggesting such a dramatic shift among a group of voters who present unique challenges to pollsters.

As Republican political consultant and Lincoln Project co-founder Mike Madrid tweeted, Pew's "numbers are much more in line with where Hispanics will likely end up. Lower for GOP than most current polls but high historically."

Trump's big purge of old-school and more moderate Republicans, such as supporters of his primary rival Nikki Haley, has also put more pressure on him to overperform among groups that typically haven't favored Republicans—including Latinos.

The smartest reporting out there on the topic of Trump's potential gains with minority voters this cycle comes from CNN analyst and The Atlantic senior editor Ronald Brownstein, who has been at the forefront of tracking demographic trends since coining the term "the blue wall" in 2009.

As Brownstein points out, one underreported trend in this cycle's polling is Biden's relative strength among white voters. In most state and national polls, Biden is "matching or even exceeding" his winning 2020 share of the white vote.

So with Biden and Trump running roughly even in national polling now, Biden's continued strength with white voters puts the onus on Trump to win over a historically high share of voting groups that don't typically lean Republican.

As Brownstein tweeted, "Trump's gains w/Black & Hispanic voters have drawn justified attn. But w/little notice, Biden is matching or beating his 2020 # w/Whites in most ntl & state polls. That means to win,Trump may need to hold more minority votes than any GOP nominee in 60+ yrs."

That's going to be a tall order, particularly among Latinos, given the full-court press the Biden campaign rolled out last week with its new targeted outreach strategy, "Latinos con Biden-Harris."

The conventional wisdom over the past few months has been that Biden is in trouble because he's bleeding support among Latinos (and potentially Black voters, too).

But with current polling showing Biden and Trump relatively evenly matched at this stage of the contest, it's entirely plausible for the Biden campaign to woo back some voters who are more naturally predisposed to voting for Democrats, as the Pew polling suggested.

As Democratic strategist Joe Trippi recently explained on his podcast, “That Trippi Show,” "We don't have to gain back 20 points with Blacks, we don't have to gain back 20 points with Latinos, or with young people. If we're in a dead heat when we've lost 20 points with all those folks across the board, you get 2 points, 3 points, 4 points of them back, and Trump is dead."

It's another case of: We'd much rather be us than them.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Americans Vastly Overestimate Size Of LGBT Population, Poll Finds

Americans Vastly Overestimate Size Of LGBT Population, Poll Finds

By Ben Brody Bloomberg News, (TNS)

Same-sex marriage is one of the fastest-moving social issues in U.S. history, having become legal in state after state as Americans cheer it in ever-growing numbers. But one thing is slightly off-kilter: Americans seem to have absolutely no idea just how many lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people are out there.

In fact, they think that 23 percent of Americans, or almost 1 in 4, are LGBT, a Gallup survey released Thursday revealed. That’s way off: The polling organization most recently found that less than 4 percent self-identify that way.

A third of people surveyed believed that LGBT made up more than 25 percent of the population. Just 9 percent of those in the survey correctly stated that they thought the group made up less than 5 percent of the population.

It’s unclear why people think the LGBT population is six times larger than it actually is.

“Part of the explanation for the inaccurate estimates of the gay and lesbian population rests with Americans’ general unfamiliarity with numbers and demography,” Gallup ventured, noting that people also overestimate the size of the African-American and Hispanic populations in the U.S., although usually only by a factor of two.

“The overestimation (of the size of the LGBT population) may also reflect prominent media portrayals of gay characters on television and in movies, even as far back as 2002, and perhaps the high visibility of activists who have pushed gay causes, particularly legalizing same-sex marriage.”

Several gay, lesbian, bisexual, and even transgender characters have become prominent in recent years on TV shows such as “Modern Family,” “Scandal,” “Degrassi” and “Glee,” as well as in movies including “Brokeback Mountain” and the Academy Award-winning biopic “The Imitation Game.”

Those who oppose same-sex marriage give slightly lower — but still way-too-high — estimates of the LGBT population than those who support it do, but the difference between the two groups’ estimates was within the margin of error of 4 percentage points.

In a separate Gallup poll released Tuesday, the organization found a “record high” 60 percent of Americans favoring the legalization of same-sex marriage.

Photo: Jesse Tyler Ferguson plays Mitchell Pritchett, one-half of the gay couple on the ABC hit comedy “Modern Family.” (Photo by Andrew H. Walker/Getty Images for Yahoo News/Wikipedia)

Most Americans Have Low Confidence In Police Ability To Treat Races Equally

Most Americans Have Low Confidence In Police Ability To Treat Races Equally

Americans have little confidence in the police, according to a USA Today/Pew Research Center poll released on Tuesday. The survey found that most people think police departments don’t do a good job “holding officers accountable for misconduct, treating racial groups equally, and using the right amount of force.” But there are large racial and political divides when it comes to assessing police officers’ job performance.

The poll was conducted two weeks after Michael Brown, an unarmed black teenager, was fatally shot six times by a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri.

It found that 70 percent of blacks, 27 percent of whites, and 36 percent of all surveyed think that police departments across the country do a “poor” job of holding police officers accountable for their actions. When it comes to treating racial and ethnic groups equally, 70 percent of blacks, 25 percent of whites, and 33 percent in total think that police do a “poor” job. Similarly, 57 percent of blacks, 23 percent of whites, and 30 percent overall think that police departments do a “poor” job of using the proper amount of force.

Though whites view the police in a far more positive light than black respondents, only 37 percent of whites think that police departments do an “excellent” or “good” job of holding officers accountable, and 38 percent think that they do an “excellent” or “good” job of treating different races and ethnicities equally.

But the numbers are very different when it comes to assessing local police forces. Whites are almost twice as likely (72 percent of whites vs. 36 percent of blacks) to say that they have confidence in their police forces to treat whites and blacks equally. These numbers are very similar to the results from a 2009 survey asking the same question. The percentage of blacks who say they have “very little” confidence that police will treat them equally has increased from 34 percent in 2009 to 46 percent today.

There’s also a divide (74 percent of whites vs. 36 percent of blacks) when it comes to confidence that local police departments won’t use excessive force. More than half surveyed, and 60 percent of whites, say they are comfortable with police departments using military equipment and weapons, but 68 percent of blacks say that they have “not too much” or “no” confidence at all in police.

A large political gap also exists on police performance, which the pollsters say may be influenced by the “highly negative views of black Democrats.” Most Democrats (73 percent) think police departments only do a “fair” or “poor” job of holding officers accountable for misconduct, compared to 52 percent of Republicans who agree. Though black Democrats are far more likely than white Democrats to be critical of police accountability, white Democrats are more critical than Republicans overall. Young people are also overwhelmingly more critical of the police than those aged 50 and older.

The poll also found that most respondents (69 percent total, 75 percent of whites, and 64 percent of blacks) think that blacks and whites get along “very well.” But fewer blacks think so than in 2009.

AFP Photo/Michael B. Thomas

Interested in national news? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!