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Why Obama Is Going To Win

Carville-Greenberg

Why Obama Is Going To Win

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James and I are ready to put down our marker: President Obama is going to win re-election on Tuesday. Although many pundits are calling the race a tossup, our last national tracking survey shows the president clearly ahead. President Obama has all of the momentum, he holds leads in the key swing states, and he is on track to score a comfortable victory in the electoral college:

 

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81 Comments

  1. a.e. ventura November 5, 2012

    I see this as the only outcome, anything less will be the result of some tricky poll thievery.

    Reply
  2. Smeagel4T November 5, 2012

    This election was always going to be based on progressive voter turn-out. Conservative groups know that as well. Conservative groups tend to put forth conservative propositions, etc, during mid-term elections because progressive turn-out is lower in mid-term elections. This is a persistent long-term problem that needs to be addressed.

    Reply
  3. Bob Mcghee November 5, 2012

    four points is way too close. anyone who voted for romnesia must be 1.) racist 2.) ignorant 3.) illiterate 4.) bellicose 5.) buys the mendacity 6.) or just is an asshat

    Reply
    1. Lucas L. Ittle November 5, 2012

      It’s unfortunate when the KKK backs you.

      Reply
      1. Bob Mcghee November 5, 2012

        huh?

        Reply
    2. sellorbuy1 November 5, 2012

      agreed, why is this so seemingly close , at least according to the biased pollsters. scary that there is such a percentage of people who would actually vote for romney

      Reply
      1. lmallak99 November 5, 2012

        YES IT IS VERY SCARY! If, God forbid, Romney/Ryan win it would set a precedent for the resurgence of PROPAGANDA! “Yes, you can be president if you can get enough money to keep blasting your BS until the majority start believing you.” I shudder to think of the new lows that politics could reach in the future if the BS campaign emerges victorious.

        Reply
        1. Macaroni12 November 5, 2012

          I agree…..common sense tells us the damage Romney has done to our voting system…..Lies work big time…without lies in this election…Obama wins big…….Romney is brilliant….wanted this for his trophy case….Obama wants it for the nation….That should be obvious…..I am surprised and disturbed that so many in our nation have bought the mis-information….I guess maybe what someone told me…..Don’t be surprised if the voters believe a white man…..distrust the black guy….and will propagate the reckless stories…..Bhengazi is just another foreign war catastrophe…..the GOP to their discredit has created deceit that permeates…..permeates because it is the kind of anti-Obama story they relish….far-fetched and proven unreliable….still has bias believers.

          Reply
          1. ANN November 6, 2012

            I feel Romney is not only in this for a trophy,it just seemed like he’s been competing with his father. If he does win its just a feather in his cap. We will be headed for a nuculor war,and total financial collapse. I hope I’m over reacting.

            Reply
          2. StacyJB November 6, 2012

            I think he wants to be the first Mormon president. And I think it is not as close as media ould have you believe. I think journalists cast it as close to keep you tuning in and the network selling ad space.

            Reply
          3. Katherine November 6, 2012

            You maybe right. Too many people lives and our COUNTRY is at stake! This is reality voting I hope and not intimidation voting, because too many people are suffering (all Races) to let the RICH take control and continue using the taxpayers dollars to earn their percentage on their wealth. More poor people than RICH people!

            Reply
          4. DurdyDawg November 6, 2012

            Yes, I believe you’re over-reacting Ann (not, however, concerning financial collapse). Romney is nothing more than a capitalist vulture.. his other ‘hats’ depends on his masters’ desire (and I’m not referring to his mormon god). To him, a nuclear holocaust does not equate to financial profit.. Small wars is his agenda. Now Ryan on the other hand is quite a different story and the only thing that would separate him from that button would be one simple assassination. HE, I’m leery of.

            Reply
          5. grammyjill November 6, 2012

            I fear you are not.

            Reply
          6. Josiette November 7, 2012

            I completely agree! I knew when Bush stole the election from Gore…. that we were going to war.. just like his Father did to our Nation. If Romney won the office you are right!! War would be first on the agenda…. another chance to play “army man”…. at our expense!

            Reply
        2. Rvn_sgt6768 November 6, 2012

          It worked for Romney in the Republican primaries on Republicans. Let’s hope Democrats are much smarter.

          Reply
      2. StacyJB November 6, 2012

        Scarier that so many that wil vote for him are voting against their own interests.

        Reply
    3. moplus November 5, 2012

      So they can steal the election and no one will question the outcome given the fact that the pollsters have been conditioning the public for the so-called close election.

      Reply
    4. Chris Drake November 5, 2012

      I am an Obama supporter and have been more involved in this presidential election than ever before. However, I disagree with the statement about all Romney supporters. I know some people who do not care about much of Romney’s agenda except his economic plan. I think they are wrong and Romney will not do much for the economy but facts is that Obama has not been forceful enough in improving the economy. That is his major short coming and the reason why this election is so close. Some people just don’t believe that Obama’s economic plan will work. Most economics is theory and it is not an exact science.

      Reply
      1. Rvn_sgt6768 November 6, 2012

        I think I understand your post, you are an Obama supporter but………………. Fill in any of the Republican lies here. First off you need to take a real hard look at the economic condition when President Obama was elected. Understand just what the meltdown did here in America, but how it was spread throughout the World and the impact that is still being felt in the World relative to how we have improved our situation here. Many of the Euro Countries still have over 20% unemployment and the answer of draconian austerity measures have made it worse there. President had to save not just the banks but the auto industry, housing industry and the entire American Economy literally all at once. Even in the great depression we did not have so many things happen all at once. Today everyone of these are recovering and if President Obama had had the help he needed (which was always present in previous recoveries) from the Congress think of where we would be today. It would have happened sooner and been much more robust. It is important for the World for America to become the leader in economic issues and then during the World recovery our economy in turn will continue to get better. Even China is not doing as well as they were and their economy can not drive the World as ours does. I for one am as frustrated at the Congress for their disobeying the oath of office they take which should put the people of America first not party politics. To have a lobbyist be the head of Congress and second in importance (first in the republican Party) to the President in unthinkable. How did a turd like Grover Norquist get his power? He should be banned from ever doing business on the Hill again. We need to get back to “of the people, for the people” government and any deviation from that principal should merit immediate judicial investigation.

        Reply
        1. Ed November 6, 2012

          Sarge, no sense trying to reason with these people. Actually the truth is they are willing to vote against their own self interest to get rid of “that guy that doesn’t look like me”.

          Reply
        2. grammyjill November 6, 2012

          on care2 there is a petition to get rid of Grover Norquist.

          Reply
      2. Ed November 6, 2012

        Actually it is so uncertain it is called “The Dismal Science”.

        Reply
      3. Cairndance November 6, 2012

        What Romney economic plan???
        He can say he has one all he wants but he has not stated even one actual thing that he plans to do!
        Just stating that you can create 12 million new jobs, os not a plan!
        Besides the fact that everyone already agrees that there will be 12 million new jobs in the next 4 years!
        Romney doesn’t have a plan except to become BUSH III.

        Reply
    5. Fern Woodfork November 6, 2012

      We Don’t Want No Liar , Shape Shifter, Greedy Thug Running our Country Back In The Ground Again!! Romney Is Bush On Steroids!!!

      Reply
    6. DurdyDawg November 6, 2012

      Since this election has produced the most outlandish idiots that (so far) has ever been spawned, I vote ‘asshat’.. mainly because the phrase is spot on (fits these nim-nods so well) but partly because I like the description.. You Go Bob!!

      Reply
  4. Richard Bernier Fuller November 5, 2012

    I have faith that common sense will prevail and that everything you have said is true.

    Reply
    1. imabrummie November 6, 2012

      I pray you are right about common sense prevailing and that the vast majority have enough intelligence to see through the lies and garbage spewed by Mr. Bendyboots RoMoney! If they don’t then I’m afraid this country’s goose is well and truly cooked.

      Reply
  5. Bob Mcghee November 5, 2012

    WHO is my country composed of? dear god.

    Reply
  6. Dan Minichiello November 5, 2012

    There is one very important reason that Obama must win re-election, and that is the SCOTUS. Remember 2000! If Romney is elected and he is allowed to appoint 2 and possibly 3 conservative judges, which allow strict voter registration laws to prevail, 2000 will not be an exception, and the right will be in control of American society and policies for a long time to come.

    Reply
  7. sellorbuy1 November 5, 2012

    From your lips to God’s ears. New subscriber. Love it

    Reply
  8. sellorbuy1 November 5, 2012

    From your lips….. GReat site and column. New follower

    Reply
  9. commonknowledge November 5, 2012

    What else are they going to say. Sample? Turnout model? Where is it? Internals? Independents favoring Romney by only 4? Most polls with far larger samples show independents favor Romney by well over 10 points. I guess we’ll see who’s right.

    Reply
    1. jnagarya November 5, 2012

      See Nate Silver.

      Unless you’re one of those who rejects science and reason, therefore insists that when your guys ahead, the polls are infallible, but when he’s behind the polls are a vast Marxist conspiracy.

      Reply
  10. Luanne Taylor November 5, 2012

    I’m the Dem voter this year, no doubt, all the way across the board, but I want to say, I really thought after Romney refused to release his tax returns, and CEOs started telling employees how to vote and that Rollingstone article on Romney and his work methods, PLUS so much other RNC weirdness that we were going to see a landslide…I am really worried about some of my fellow Citizens. We must undo Super Pac damage, we must call people and/or news networks on FALSE information (bring back the Fairness Doctrine), and we MUST undo Citizens United. Work fast President Obama and be tough, SUPER tough this time. Love,

    Reply
    1. Ed November 6, 2012

      I believe 11 states(I know for sure there are 7) have petitioned congress for a constitutional amendment overtuening Citizens United. It takes 37 states to make it happen.

      Reply
  11. ckspeegle November 5, 2012

    Am I the only one who worries that the Republicans are acting like the polls are closer that they are because they know their poll tactics and Tagg Romney machines are going to steal the race?

    Reply
    1. ryueire November 6, 2012

      I hope you are wrong but I would not put it past this group to steal the election as it worked before. If it does happen, I think America needs to go to the deepest analysis of what a democracy is; even if civil discontent/war is considered over this. Otherwise we (the disdained 47%) will have become truly sheep to be bled and used.
      I for one, refuse to adhere to this. The rich, elite, powerful and dishonest? F*&K THEM.
      Our forefathers, our armed services, and our children deserve for us to be better than what a dishonest minority might attempt.

      Reply
  12. BlueAlliance November 5, 2012

    Please don’t underestimate Karl Rove and his minions who are working behind the scenes! If the incoming votes change suddenly at the end of the night…..you will know where to look.
    Don’t forget 2004…please!

    Reply
  13. Andrew Brady November 5, 2012

    Great short insight Stan, it was good to meet you several years ago at Unite the Union’s policy conference in the UK to then talk about labor unions work in the UK General Election of 2010

    Reply
  14. Patricia Dirlam November 5, 2012

    I agree with you, judging from 538, who I trust. However, if the Diebold controllers have their way, the votes won’t matter as much as who counts them. What is being done to break in and hack the hackers?

    Reply
    1. Cairndance November 6, 2012

      It was just reported on ABC News. They showed a machine turning an Obama vote into a Romney vote! They pulled this machine, but how many others will go unnoticed?

      Reply
  15. Beaulieu6 November 5, 2012

    I’m optimistic and confident that President Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election to serve a second term as President Obama is the right man for the job, we will finih the work we began in 2009 “FORWARD”!

    Reply
  16. beth November 5, 2012

    This Country needs to show the rt. wing there stupid people not bad just stupid very stupid

    Reply
  17. Elisabeth Gordon November 6, 2012

    I think with Obama’s comfortable lead in the electoral college, we can start making predictions on this Wednesday’s headline:

    “Moon Pushed Out Of Orbit As Planet Earth Breathes Collective Sigh of Relief”

    Reply
    1. Shay Ahmed November 6, 2012

      🙂

      Reply
  18. Ant Duke November 6, 2012

    From a foreigner’s point if view, we don’t want to see another idiot appeasing the military-industrial complex or sector with another war. Export the goodwill and intentions of Obama instead…

    Reply
  19. Amelia November 6, 2012

    if my people dont think this election is important tell thim to go talk to some older person whome have come up under the repu,if you are rich and dont have to work, an have a good way to go . yes vote rep. if you gotter work to make a living you are a democratic.if this man get to be president, he is going to turn around all the good that obama has done. and dont blame no body but your own self , if you dont go vote

    Reply
  20. STUART November 6, 2012

    i HOPE YOU’RE RIGHT BECAUSE I COULD NOT STAND A ROMNEY/RYAN ADMINISTRATION.

    Reply
  21. Robert November 6, 2012

    Thank God for president Obama victory and may all americans and the world love each other and we all prosper in good faith keeping our eye on the Lord God almighty in the denomination of which we choose to worship God but let in be in sincerity and in truth.
    Carolyn P.
    worship and praise God

    Reply
  22. YepThatTell November 6, 2012

    How sweet it would be to know that We The People had more power than all the millions of dollars spent by Koch Brothers, Adelson, Rove, et al, to mislead the public.

    Reply
    1. Shay Ahmed November 6, 2012

      Amen

      Reply
  23. jackman547 November 6, 2012

    Like everyone else that gets a new job they should be on a 90 day probation and if they
    don’t cut it they should be replaced!!!!!

    Reply
  24. James Curci November 6, 2012

    Beware of voting machines flipping your vote to Willard Slick Mittens R’money, it’s happened in South Florida and other States, CHECK YOUR BALLOT before casting your vote.

    Reply
    1. ALLLLAMERICAN November 6, 2012

      For one thing you should NEVER EVER EVER use those stupid computerized voting machines.
      WE asked for the old school paper ballots!!

      THIS WAS ONLINE:

      MORE ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES CHANGING ROMNEY VOTES TO OBAMA:
      WE LOOKED INTO IT AND HERE’S WHAT A VENDOR TOLD US

      Lawyer to the Secretaries of State in Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina, Missouri, Kansas and Nevada, claiming that, according to “media and citizen reports,” “voting machines in your states have populated [sic] a vote for
      Barack Obama when a voter cast his or her ballot for Mitt Romney.”

      Reply
      1. Cairndance November 6, 2012

        Interesting, I just saw a report showing it the other way around!
        Were you watching FOX by any chance?
        You do know that Romney’s son owns many of those voting machines? Not a very good image for Romney to have his son buy machines! Even if they aren’t rigged, it just doesn’t “LOOK” right!

        Reply
        1. ALLLLAMERICAN November 7, 2012

          Yes—-I am aware that Tagg Romney Owns Ohio Voting Machines—
          He owns many others also.
          Sooo What—-
          They would get caught if THEY cheated!!!!
          Maybe next election YOU could own some!!!
          These people are not the bad people that the LIB channels made them out to be!!!!!!!

          Reply
      2. grammyjill November 6, 2012

        Yea, those machines suck. Three other countries that used them ended up junking them and going back to paper ballots. That’s what we need to do too.

        Reply
  25. Skyline43 November 6, 2012

    I think President Obama will win by a huge margin. I can’t believe anyone in the USA would approve of Romney’s deliberate attempts to destort the truth and that 47% of us don’t see into his character! I trust the judgement of my fellow Americans(Democrat or Republican) far more then I could ever trust Romney as my President. I supported President Obama the first four years and I see absolutely no reason to give up on him now. He will help the middle class because Romney has never been there. Romney was born into wealth, as well, as making millions off the the middle man through Bains. That’s why I think President Obama will come out on top tonight in a big way.

    Reply
  26. velvetlace November 6, 2012

    I hope you are right. I used to be a moderate Republican, but Republican Party left me in the dust. I voted for President Obama in 2008, and I have voted for him again. I really think he will go down in history as a great President like FDR. I pray that the Congress will work with President Obama so that we can bring our country back together again. God bless President Obama!

    Reply
  27. dicksonjames November 6, 2012

    As I approached this election, I wrote many letters-to-the-editors, made many arguments against Romney and tried to encourage President Obama. If the angry ones should win, I will be writing a serious letter to Romney every week! dicksonjames

    Reply
    1. grammyjill November 6, 2012

      Me too! I even got fan mail. lol

      Reply
  28. Katherine November 6, 2012

    Keep on Pushing and going forward. Don’t let Republicans take credit for what this President has did to stabilize the ECONOMY! Afterall, they weren’t worried about the Economy when BUSH was in office!. Malarky! Romney cannot fix the Eonomy like scarry people think he can. But one thing is a FACT, it is easy to reverse than to push on forward, take dedication and determination to face difficulty like the President has, and most of all, PERSERVERANCE!

    Reply
  29. ObozoMustGo November 6, 2012

    Obozo will lose in a landslide. Even the NY Post knows that.

    [click image to enlarge]

    Have a nice day!

    “The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency…Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president.” – Czech Republic newspaper Prager Zeitung

    Reply
    1. patuxant November 6, 2012

      Get over your fat ass self! Your remarks are useless, bigoted and ignorant!

      Reply
      1. ObozoMustGo November 6, 2012

        puxy… I thought you crawled back under your rock after the abuse I gave you yesterday.

        Don’t forget to vote tomorrow. Have a nice day!

        “When Obozo called the SEALs, they got Bin Laden. When the SEALs called Obozo, they got denied.” – Navy SEAL’s Facebook posting that was censored and then later uncensored

        Reply
        1. patuxant November 6, 2012

          no… you are like my ex husband,,,a fool a jackass and a loser!

          Reply
          1. ObozoMustGo November 6, 2012

            puxy… you’re like my ex wife… a nasty, perpetually angry and pigheaded little beatch! Probably a difference though… she is hot! Dem chicks are usually masculine, overweight, and ugly. Not sure if that applies to you, but according to a UCLA study there’s a good chance it does! LOL

            Have a nice evening watching Obozo get his but kicked!

            “Don’t go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first.” – Mark Twain

            Reply
          2. patuxant November 6, 2012

            Wow! How cool that you can make such generalizations! Wonderful for you! Thanks for the UCLA “study” reference. If you behave yourself, I might just send you a pix.

            Reply
          3. ObozoMustGo November 7, 2012

            puxy… I was kidding… hence the LOL… Actually the UCLA study is true. It was released in the summer. And it was funny. That was the reference. Nothing else.

            Well, your guy won. Congratulations are in order. And the battle continues as it would have if it went the other way.

            Have a nice day!

            PS> looking forward to that pix. 🙂

            “Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.” – Alexis de Tocqueville

            Reply
        2. patuxant November 6, 2012

          Talk tomorrow after the results…hope you have a good night!

          Reply
          1. ObozoMustGo November 6, 2012

            puxy… we will see, won’t we. Nice going back and forth with you. You do crack me up.

            Have a nice evening!

            By the way, here’s a typical Romney voting woman. [click image to enlarge]

            “I am afraid that there is a certain class of race-problem solvers who don’t want the patient to get well, because as long as the disease holds out they have not only an easy means of making a living, but also an easy medium through which to make themselves prominent before the public.” – Booker T. Washington

            Reply
  30. Margaret Dent November 6, 2012

    I think so too

    Reply
  31. Angelia Durant November 6, 2012

    Romensia us getting ready to be charge with violating Federal Ryhic Law. came from a report.

    Reply
    1. patuxant November 6, 2012

      Good! He is a Putz and a liar!

      Reply
  32. flintsone November 6, 2012

    this election sits on a runway…but not ready 4 takeoff…. it has landed with a promise to end the
    war on gridlock…and open the door to nation building… teaching mankind… playing on a level field…. where one has failed….one must continue…. President Obama must weather the storm
    and not run from the tiger…but become a tiger…not fear the lion… but become a lion…

    Reply
  33. Mary Prubant November 6, 2012

    I’m a Canadian living in the U.S. and have been following this election with great interest. I sure wish I could vote; if I could, it would be Obama.

    Reply
  34. Kirby Record November 6, 2012

    I like the confidence and I think Obama wins but it is hard to be overconfident in this situation. There are just so many intangibles that could turn the race. A narrow loss in Ohio could swing it the other way if Obama doesn’t perform up to expectations. On the other hand, there is just as likely a chance that Obama wins by 20 to 30 electoral votes.

    Reply
  35. williamd November 6, 2012

    We’ll see. I hope they’re right

    Reply
  36. BrightQuang November 6, 2012

    I had predicted that our president Obama must win this general election.

    Reply
  37. Fern Woodfork November 7, 2012

    OBAMA WON!!! WE DON’T WANT NO LYING SHAPE SHIFTER RUNNING THIS COUNTRY BACK IN THE GROUND AGAIN!!! ROMNEY IS BUSH ON STEROIDS!!!

    Reply
  38. ALLLLAMERICAN November 7, 2012

    Fern—YOUR NOT TO SMART!!!!

    “IF” you really are a nurse (which is hard to believe with that mouth)

    It was announced —-As soon as Obamacare hits they will be laying NURSES OFF!!!!!!!

    YOUR NOT TO SMART ARE YA

    Reply

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