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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The polls this week show Hillary Clinton still on solid ground in the presidential race, and Republicans still sorting out their own field.

A Quinnipiac University poll released this week shows a wide-open race for the Republican nomination, with five candidates tied for first place: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker, each with 10 percent support. The biggest “winner” in the poll was actually the undecided vote, at 20 percent.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton led with 57 percent, followed way behind by Bernie Sanders at 15 percent, Joe Biden with 9 percent, and no other candidate above 1 percent. (“Undecided” had 14 percent.)

The poll also showed Hillary Clinton leading all potential Republican opponents:

  • Clinton 46 percent, Chris Christie 37 percent.
  • Clinton 46 percent, Rand Paul 42 percent.
  • Clinton 47 percent, Mike Huckabee 40 percent.
  • Clinton 47 percent, Jeb Bush 37 percent.
  • Clinton 45 percent, Marco Rubio 41 percent.
  • Clinton 46 percent, Scott Walker 38 percent.
  • Clinton 48 percent, Ted Cruz 37 percent.
  • Clinton 50 percent, Donald Trump 32 percent.

Also notable, given the recent controversies involving Jeb Bush’s shifting answers on the Iraq War, the poll asked this question: “Do you think going to war with Iraq in 2003 was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?”

The result showed only 32 percent of registered voters thinking that the Iraq War was the right thing, against a whopping 59 percent who say it was the wrong thing. But from there, observe the partisan cross-tabs:

  • Democrats: Right thing, 16 percent; Wrong thing, 78 percent.
  • Republicans: Right thing, 62 percent; Wrong thing, 28 percent.
  • Independents: Right thing, 26 percent; Wrong thing, 65 percent.

Thus, continued support for the Iraq War decision is driven almost entirely by Republicans — many of whom will be voting in the party’s presidential primaries.

In other races down-ballot:

  • A University of New Hampshire poll finds incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) with only a narrow lead over her potential Democratic rival, Governor Maggie Hassan (D-NH): Ayotte 45 percent, Hassan 43 percent. The survey of likely voters was conducted from May 6 to 22, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
  • In Pennsylvania, a survey by Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling has incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) narrowly ahead in a rematch with his 2010 opponent, former Democratic congressman Joe Sestak (D-PA): Toomey 42 percent, Sestak 38 percent. The survey of registered voters was conducted from May 21 to 24, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Photo: Former governor Jeb Bush of Florida speaking at the 2015 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)

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Copyright 2015 The National Memo
  • Dominick Vila

    Most Republicans don’t have a problem with the Iraq war. The part they don’t want to be held accountable for involves casualties. A mere insinuation that a perpetual occupation of Iraq would, among other things, result in U.S. soldiers getting killed or maimed elicits their ire and robust protestations. I guess their preference, when it comes to casualties, is a video game style war.

    • itsfun

      I can’t think of any person that wants anyone to die in a war anywhere, either Republican or Democrat. Doesn’t the use of drones by Obama resemble a video game style war? Personally I think we should leave that part of the world and let them fight among their selves as they have for over 2000 years. If they decide to kill all of us infidels, and try to attack us, then we should retaliate in the harshest of ways.

      • edwardw69

        I rarely agree with you, but you got it right this time.

      • Dominick Vila

        I also support total withdrawal from countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen and Somalia. The civil unrest that is going on in those countries, their preference to embrace medieval Islamic concepts, and their determination to defend their values and traditions, should be enough for us to get out of that part of the world and let them choose what they believe is best for them. None of those countries pose a real threat to our national security. If it turns out that they do, I want my money back. We have spent trillions of dollars on defense, have the best equipped, trained, and disciplined armed forces in the world. I can’t imagine anyone suggesting that we should remain there because people in those countries are a danger to our national security.

      • dpaano

        That’s what should have occurred to Bush when he started this stupid, uncalled for war. Because we stepped in and started the chaos in Iraq, that just escalated the entire Middle East problems!!

        • itsfun

          We had a congress that supported the effort and many countries from the UN. It wasn’t just Bush.

          • dpaano

            Yes, based solely on iies told to them and the American public by Bush, Cheney, Rove, and Condi.

          • itsfun

            You left out Powell. and every other living Republican

    • FT66

      Dominick, republicans can’t have problem with war and dislike casualties. Going to war is not like going to dancing, holding the partner close and feel the life is real. That is not the case. If one agrees to enter the battle of killing (war), must agree what comes out of it. That is casualties or to put it better bags of dead people.

      • Dominick Vila

        I agree, and that is why their criticism of President Obama’s decision to adhere to the withdrawal schedule agreed upon by W does not make any sense. In addition to being an admission of failure, the idea of a permanent, or extended, occupation of Iraq without casualties is ridiculous. They either admit that they are willing to sacrifice American lives to keep the puppet government we put in place in Iraq in power, or stop criticizing President Obama for doing what W was planning to do.

  • @HawaiianTater

    I posted a comment about Bernie gaining ground on Hillary and it gets deleted? What the hell?

    • Dominick Vila

      I experienced the same a couple of times since I joined this forum several years ago. I don’t know why that happens, but I don’t think it is intentional.
      I support most of what Bernie Sanders is saying, and I am impressed by his willingness to propose solutions, something that most of the other candidates avoid at all cost, but I am convinced that his candidacy is a long shot. Not because he is not qualified or deserve to be elected, but because he does not have the name recognition and financial backing needed to become POTUS. In fact, I’ll be surprised if he is chosen for the Nr 2 spot. The same goes for O’Malley.

      • @HawaiianTater

        As I posted earlier but it got deleted, it wasn’t that long ago that Bernie was polling at 2-3 percent in the primaries. He’s up to 15% now. That’s a significant gain. He’s gaining steam. Like the man said, do not underestimate him.

        I’m watching O’Malley’s announcement now. He’s alright but he’s no Bernie. He’s saying a lot of good things but he is not offering as much of a plan as Bernie does. I don’t have a problem with O’Malley but he sounds too much like a politician; compared to Bernie, who is 100% real.

      • FT66

        Come on Dominick and HawaiianTater. We all do what works for us. Whether one likes what Bernie Sanders says or not, the man is not going to win the primaries. This kind of support is dividing the Party for nothing. Yes you might like what he says, but can’t you sit down, take a moment and ask yourself where that narrative will take you to? Winning? of course not. Then what is the use of supporting him? Hmmmm! we were given brains to use it and not spoil it.

        • Dominick Vila

          That is why I support Hillary’s candidacy, and not Bernie’s.

          • FT66

            Good Dominick. Nice to hear we are all still sailing on the same boat.

        • @HawaiianTater

          Do not underestimate Bernie. He’s gaining ground in the polls and will give Hillary a run for her money.

          That said, if/when Hillary gets the nom, I will back her 100%. Until that time comes, I’m backing Bernie.

  • barneybolt12

    The voters in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania need to be reminded daily that their GOP Sen. signed Tom Cottons letter undermining POTUS, along with the 45 other nitwits.

  • booker25

    Of course the GOP like Iraq, none will admit it was a mistake to invade and stay, none will admit the US invaded on a lie. None will admit Cheney made big bucks on this lie to invade Iraq. Bush and Cheney, two untried war criminals.