Tag: convicted
New 538 Poll Average Shows Trump Approval In Steep Decline

New 538 Poll Average Shows Trump Approval In Steep Decline

President Donald Trump's honeymoon is officially over.

The convicted felon's job-approval rating is now underwater, according to 538’s polling average, and it’s happened just a little more than one month into his second term.

According to 538’s average, which sadly is unlikely to be updated anymore after ABC News laid off the site’s entire staff on Tuesday, 47.9 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Trump is doing in office, while 47.6 percent approve.

The polling average largely tracks with a Civiqs poll conducted for Daily Kos, which found 52% of voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing, compared with 48 percent who approve.

According to 538’s average, Trump's job approval rating is in a state of steep decline. On Inauguration Day, his net approval rating was +8.2 percentage points, and now it is -0.3 points.

"Trump’s approval rating is underwater again—a month and a half after beginning his term with his highest approval ratings ever (+8)," Jacob Rubashkin, an elections analyst with the outlet Inside Elections, wrote in a post on X.

The quick end to Trump's honeymoon is in stark contrast to past presidents.

Former President Joe Biden had a positive approval rating until September of his first year in office, according to 538’s average. Former President Barack Obama had a net-positive approval rating until around August 2010—well over a year into his first term—according to 538’s historical averages. And former President George W. Bush had a net-positive rating nearly his entire first term in office, before the public soured on him around May 2004.

Public opinion on Trump has dropped amid the chaos he and his administration have wrought on the country.

The mass purge of the federal workforce, led by co-president Elon Musk, has left thousands out of work and others worried about negative downstream economic impacts.

The tariffs Trump imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico have led to a steep decline in the stock market amid fears that the results of Trump's policy will once again stoke inflation.

And Trump's embrace of murderous Russian dictator Vladimir Putin over U.S. ally Ukraine is also deeply unpopular.

“We’re going to look at presidents at this point in their presidency, right, and the word here that I would use to describe Trump is awful. In fact, the only person who does worse than Trump does right now with a +1 net approval rating is himself back in 2017, when he was at -8,” CNN’s Harry Enten said on Tuesday -- before the FiveThirtyEight average turned negative.

Enten continued, “Donald Trump is doing historically awful.”

And with the economy teetering on the brink of a recession, Trump's approval rating could tumble even further.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Donald Trump

Trump Recycled Fox  News Lie About Immigrants And Social Security

Convicted felon, former president, and presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump falsely suggested twice during last night's presidential debate that undocumented immigrants are illegally receiving benefits through Social Security and Medicare, and undermining the financial stability of the programs. In fact, undocumented immigrants are ineligible for most federal benefit programs, and they actually contribute to Social Security and Medicare through payroll taxes.

Trump repeated the false claim twice last night, and it echoed one he has been telling since at least the 2020 campaign. The false claim seems to be based on Trump’s misunderstanding of a Fox News report in 2019 about then-presidential candidate Joe Biden’s response to a question about healthcare policy. Both PolitiFact and Washington Post fact checker Glenn Kessler dismantled Trump's argument in September 2020, which falsely claimed “Biden's promising your benefits to illegal immigrants” in reference to Medicare and Social Security. From The Washington Post:

The suggestion that some other worker, let alone illegal immigrants, can receive “your benefits” is simply wrong. Your benefits are established under the law, depending how long you have worked and for how much. Maybe the ad means “the same benefits,” but as phrased it is misleading.

Biden has called for a path for citizenship for some 11 million undocumented immigrants — a standard position for a Democrat. If these people ever become citizens, they too would be eligible to earn Social Security benefits.

Undocumented workers currently are not eligible for Social Security. Yet with few exceptions, workers in the United States must pay a portion of their earnings to Social Security, which is matched by their employer. Thus workers in the country illegally who have fraudulent or unauthorized Social Security numbers are paying into the system but do not get any benefits.

In response to last night's debate, New York Times correspondent Jim Tankersley again fact-checked Trump’s false claim and reiterated that undocumented workers are not eligible to receive Social Security benefits even though they pay into the system:

Mr. Trump has this backward. Undocumented workers often pay taxes that help fund Social Security. But, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office once noted, “most unauthorized immigrants are prohibited from receiving many of the benefits that the federal government provides through Social Security and such need-based programs as food stamps, Medicaid (other than emergency services) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.”

Undocumented immigrants are not eligible to receive most federal benefit programs, including those for healthcare and retirement. President Biden never said that he supported making undocumented immigrants eligible to receive Social Security (or Medicare and Medicaid) and he has actually outlined a plan to extend the solvency of the vital retirement program by increasing the payroll tax threshold so more money from high-income earners will be paid into the system.

Trump, meanwhile, has floated cutting Social Security and restricting other entitlement benefits if he returns to the Oval Office. As president, Trump repeatedly included cuts to Social Security and Medicare in his budget proposals. Trump has no shortage of right-wing allies, like Project 2025 organizer The Heritage Foundation, that are eager to join his effort to gut American retirement programs.

Reprinted with permission from Media Matters.

New York Police Revoke Felon Trump's Concealed-Carry Permit

New York Police Revoke Felon Trump's Concealed-Carry Permit

Former President Donald Trump can no longer legally own firearms after he was convicted of 34 felonies last week. The New York Police Department (NYPD) is now preparing to enforce the law by formally revoking the former president's gun license.

According to CNN, Trump's firearm license was already suspended after he was indicted on felony counts, and two pistols he owned were turned over to the NYPD in March of last year. Now, as an official convicted felon, the 45th president of the United States is banned from owning guns entirely in accordance with federal law.

A senior NYPD official told the outlet that an investigation is currently ongoing that "will likely lead to revocation of [Trump’s] license" to carry firearms. A third weapon that Trump legally transferred to Florida after he officially changed residences from Trump Tower to Mar-a-Lago is also expected to be surrendered to authorities, if it hasn't already (CNN has not confirmed whether Trump turned over the third firearm to Florida law enforcement).

Trump was a gun owner well before he ran for president in 2015. However, his license was exempted from public records as he submitted his firearm license application with a request for confidentiality. He reportedly maintained his license throughout his presidency, even though he's had a permanent Secret Service detail since he became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee ahead of the 2016 election.

In a 2012 interview, Trump told the Washington Times that he owned a .45-caliber H&K handgun and a .38-caliber Smith & Wesson pistol. He also suggested that the deadly Aurora, Colorado movie theater shooting that year could have been prevented if moviegoers were armed (the shooter was wearing body armor, carried an AR-15 rifle and picked up 160 pounds of ammunition from a FedEx store before the shooting).

"If some of the people in the movie theater had a gun, they’d have been shooting at him," Trump said at the time. "Nobody had a gun so they were totally defenseless."

Trump also told a conservative French newspaper in 2016 that he "always" carries a gun on his person, and made similar comments following a terrorist attack at the Bataclan music hall.

"I always carry a weapon on me. If I'd been at the Bataclan or one of those bars, I would have opened fire," Trump told Valeurs Actuelles. "Perhaps I would have died, but at least I would have taken a shot. The worst thing is the powerlessness to respond to those who want to kill you."

The former president losing his gun rights is a major development for Trump, given his strong support from the gun lobby. If elected to a second term, Trump has promised to roll back numerous gun reform policies enacted during President Joe Biden's administration. This includes the Safer Communities Act, which was the gun legislation Congress passed in response to the massacre of more than a dozen young children and teachers at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas in 2022.

Trump is expected to officially file his appeal of the 34 felony convictions after Judge Juan Merchan enters his sentencing order on July 11. If the former president is successful in his appeal, his gun rights could be restored.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

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