Tag: greg orman
Moderate Thunder Out Of Kansas

Moderate Thunder Out Of Kansas

IOLA, KS. — The several dozen citizens gathered at a street corner just off the main square of this southeastern Kansas town of 5,600 were polite and friendly in the Midwestern way. They did not look in the least like a band of counterrevolutionaries intent on reversing the direction of the government in Topeka.

Yet the results of the Tea Party rebellion four years ago have led these civic-minded, middle-of-the-road Kansans to a quiet but fierce determination to take their state back from those who once talked incessantly about taking their country back.

What brought them together earlier this week was a visit from Paul Davis, the Democratic candidate for governor. Davis has generally been running ahead of Republican incumbent Sam Brownback in what is one of the country’s most consequential showdowns on next Tuesday’s ballot.

Brownback set things up this way by launching what he called, proudly and unapologetically, a “real, live experiment” that he hoped would provide a model of red-state governance. He pushed steep income and business tax cuts through the Legislature, insisting that his program would spur unprecedented economic growth. The results so far have been less than inspiring: large budget deficits, credit downgrades, and substantial cuts in education spending, some of which were reversed only because of a court order. Only rarely does an election pose such a clear philosophical and policy choice.

Brownback often cited low-tax Texas as his model, prompting a ready reply from Davis. “They don’t want to be like Texas,” he said in an interview at his storefront headquarters here. “They just want to be Kansas.”

What it means to be Kansas is precisely what’s at stake, and it’s why Davis’ campaign uses #RestoreKansas — a traditionalist’s slogan when you think about it — as its Twitter battle cry. The choice Davis is offering is not between liberalism and conservatism but between two kinds of conservatism — the deeply anti-government Tea Party kind, and an older variety that values prudence and fiscal restraint but also expects government to provide, as Davis put it, “the basic services that are essential to the state’s vitality.”

In his stump speech, Davis emphasizes public education, transportation, Brownback’s rejection of the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, and a widely unpopular privatization of Kansas’ Medicaid program.

What’s striking is how many Republicans have joined Davis’ effort, including a large group of Republican politicians, some of whom Brownback purged in bitter primaries. Achieving ideological purity in the GOP turns out to have high costs, and Davis spoke of “the many functions we’ve had where we had more Republicans than Democrats.”

“I like those,” he adds.

Indeed he does. In a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost two-to-one, moderately conservative Republicans are the swing voters.

Some are shocked that Kansas is one of this year’s battlegrounds, not only in the governor’s race but also in the pivotal U.S. Senate contest between independent Greg Orman and incumbent Republican Pat Roberts. But one person who is not surprised is James Roberts (no relation to the senator), Davis’ 29-year-old campaign manager.

In January 2013, the young organizer paid me a visit in Washington to explain why Kansas could swing Democratic this year. Over lunch at a Mexican restaurant this week in Lawrence, I asked him how he knew this back then. “We’re a Kassebaum-Dole-Eisenhower state,” Roberts said, referring to two legendary Republican senators and the president from Abilene by way of stressing that Kansas is “a pragmatic, moderate state.”

“We’re not a state of radical experiments,” he said. “Anytime conservatism takes a back seat to raw ideology, Kansans rebuke that idea.”

If Republicans do as well nationwide next Tuesday as many expect, they should pay attention to the reaction unleashed here by Brownback, a former U.S. senator whom Davis regularly accuses of bringing “Washington, D.C.-style politics to Kansas,” which he equates with “hyperpartisan politics.”

Among those who came out to greet Davis here was David Toland, executive director of Thrive Allen County, a social service and economic development organization. He summarized why the decision here matters so much.

“If moderates are starting to push back against the extremism of the Republican Party in Kansas, I cannot believe they won’t be pushing back in other states,” Toland said. “This is a state with a strong conservative tradition that’s in open rebellion against the policies of its own party.”

Conservatism at its finest has been defined by a devotion to moderation. Next week, conservative Kansas may remind the nation that this is still true.

E.J. Dionne’s email address is ejdionne@washpost.com. Twitter: @EJDionne.

U.S. Senate Independent candidate Greg Orman, left, shakes hands with Sen. Pat Roberts following their debate at the KSN television studio Oct. 15, 2014 in Wichita, KS. (Fernando Salazar/Wichita Eagle/MCT)

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Could Latino Voters Decide Kansas’ Elections?

Could Latino Voters Decide Kansas’ Elections?

By Franco Ordonez, McClatchy Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — Kansas may not be considered Latino country, but the small, albeit growing, Hispanic community across the state is emerging as a potential threat to shake up the political landscape.

The state’s approximately 121,000 Latino voters make up just 6 percent of the electorate, but experts say they could make a difference in the tight races for governor, U.S. Senate and secretary of state.

Armando Minjarez, a 28-year-old Wichita artist and activist, has been talking up the need to vote with his neighborhood bread maker and knocking on doors at the homes of Latino registered voters in the heavily Hispanic-populated communities across western Kansas.

“Races are being won by 300 votes,” said Minjarez, who works on voter turnout drives with Kansas People’s Action and Women for Kansas, left-leaning groups that say they’re pushing for change in Kansas’ leadership. “So if those two, three hundred people I have talked to, if half of those go out and vote … if a third of them go out and vote … that’s a huge impact.”

If turnout is low, as expected, and Latinos mobilize, even a small percentage of them — like any other group — could alter the election, said Chapman Rackaway, a political science professor at Fort Hays State University in Kansas.

“A block of 10,000 votes by the Latino population could have a profound impact on the race,” Rackaway said.

Kansas is one of five states where the number of Latino voters exceeds the difference between the two leading Senate candidates in polling, according to an analysis by Latino Decisions, which conducts research and polls on Latino voting. And it’s one of nine states where Latino voters exceed the polling difference between leading gubernatorial candidates.

“Crazy, right?” said Gary Segura, a Stanford University political science professor who runs Latino Decisions. “Kansas is a state where Latinos could shape the outcome.”

After the 2010 election, no Democrat held an elected statewide office in Kansas. But Democrats now are within striking distance of the governor’s mansion. Gov. Sam Brownback, who has steered the state far to the right, has suffered in the polls.

U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts, a Republican who has made immigration a campaign issue, is suddenly in danger of losing to independent Greg Orman after the nominated Democrat in the race, Chad Taylor, dropped out.

On immigration, Roberts speaks almost exclusively about the need for stronger border patrol. Orman also speaks of the need for a stronger border, but he’s argued that 11 million immigrants who are already in the country illegally can’t be deported and, provided they pay a fine, he thinks they should be allowed to “get in line” for eventual U.S. citizenship.

Rackaway said Latinos also could be a factor in Democrats’ efforts to unseat Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who is known nationwide in the immigrant rights community for his controversial role in helping to draft some of the strongest immigration enforcement policies in Arizona and Alabama, among other states.

Latino turnout is a big question. Nationwide groups have complained that Latino voters who would otherwise vote Democratic have become disillusioned with the party since President Barack Obama decided to delay an executive order that would allow more undocumented immigrants to remain in the country legally. He had promised to issue the order by the end of the summer.

A Latino Decisions poll in June found that 54 percent of Latinos said they would be less interested in voting in the midterm elections if Obama decided not to take action on the executive order.

Speaking at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute gala last week, Obama tried to curtail some of those hurt feelings and said he would act on the order by the end of the year.

Photo: J. Stephen Conn via Flickr

In Kansas Senate Race, Pat Roberts Tries To Right His Campaign

In Kansas Senate Race, Pat Roberts Tries To Right His Campaign

By Michael A. Memoli, Tribune Washington Bureau

INDEPENDENCE, Kan. — In the suddenly and surprisingly tight Senate race in Kansas, one gets the distinct impression that the troubled campaign of Sen. Pat Roberts is still winging it — perhaps even right-winging it.

Wearing the purple colors of Kansas State University, former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin came to this town named after the Declaration of Independence to testify to the veteran lawmaker’s conservative bona fides in front of a standing-room-only crowd at a pancake breakfast.

Palin praised Roberts for joining Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign a year earlier against President Barack Obama’s health law, which culminated in a 16-day government shutdown. She said the American people “need to have fighters there in the Senate who will fight like our country’s future depends on it, because it does.”

Three days earlier and some 300 miles west in Dodge City, Roberts’ campaign reached out to another GOP icon who offered a very different take.

“Some of those guys are so far on the right they’re going to fall out of the Capitol,” warned former Sen. Bob Dole as he stood with Roberts before a crowd in a shopping mall atrium.

“The government was shut down, not by Pat … but by a guy named Sen. Cruz from Texas,” the 91-year-old former presidential nominee said. “There’s nothing wrong with compromise to get things done for Kansas and the rest of the nation.”

Roberts is leaning heavily on Republican stars like Palin and Dole as he tries to re-energize an election campaign that had all but lapsed two months ago. After he survived a tough primary challenge, Roberts falsely believed he would coast to victory in November. But as the contrasting political messages at his recent rallies show, Roberts’ revamped campaign is still struggling to find its footing.

“Pat’s campaign was a little slow getting off the blocks after the primary,” Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-KS) acknowledged. He “went dark and silent for a while and took it for granted. That’s changed now.”

As a three-term Republican senator facing a party now dominated by Tea Party ideologies, Roberts initially based his strategy on one goal: Let no opponent get to your right.

What he failed to predict was a viable challenge from his left, something that few would have thought possible in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

As Roberts scaled back his politicking after the August primary, wealthy businessman Greg Orman, running as an independent, blitzed local airwaves with advertisements touting himself as an antidote to hyper-partisanship. It didn’t help that some voters began to see Roberts as out of touch with the state after The New York Times reported in February that the home he lists as his residence in Kansas belongs to longtime donors. He lives most of the time in northern Virginia.

At the same time, the rift among the moderate and conservative wings of the Kansas GOP deepened in recent years.

Republican Gov. Sam Brownback’s embrace of a small-government policies, including pushing through a massive tax cut, backfired when some Kansans began to blame him for the state’s economic woes. Now, his re-election is in doubt too.

Former Republican Sen. Nancy Kassebaum, whom Roberts replaced in the Senate, criticized Roberts in the Kansas City Star for moving too far right, adding she had declined a request to appear in a campaign ad for him.

Roberts’ rightward lurch made his appearance with Dole last week all the more conspicuous. Two years ago, Roberts helped defeat an international treaty on disability rights that Dole had personally championed but that Tea Party conservatives opposed.

As Orman’s campaign began to catch fire, Chad Taylor, the Democratic candidate, withdrew from the race, consolidating the anti-Roberts vote and sounding alarm bells among national Republicans concerned that their best chance to regain control of the Senate in a decade could be spoiled in one of the nation’s reddest states.

Reinforcements from the national party are due to arrive this month, augmenting new campaign leadership that was installed last month, including Chris LaCivita, whose past work included producing ads for the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth operation that targeted John F. Kerry in 2004.

A new campaign manager, Corry Bliss, arrived last month to find the operation lacking basic staples — no yard signs, not even a working printer in the headquarters. Even as he and a revamped team immediately began laying the groundwork for the campaign to come, no polling was done to gauge the extent of the challenge ahead.

“They knew they were not doing well,” said Clay Barker, executive director of the Kansas Republican Party. “Why spend the money to simply reaffirm that?”

Roberts’ new strategy is based on two key calculations: first, that Kansans might be willing to put aside frustrations about Roberts to increase the chances that the Senate is controlled by Republicans in January; and second, that Orman’s attempts to float above the partisan fray won’t survive a sustained attack. Roberts’ new campaign leadership is aggressively questioning Orman’s ties to Rajat Gupta, a business partner now serving a prison term for insider trading.

Job one now seems to be locking down the GOP, winning back conservatives who had been reluctant to support him in the primary. And, just as he did before the primary, Roberts is offering lots of red meat. At half a dozen events across the state recently, he accused Obama of seeking to institute “national socialism” in the country, and called Sen. Harry Reid “a dictator.”

It wasn’t clear the message was resonating with Republicans. Shirley Degee, 53, who supported Roberts in the past, said it looked as if he had been seduced by the trappings of Washington. “He’s been having a good time in their private gym and their private restaurants and their limo rides,” she said.

Orman has been seeking to capitalize not only on the split among Republicans, but also the broader dissatisfaction with Washington.

“Politicians on both sides of the aisle are more interested in pleasing the special interests and the extremists in their own party than they are solving problems. And Roberts is emblematic of that,” he said in an interview. “He’s followed his party sharply to the right.”

Orman says that, if elected, he would caucus with whichever party is in the majority, since it would be in the best interests of Kansas. At a debate Wednesday, he said he would not support Mitch McConnell or Reid for majority leader in the next Congress.

But Republicans call that a ruse. “Let’s be honest: He’s a Democrat,” Arizona Sen. John McCain said at an event in a Republican field office in the Kansas City suburbs. “Why is it, very frankly, that this guy hasn’t been smoked out?”

Photo: J. Stephen Conn via Flickr

Midterm Roundup: Grimes Isn’t Done Yet In Kentucky

Midterm Roundup: Grimes Isn’t Done Yet In Kentucky

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Wednesday, October 1:

• Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes released an internal poll finding her 2 points ahead of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Although such polls should always be taken with a grain of salt — especially when they contradict public surveys (McConnell leads by 5.3 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll average) — it should be noted that pollster Mark Mellman has a history of outperforming the competition.

• In other Kentucky news, on Wednesday former president Bill Clinton made his first appearance in a Grimes campaign ad.

• Senator Pat Roberts’ (R-KS) political troubles keep mounting. A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll finds Independent candidate Greg Orman ahead of Roberts, 46 to 42 percent. Making matters worse for the three-term incumbent, The Hillreports that Kansas Tea Party groups are now threatening to sit the election out. Orman leads by 5.3 percent in the poll average.

• Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race is still a tossup. On Wednesday, a Marquette University Law School poll found incumbent Republican Scott Walker leading Democratic challenger Mary Burke among likely voters, 50 to 45 percent. He leads by just 1 point among registered voters. The poll comes one day after a Gravis Marketing survey showed Burke up 50 to 45 percent among registered voters. Walker leads by 1.8 percent in the poll average.

• And Republicans have uncovered another inconvenient case of voter fraud: Leslie Rutledge, the GOP candidate for attorney general in Arkansas, had her voter registration canceled after the Pulaski county clerk discovered that she is also registered to vote in Washington DC, and possibly Virginia.

Photo: Patrick Delahanty via Wikimedia Commons