Tag: nuclear deal
The Art Of The Deal: Why Putin Needs One More Than Trump

The Art Of The Deal: Why Putin Needs One More Than Trump

MOSCOW (Reuters) – In his book, Art of the Deal, Donald Trump said the best deals were ones where both sides got something they wanted. His credo, applied to a potential U.S.-Russia deal, flags an awkward truth for Vladimir Putin: He wants more from Trump than vice versa.

As aides try to set up a first meeting between the two presidents, the mismatched nature of their respective wish lists gives Trump the edge, and means that a deal, if one is done, may be more limited and longer in the making than the Kremlin hopes.

“What the two countries can offer each another is strikingly different,” said Konstantin von Eggert, a commentator for TV Rain, a Moscow TV station sometimes critical of the Kremlin.

“The U.S. has a stronger hand. In biblical terms, the U.S. is the three kings bearing gold, while Russia is the shepherds with little apart from their good faith.”

Appetite for a deal in Moscow, where parliament applauded Trump’s election win, is palpable. The Kremlin blames Barack Obama for wrecking U.S.-Russia ties, which slid to a post-Cold War low on his watch, and with the economy struggling to emerge from two years of recession, craves a new start.

Trump’s intentions toward Moscow are harder to discern, but seem to be more about what he does not want — having Russia as a time-consuming geopolitical foe — than his so far vague desire to team up with the Kremlin to fight Islamic State.

Trump has hinted he may also push for a nuclear arms deal.

Putin’s wish list, by contrast, is detailed, long and the items on it, such as getting U.S. sanctions imposed over Moscow’s actions in Ukraine eased, are potentially significant for his own political future.

He is looking to be given a free hand in the post-Soviet space, which he regards as Russia’s back yard.

Specifically, he would like Trump to formally or tacitly recognize Crimea, annexed from Ukraine in 2014, as Russian territory, and pressure Kiev into implementing a deal over eastern Ukraine which many Ukrainians view as unpalatable.

The icing on the cake for him would be for Trump to back a Moscow-brokered Syrian peace deal allowing President Bashar al-Assad, a staunch Moscow ally, to stay in power for now, while crushing Islamic State and delivering regional autonomy.

For Putin, described in leaked U.S. diplomatic cables as an “alpha-dog,” the wider prize would be respect. In his eyes, a deal would confer legitimacy and show Russia was a great power.

But, like a couple where one side is more interested than the other, the expectational imbalance is starting to show.

Trump spoke by phone to five world leaders before talking to Putin on Jan. 28 as part of a bundle of calls. The White House readout of the Putin call was vague and four sentences long; the Kremlin’s was effusive and fifteen sentences long.

Nor does Trump seem to be in a rush to meet. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said the two might only meet before a G20 summit due to take place in July.

Trump has good reason not to rush.

‘A HUGE BONUS’

With U.S. intelligence agencies accusing Moscow of having sponsored computer hacking to help Trump win office, a deal would hand fresh political ammunition to Trump’s opponents, who say he has long been too complimentary to the Russian leader.

A delay would have the added advantage of postponing a chorus of disapproval from foreign allies and Congress, where there is bipartisan determination to block sanctions relief.

For Putin though, in his 17th year of dominating the Russian political landscape, a deal, or even an early symbolic concession such as easing minor sanctions, matters.

Expected to contest a presidential election next year that could extend his time in the Kremlin to 2024, he needs sanctions relief to help lift the economy out of recession.

U.S. and EU financial sector sanctions have cut Russia’s access to Western capital markets and know-how, scared off foreign investors, and — coupled with low global oil prices — have exacerbated an economic crisis that has cut real incomes and fueled inflation, making life harder for millions.

Since Putin’s 2012 election, consumer prices have risen by 50 percent, while a fall in the value of the rouble against the dollar after the annexation of Crimea means average salaries fell by 36 percent from 2012-2016 in dollar terms.

Official data puts inflation at 5.4 percent, but consumers say the real figure is much higher, and fear of inflation regularly ranks among Russians’ greatest worries in surveys.

An easing of U.S. sanctions could spur more foreign investment, helping create a feel-good factor.

“It would be a huge bonus if it happened,” said Chris Weafer, senior partner at economic and political consultancy Macro-Advisory Ltd, who said he thought Putin wanted to put rebuilding the economy at the heart of his next term.

The economy matters to Putin because, in the absence of any more land grabs like Crimea, greater prosperity is one of the few levers he has to get voters to come out and support him.

With state TV affording him blanket and favorable coverage and with the liberal opposition still weak, few doubt Putin would genuinely win another presidential term if, as expected, he decided to run.

But for the win to be politically durable and for Putin to be able to confidently contemplate serving out another full six-year term, he would need to win big on a respectable turnout.

That, an election showed last year, is not a given.

Around 4 million fewer Russians voted for the pro-Putin United Russia party in a September parliamentary vote compared to 2011, the last time a similar election was held.

Although the economic benefits of a Trump deal might take a while to trickle down to voters, its symbolism could boost turnout, helping Putin prolong a system based on himself.

“It would be presented to the Russian people as a huge victory by Putin,” said von Eggert. “It would be described as a validation of his strategy to go to war in Ukraine regardless of the consequences and to turn the country into Fortress Russia.”

(Additional reporting by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Peter Graff)

IMAGE: A woman passes a billboard showing a pictures of US president-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Danilovgrad, Montenegro, November 16, 2016. REUTERS/Stevo Vasiljevic

As Improved US-Iran Relations Are Celebrated, Questions Loom About Road Ahead

As Improved US-Iran Relations Are Celebrated, Questions Loom About Road Ahead

By Tracy Wilkinson and Patrick J. McDonnell, Los Angeles Times (TNS)

WASHINGTON — Amid celebration of the milestone nuclear deal and the depature from Iran of three freed Americans, the Obama administration offered a reminder Sunday of the gulf that remains in the countries’ relations.

The U.S. placed new sanctions targeting 11 people or companies that work to advance Iran’s ballistic missile system, and President Barack Obama promised to “remain vigilant.”

That announcement came almost as an aside in an otherwise upbeat message but illustrated the continued strains in what is being hailed as a new relationship between enemies Iran and the United States.

Addressing their respective nations, Obama and his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, praised the nuclear deal as a victory for tough diplomacy between two governments that just a short time ago were not on speaking terms.

Obama said the deal, fully implemented on Saturday, makes the world safer, allows Iran to join the world by lifting key sanctions, and is already providing sidebar dividends: the release of five Americans who were being held in Iranian jails and were “finally coming home.”

Three of them touched U.S. territory Sunday, at an American military base at Ramstein, Germany. The Swiss jet carrying Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian and the others landed Sunday evening at the base, where the freed men will undergo medical checks.

Along with Rezaian, the other two were U.S. Marine veteran Amir Hekmati and Christian pastor Saeed Abedini. Also on board were Rezaian’s Iranian wife and his mother; locating them in Tehran on Saturday delayed the departure of the flight.

A fourth Iranian-American, Nosratollah Khosravi-Roodsari, about whom little is known, chose to stay in Iran, U.S. officials said, adding that it was his right to decide where to go. The fifth, student Matthew Trevithick, who was in Iran studying Farsi, left earlier.

With the exception of Trevithick, the prisoners were released in an exchange for seven Iranians who were jailed or facing trial in the U.S. They were charged with violating sanctions by attempting to illegally export prohibited items and will be granted clemency by Obama. They were on a much longer list the Iranians supplied but that was whittled down to include only those who hadn’t committed violent or terrorism-related crimes, U.S. officials said.

Obama said the nuclear deal, under which Iran has dismantled much of its nuclear arms capabilities and been rewarded by the easing of significant economic sanctions, serves as a reminder “of what we can achieve when we lead with strength and wisdom.”

And he told the Iranian people that they will be able to emerge from dark days of isolation. Iran will receive tens of billions of dollars in frozen assets as well as access to the international banking system and world markets for its oil and gas.

“We’ve now closed off every single path Iran had to building a (nuclear) bomb,” Obama said, speaking from the White House. “We’ve achieved this historic progress through diplomacy, without resorting to another war in the Middle East.”

In Tehran, before parliament, Rouhani lauded a “golden page” in the Islamic republic’s history that will be the beginning of economic recovery thanks to the injection of cash and trade.

“While we always remain ready to defend Iran, we bear the message of peace, stability and security for our region and the world,” he later tweeted.

Iranian officials are hopeful that the lifting of sanctions will help revive the nation’s economy, crippled by the sanctions in recent years, but the low price of oil means its immediate income will be lower than needed or expected.

Obama also announced the resolution of a long-standing claim Iran had brought in the Iran-U.S. Claims Tribunal in The Hague, the international court through which such demands were pursued.

Dating to shortly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran said it was owed $400 million for military equipment the deposed government was buying. In the resolution, the U.S. paid the $400 million plus $1.3 billion in interest, which was much less than what the Iranians had sought, Obama said.

Within the framework of the nuclear negotiations, a less hostile relationship developed between the U.S. and Iran following decades of acrimony, especially through the personal contacts of U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif. Many hope that can be translated into cooperation on other persistent conflicts in the region, such as the civil war in Syria.

American officials are also hopeful that the success of the nuclear deal will strengthen the hands of Rouhani and other likeminded moderate Iranians.

With Iran, the tone of its rhetoric “very much changed when Rouhani was elected,” an administration official said. “He had a mandate to engage the West on the nuclear issues.”

Yet it is clear that change comes slowly in Iran, and discord between the two countries remains deep.

On Sunday, hours after the nuclear deal, the Obama administration slapped new sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program in connection with alleged violations of United Nations resolutions last year. The sanctions had been prepared weeks ago but held up until the prisoners were freed.

The sanctions target “11 entities and individuals,” including a network based in the Middle East and China and another with suspected links to North Korea, as well as five Iranians who U.S. officials said had worked to secure ballistic weapon components for Iran.

“Iran’s ballistic missile program poses a significant threat to regional and global security, and it will continue to be subject to international sanctions,” Adam J. Szubin, Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a statement Sunday.

The sanctions include a freeze of any assets that these entities and individuals have in the U.S. financial system, as well as prohibitions on doing business with them.

The sanctions are separate from the sanctions against the nuclear program that were lifted this weekend. Iran launched ballistic missiles on two occasions last year in violation of the U.N. restrictions; Iran says it has a right to use the weapons.

Other U.S. sanctions that remain in place on Iran include those related to activities considered by Washington to be terrorism and violations of human rights. Obama and other U.S. officials insist they can revive other sanctions at any point if Iran is found to be in violation of nuclear restrictions or any other sanctionable activities.

In swapping the prisoners, the Obama administration has come under criticism among Republicans and others for appearing to exchange innocents for convicted criminals. But administration officials Sunday defended the swap, saying it was a one-time, unusual opportunity that they saw arise on the margins of the nuclear talks.

(Wilkinson reported from Washington and McDonnell from Beirut. Staff writer Don Lee in Washington contributed to this report.)

©2016 Los Angeles Times. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Photo: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani waves during a news conference in Tehran, Iran January 17, 2016. REUTERS/President.ir/Handout 

White House Shrugs Off Schumer’s Decision To Oppose Iran Deal

White House Shrugs Off Schumer’s Decision To Oppose Iran Deal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The decision by one of the top Democrats in the U.S. Senate to oppose the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers was “disappointing but not surprising,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Friday.

President Barack Obama’s hopes of preserving the nuclear deal were dealt a blow on Thursday when New York’s Charles Schumer came out against it even as the White House tried to draw attention to other lawmakers who are backing the agreement.

Earnest told reporters that the Obama administration worked closely with Schumer to explain details of the deal even before it was signed in an effort to gain his support.

“Ultimately, it didn’t turn out that way. I don’t think anybody was surprised,” Earnest said.

Obama is struggling to gain congressional backing for the deal, which lawmakers must vote on by Sept. 17. Schumer’s rejection means the Obama administration may have to ramp up its lobbying efforts on Capitol Hill.

Twelve members of the U.S. Congress, seven members in the House of Representatives, and five in the Senate, have publicly come out in support of the agreement in recent days, showing Obama had made a persuasive case, Earnest said.

The administration is confident they can continue to build support before next month’s deadline, he added.

(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir, Doina Chiacu and Jeff Mason; Editing by Susan Heavey)

Photo: Senate Democrats via Flickr

Kerry Mounts Furious Defense Of Iran Nuclear Deal

Kerry Mounts Furious Defense Of Iran Nuclear Deal

By Patricia Zengerle and Doina Chiacu

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry mounted a furious counterattack against critics of the Iran nuclear deal on Thursday, telling skeptical lawmakers that rejection of the accord would give Tehran “a great big green light” to swiftly accelerate its atomic program.

Testifying before Congress for the first time since Iran and world powers reached the deal last week, Kerry fought back against accusations by a senior Republican that America’s top diplomat was “fleeced” by Iranian negotiators in the final round of the Vienna talks.

He insisted that those who oppose the deal, which curbs Iran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief, are pushing an unrealistic alternative that he dismissed as a “sort of unicorn arrangement involving Iran’s complete capitulation.”

“The fact is that Iran now has extensive experience with nuclear fuel cycle technology,” Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “We can’t bomb that knowledge away. Nor can we sanction that knowledge away.”

Kerry said that if Congress turns thumbs down on the deal, “the result will be the United States of America walking away from every one of the restrictions we have achieved.”

“We will have squandered the best chance we have to solve this problem through peaceful means,” he said as Congress began a 60-day review of the deal to decide whether to support or reject it.

Opening the hearing, the committee’s Republican chairman, Bob Corker, offered scathing criticism of Kerry for the terms he secured in negotiating the deal. “Not unlike a hotel guest that leaves only with a hotel bathrobe on his back, I believe that you’ve been fleeced,” he said.

Corker chided Kerry and other administration officials for their line of argument that the only alternative to the Iran deal would be more war in the Middle East, saying that the real alternative would be a better deal.

U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the committee, said he has not yet decided how he would vote but said he felt U.S. negotiators had made significant progress.

“Our negotiators got an awful lot, particularly on the nuclear front,” Cardin said.

Under a bill President Barack Obama signed into law in May, Congress has until Sept. 17 to approve or reject the agreement.

Republicans control majorities in both houses of Congress. Many have come out strongly against the pact, which they say will empower Iran and threaten U.S. ally Israel.

Obama, who could gain a legacy boost from his diplomatic outreach to U.S. foe Iran, needs to convince as many of his fellow Democrats as possible to back the deal.

If a disapproval resolution passes Congress and survives a veto, Obama would be unable to waive most of the U.S. sanctions imposed on Iran, which could cripple the nuclear pact.

(Additional reporting by Idrees Ali and David Brunnstrom; Writing by Matt Spetalnick; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Photo: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry makes a statement to the media before a closed door briefing with House members on the recent Iran nuclear deal in Washington July 22, 2015. REUTERS/Gary Cameron