Tag: swing state
Gretchen Whitmer

Swing-State Democrats Keen For Battle Over Abortion Rights

If anyone is wondering whether Democrats in swing states view the Supreme Court draft opinion obliterating Roe v. Wade as an electoral asset, look no further than a sign-on letter from Democratic governors released Tuesday urging Congress to codify Roe into federal law.

Alongside the signatures from governors of progressive strongholds such as California, Washington, and New York were a handful of swing-state Democratic governors: Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Steve Sisolak of Nevada, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania, and Tony Evers of Wisconsin.

Of those five Democrats, three of them are incumbents running for reelection this cycle, including Whitmer, Sisolak, and Evers.

"I'm proud to join my fellow governors and call on Congress to immediately put protections offered by Roe v. Wade into federal law," Gov. Whitmer tweeted.

Whitmer also released a video calling on the Michigan Supreme Court to "immediately" resolve whether the state constitution protects abortion rights. The governor filed a lawsuit in April seeking to overturn a 1931 state law banning abortion that could become enforceable if Roe is struck down.

"In light of recent news," Whitmer explained, Roe could be overturned "any day now."

"I want every Michigander to know, that no matter what happens in [Washington,] D.C., I'm going to fight like hell to protect access to safe, legal abortion," she said.


Michigan is a split state, with a Democratic executive branch and a GOP-led state legislature. However, the state's new legislative maps, drawn by an independent commission, give Democrats at least a fighting chance to flip the upper chamber while chipping away at GOP majorities in the lower chamber.

But it's not just a battleground like Michigan where Democrats are going all-in on abortion. One state to the south, Ohio Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan quickly took up abortion in his bid for the state's open Senate seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman.

The stakes for the race "have never been higher," Ryan said, following news of the draft opinion overturning Roe.

"Every single one of my GOP opponents supports extreme, restrictive anti-abortion laws. We cannot let them near the Senate," Ryan tweeted. "Our only choice to protect abortion is to flip this seat blue and expand our Democratic Senate majority.

Tuesday was also primary day in the Buckeye State, where Ryan prevailed on the Democratic side, while venture capitalist and Trump endorsee JD Vance emerged from a seven-person scrum on the Republican side.

But Ryan's rapid focus on abortion was particularly telling given that he had released an ad one day prior disavowing culture war issues in the race. Abortion is an issue on which he and other Democrats are eager to fight, while Senate Republicans in Washington spent Tuesday ducking for cover.

Swing-state Democrats' urgency on protecting abortion rights is a reflection of the fact that roughly 55% to 70% of Americans oppose the Supreme Court overturning Roe. But what really makes the Roe revelation explosive is the fact that only about 20% of the public (or even less) considered the landmark 1973 ruling’s downfall to be a possibility.

For decades, Democrats have found it challenging to really rally Americans around the cause of preserving abortion rights because most of them considered it settled law.

But what Mitch McConnell's extremist court has now made patently clear is the fact that nothing is settled law, nothing is sacrosanct, and nothing is off the table regardless of how old the precedent or its overwhelming public support.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Supreme Court Abortion Ruling May Threaten DeSantis Reelection Prospects

Supreme Court Abortion Ruling May Threaten DeSantis Reelection Prospects

When Palm Beach County District Attorney Dave Aronberg appeared on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Thursday, January 13, the South Florida Democrat wasn’t bullish on his party’s chances of unseating Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida’s 2022 gubernatorial election. But there was a major caveat: Aronberg believes that if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade this summer, that could derail DeSantis’ chances of winning a second term.

“He is in great shape to win his reelection because he is going to have like $100 million in campaign funds,” the prosecutor told Morning Joe hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski. “He has become a national MAGA figure, and he is getting tons of money from outside the state. And we have three Democrats running for governor right now, and they’re not raising nearly the money DeSantis is. But in the end, Florida is somewhat of a swing state.”

Aronberg, a frequent critic of Florida’s far-right governor, added that how the high court rules on Roe v. Wade could pull the rug out from under DeSantis. If Roe v. Wade is overturned later this year, Aronberg argued, DeSantis’ anti-abortion views could work against him in November and fire up pro-choice voters in the Sunshine State — which, Aronberg stressed, is not a deep red state like Mississippi.

“If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, they’ll do so in the summer right before his reelection,” Aronberg told Scarborough and Brzezinski. “DeSantis just came out and said he would support a Mississippi-style abortion bill. Well, that may work in Mississippi and other southern states, but Florida is different. That’s the kind of thing that shows he’s out of touch with Floridians and could jeopardize, what seems to many, a certain reelection.”

Conservative strategist Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Never Trumper, has described Florida as a swing state where Democrats “struggle” in statewide elections and have a hard time getting past the finish line.

When DeSantis defeated former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, a liberal/progressive Democrat, in Florida’s 2018 gubernatorial election, he did so by less than one percent. Then in 2020, now-President Joe Biden lost Florida to then-President Donald Trump by around three percent (compared to 26 percent in Alabama or 16 percent in Mississippi). ‘

Article reprinted with permission from Alternet

suburban vote, democrat

Shifting Suburban Vote May Help Democrats Win Swing States

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

Political strategists divide U.S. voters geographically into three main categories: (1) urbanites, (2) rural voters, and (3) suburbanites. Urbanites lean reliably Democrat, while rural voters are a crucial part of the Republican base — and suburbia is full of swing voters. Reporter Zack Stanton, in an article published in Politico this week, discusses the Democratic Party's pursuit of female suburban voters and why "the 2020 election is the story of suburban women."

"What demographers are noticing is that America's suburbs are growing and becoming more diverse," Stanton explains. "And that is contributing to a massive political shift that is remaking the electoral map in lasting ways."

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Changes To North Carolina Voting Laws Could Put Thousands Of 2016 Ballots At Risk

Changes To North Carolina Voting Laws Could Put Thousands Of 2016 Ballots At Risk

By Julia Harte

RALEIGH, North Carolina (Reuters) – On Election Day in 2014, Joetta Teal went to work at a polling station in Lumberton, North Carolina. Like all poll workers, she was required to stay untilvoting booths closed, so she decided to cast her own vote there.

That was a mistake, she later discovered. What she didn’t know was that under a 2013 state law she had to vote in the precinct where she lived. The polling station where she voted was not in her precinct, so her vote was not counted.

A Reuters review of Republican-backed changes to North Carolina’s voting rules indicates as many as 29,000 votes might not be counted in this year’s Nov. 8 presidential election if a federal appeals court upholds the 2013 law. Besides banning voters from voting outside their assigned precinct on Election Day, the law also prevents them from registering the same day they vote during the early voting period.

The U.S. Justice Department says the law was designed to disproportionately affect minority groups, who are more likely to vote out of precinct and use same-day registration. Backers of the law deny this and say it will prevent voter fraud.

The battleground state has a recent history of close races that have hinged on just a few thousand votes. Barack Obama, a Democrat, won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes in 2008. In 2012, Mitt Romney, a Republican, narrowly carried the state by a margin of just 2.04 percent.

Reuters reviewed state election board data showing the number of North Carolinians who made use of out-of-precinct voting and same-day registration in previous elections, including March’s state nominating contest, or primary, when voters nominated their preferred presidential candidate.

The Reuters analysis includes some assumptions. For 29,000 votes to go uncounted on Nov. 8, North Carolinians would need to vote in the same numbers and in the same ways they have in previous elections, including the March primary.

In that primary, after a court temporarily ordered a stay on the bans, 6,387 North Carolinians voted out of their assigned precinct and 22,501 registered the same day they voted.

The North Carolina Board of Elections did not respond to requests for comment on Reuters’ findings.

North Carolina Senator Bob Rucho, a Republican who backed the law, declined to comment specifically on the findings but disputed the notion that the law suppressed votes, saying the increased turnout between the 2010 and 2014 elections shows it has not had a disparate impact on minority voters.

“How can it show voter suppression when more black voters voted and more white voters voted, and there was more opportunity, and there are more black voters registered than there were before?”

Turnout between those elections did rise by 1.8 percentage points for black voters and by 1.1 percentage points for white voters, according to data the state election board entered as evidence in court.

Advocacy group Democracy North Carolina, however, said their poll monitors saw many people attempting to vote out of precinct in 2014 who were told by officials their ballots would not count, and as a result cast no vote. And it says 23,500 voters would have used same-day registration to vote in 2014 if it had not been banned, basing its findings on a review of election board data, hundreds of hotline calls, and the observations of more than 300 poll monitors.

North Carolina Board of Elections executive director Kim Strach said her office looked into claims of voters being turned away “but generally did not find statewide evidence of it.”

LEGAL CHALLENGES

The Fourth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which is considering legal challenges to the law from the Justice Department and civil rights groups and citizens, is expected to issue a ruling in the next few weeks.

North Carolina’s Senate passed its new voting laws weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court voted 5 to 4 in June 2013 to eliminate a requirement that nine states mostly in the South with a history of discrimination, including North Carolina, receive federal approval before changing election laws.

The Justice Department alleged a “race-based purpose” to the new law in a legal brief. Studies the department cited show that minority and low-income voters are more likely to use same-day registration and out-of-precinct voting because they are less likely to own a car or have flexible working hours. These voters are also more likely to vote for Democratic candidates.

“If you pick out precisely the way minority voters are engaging with the process, that’s intentionally treating minority voters differently,” Justin Levitt, the head of the Justice Department’svoting unit, said in an interview.

North Carolina state officials say the changes cut fraud by making it harder for people to cast multiple ballots or impersonate other voters.  The Justice Department said in court documents that voter fraud was “virtually non-existent” in the state.

Rucho, the state senator, said while the law banned some voting methods and cut the early votingperiod from 17 to 10 days, it extended the hours during which voters could vote.

“We opened up more locations for them to vote, more times to vote, more flexible times,” said Rucho.

FOUR-PERSON TEAM

Teal, who is African American, was one of 14 North Carolina voters Reuters contacted whose votes were invalid in 2014 because of the law.

Ten of them, including Teal, did not realize their votes were not counted until informed by Reuters. One was told his vote would not count by a voter advocacy group, and the other three were told by poll workers that their ballots likely would not count.

In all, 1,390 ballots were rejected in the 2014 election because they were cast out of the voter’s assigned precinct — up from 49 rejected for the same reason in 2010, according to the Reuters review of provisional ballots.

“If they could have just sent people letters and told them exactly where to go, that would have been helpful,” Teal said. The North Carolina Board of Elections website has a tool for residents to look up their assigned precincts, but Teal did not know about it.

This year she plans to vote early.

In other developed democracies, “the government takes a greater responsibility for ensuring that voter registration lists are kept up to date and accurate,” said Tova Wang, senior fellow at the policy research group Demos.

The election board has been trying to educate North Carolinians about the ban on out-of-precinctvoting through ads and a four-person voter outreach team that travels around the state to raise awareness about the changes, said Strach, the board’s director.

“We’re telling people, go find out where you are, make sure you’re showing up at the right precinct,” Strach said.

(Editing by Jason Szep and Ross Colvin)

Photo: An election worker checks a voter’s drivers license as North Carolina’s controversial “Voter ID” law goes into effect for the state’s presidential primary election at a polling place in Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S. on March 15, 2016. REUTERS/Chris Keane/File Photo