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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

The Republican frontrunner is experiencing unexpectedly heavy resistance as the weeks run down to the Republican National Convention. Just a month ago, the Republican establishment was increasingly resigned to the likelihood that Donald Trump was going to be their party’s nominee. Now, new polling trends show he might not be as electorally invincible as originally expected.

The Trump campaign was hit from multiple sides this week in what was an unprecedented groundswell of anger from the electorate. Multiple polls show that Trump is historically unpopular — around 67 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of him.

Polls show Trump 10 points behind Ted Cruz in Wisconsin, a recent development, and throughout this past week his campaign has had to deal with the fallout from his birdbrained abortion remarks and charges of battery against campaign manager, Corey Lewandoski.

A loss in Wisconsin, which has 42 delegates at stake in a “winner-take-most” primary, would force Trump to win around 60 percent of all remaining delegates to reach the 1,237 votes needed to secure the nomination. Politico reports that Trump seriously risks delegate flight if he fails to win the nomination outright, suggesting that many of his pledged delegates are voting for him against their will.

“I do know the nature of the delegates. The majority of them, they’re conservatives but they’re party regulars — County chairmen, state regulars, local sheriffs,” said Charlie Black, a veteran convention operative who is advising John Kasich’s campaign.

For his part, Trump said that there would be riots in Cleveland if a brokered convention ended with someone else becoming the Republican nominee. “If we’re 20 votes short or if we’re 100 short and we’re at 1,100 and somebody else is at 500 or 400 because we’re way ahead of everybody, I don’t think you can say that we don’t get it automatically,” he said. “I think you would have riots. I think you would have riots.”

Should Trump end up his party’s nominee, he’s not in for an easy ride to the White House: A new poll from Democracy Works shows a large increase in politically-engaged Democratic voters, likely a response to Trump’s rise, as well as an incredibly large increase in the number of women, especially white working class women, opposed to him. Suffice it to say: Trump may survive the crucible of the Republican presidential nomination process, but he’ll come out the other side one of the weakest general election candidates ever.

 

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