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One of the nation's most reliably GOP-leaning pollsters on Wednesday released the results of its first weekly poll for the 2020 presidential election. They showed Joe Biden leading Donald Trump.

The Rasmussen Reports survey of 5,000 "likely voters," conducted July 5-7, found that 50 percent support Joe Biden, 40 percent support Donald Trump, and 6 percent are undecided.


Among Republicans, Trump had just 74 percent support, compared to 79 percent support for Biden among Democrats. Trump has often claimed to have a 95 percent approval rating among members of his party.

Polling analysts have noted that Rasmussen has had a distinctly pro-Republican bias.

"For Rasmussen ... the Republican lean in its polls ran pretty much wire to wire," wrote Nate Silver on his website FiveThirtyEight after the 2016 election. "It had a significant Republican house effect early in the election cycle and a significant Republican house effect late in the election, and it would up turning into a significant Republican bias on Election Day."

Ipsos Public Affairs research director Mallory Newall told Hill.TV in 2018 that the way Rasmussen adjusts its data, based on party identification, tends "to be more along the partisan angle, leaning toward the Republicans."

Trump himself has repeatedly praised Rasmussen as "accurate." In a tweet in April 2018, he thanked Rasmussen for its "honest polling" after the firm showed him with a 50 percent approval rating.

Last month, Trump threatened to sue CNN after it released a national poll showing Biden with a 14-point lead among registered voters.

He baselessly tweeted that the network's polls "are as Fake as their Reporting," and his campaign claimed the numbers were "designed to mislead American voters through a biased questionnaire and skewed sampling."

CNN stood by its polling.

Trump claimed last week that he is "getting VERY GOOD internal Polling Numbers" but has not released them.

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to an inquiry for this story.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.


Jeff Danziger lives in New York City. He is represented by CWS Syndicate and the Washington Post Writers Group. He is the recipient of the Herblock Prize and the Thomas Nast (Landau) Prize. He served in the US Army in Vietnam and was awarded the Bronze Star and the Air Medal. He has published eleven books of cartoons and one novel. Visit him at DanzigerCartoons.