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How To Fix An Unfair Presidential Debate System

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How To Fix An Unfair Presidential Debate System

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GOP, Presidential Race, 2016, Nominee, Candidates, Debates, Politcs, Top News, Swing State, Primaries

By Stuart Rothenberg, CQ-Roll Call (TNS)

WASHINGTON — Fox News and CNN, which will broadcast the first two GOP presidential debates, have decided on a system for excluding candidates that could result in Donald Trump participating in those debates but current or former senators and governors being excluded.

Nice going, guys.

I certainly agree having a debate with 16 candidates is simply unwatchable, and there is no easy way to make the early debates fair to the candidates while at the same time more watchable and informative for viewers. But Fox and CNN have both dropped the ball as they try to avoid making tough decisions.

At the first debate on August sixth in Cleveland, Fox will limit participation to candidates who “place in the top ten in an average of the five most recent national polls in the run-up to the event.” Fox apparently will “provide additional coverage and air time on August sixth to the candidates who do not place in the top ten.”

CNN has chosen a similar-but-not-identical approach that is also based on polling leading up to the debate. It will hold two separate forums, one for the top-tier hopefuls and a second for the also-rans.

Fox and CNN, along with the Republican National Committee, can (and surely will) argue they are not excluding candidates from the first debate, the public is. And I’m sure they will say that with a straight face.

Even debate veterans privately admit ten participants are too many. Most of the early GOP debates last time, from August to November 2011, included only eight candidates, and that was bad enough.

But ten is a nice round number, and it allows Fox and CNN to claim they have found a reasonable balance between having too many hopefuls and arbitrarily excluding some. It’s a classic cover-your-behind strategy.

But limiting the field to ten participants means as many as six hopefuls could be excluded from the meaningful debates. Sure, CNN will have a loser’s bracket, but much like the NIT basketball tournament, nobody will care. Being the best of the losers isn’t exactly a winning outcome.

The two networks could end up excluding the only woman in the Republican field (businesswoman Carly Fiorina), the only African-American in the field (Ben Carson), or the only other candidate of color in the race (Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal). For a party that needs to remake its image, excluding candidates who are not white men is a novel strategy.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul would all appear to have guaranteed slots in the debate. That leaves room for five others. Who could be excluded?

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is the last Republican to have won the Iowa caucuses, but he could be excluded. The same goes for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who won those caucuses in 2008.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham is about to announce his candidacy, but he doesn’t yet have a campaign. He could be on the outside looking in, even though he is a sitting senator from the second primary state. Not only that, but Graham has become one of his party’s leading voices on national security issues. Oh well, who cares about those issues anyway?

Ohio Governor John Kasich appears poised to enter the race, but also has no real campaign yet. He may not be able to ramp up quickly enough to make the top ten cut. But the first debate is in Cleveland, which, the last time I looked, is still in Ohio. And Ohio remains one of the key states in 2016. Oh, what the heck, he’s only the governor.

The rest of the field includes former Texas Governor Rick Perry, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former New York Governor George Pataki and the aforementioned Trump.

Right now, Trump would make the cutoff, and because of his celebrity status he might very well meet the criteria later this year when the first two debate fields are set. Yet, I think we all know Trump is a carnival barker, not a credible contender for the Republican presidential nomination.

Clearly, any effort to limit the field will generate complaints and criticism. But any approach that limits the field so early in the race, at least five months before the first contest involving voters, seems inherently unfair. And using national polls to select participants in early debates seems odd when the first few actual tests of strength involve small, retail politics states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

After all, we are talking about the first debate or the first couple of debates, not the fifth. Each candidate can rightly argue he or she deserves to be in the first few debates, since those televised events will be the first time many Republican voters will have the opportunity to evaluate and compare the candidates.

The obvious answer is to divide the field in half, randomly assigning individual hopefuls to one of the two debates. Of course, not everyone will like the group he or she is in, and the makeup of each group would determine the particular dynamic of that debate.

After a couple of debates, the hosts of additional debates will have just cause to limit the number of debaters. But doing so in the first couple of debates is inherently unfair and could end up damaging the party’s image. You’d think that that would be something the RNC would want to avoid.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

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10 Comments

  1. Sand_Cat May 28, 2015

    I have to disagree – at least partially – with the statement made about the 2012 GOP debates: eight candidates wouldn’t be so bad if any of them had anything to say that was worth hearing.
    Any number of the newest bunch of idiots is WAY too many. The current crop of candidates is a disgrace unworthy of a great nation.

    Reply
  2. Dominick Vila May 29, 2015

    I am not a fan of FOX, or even CNN, but in all fairness to them, the problem is not due by their decision to limit the number of participants in each debate, but the fact that more and more Republicans are entering the race because they are convinced that none of those who have already declared their intention to run are electable.
    Holding two separate debates to accommodate the interminable list of GOP candidates is bound to harm the “also ran” in the second debate, but I am not sure that dividing them in two teams would not have the same effect. The solution rests more on the maturity of the candidates, than decisions by the media. By the end of Summer, we should all know which candidates have a chance to win the GOP nomination next year, and which ones should throw in the towel and wait for 2020. Making fools of themselves, to satisfy their egos, is not going to help them this time or in future elections.

    Reply
    1. bcarreiro May 29, 2015

      Maybe Bert and Ernie could moderate the debate….. at least it would be worth watching.

      1. Independent1 May 29, 2015

        That sounds like a great idea!! Especially considering that all these Republican wannabees are nothing but “corporate puppets”!!

    2. Whatmeworry May 29, 2015

      Fox is nuttin but lies from the repooblikans

  3. booker25 May 29, 2015

    I say you have to be a declared candidate, so far they don’t have ten.

    Reply
    1. Whatmeworry May 29, 2015

      God I hope its not a republican

  4. Whatmeworry May 29, 2015

    1 thing is certain CNN will not be allowed to host a debate between the 2 parties after 2012 debacle. The GOP will only agree if Fox is also hosting a debate

    Reply
    1. Daniel Max Ketter May 30, 2015

      I quit listening to CNN since they are becoming too conservative. Al Jerez is really our best source of factual information.

  5. Whatmeworry May 29, 2015

    1 thing is certain CNN will be allowed to host a debate between the 2 parties after 2012
    debacle. The GOP will not agree if Fox is also hosting a debate

    Reply

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