As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of July 13:
Colorado
Colorado’s Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Udall and Republican congressman Cory Gardner remains among the closest in the nation.
According to a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday, Gardner leads Udall 44 to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided. That’s within the poll’s +/- 2.9 percent margin of error.
The survey is filled with troubling news for Udall. His approval rating is just 42 percent, with 46 percent disapproving; this is his lowest approval ever in a Quinnipiac poll. 49 percent of voters told Quinnipiac that Udall does not deserve to re-elected, while 40 percent say he does (also an all-time low). And Colorado voters disapprove of President Barack Obama 58 to 39 percent, which will likely hurt Udall’s ability to persuade undecided voters to support him.
An NBC News-Marist poll released earlier in the week found a different situation; it shows Udall leading Gardner by 7 points, 48 to 41 percent. According to that survey, voters view Udall favorably by a 42 to 36 percent margin.
The NBC News-Marist poll is an outlier, however; most other surveys have shown results much closer to Quinnipiac’s. According to the Real Clear Politicspoll average, Udall leads Gardner by just 1 percent.
Iowa
NBC News-Marist also surveyed Iowa’s Senate race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley and Republican state senator Joni Ernst, and found it to be a virtual toss-up. According to the poll, Braley and Ernst are tied at 43 percent, with 14 percent undecided. The poll has a +/- 2.5 percent margin of error.
Like Senator Udall in Colorado, Congressman Braley must find a way to overcome President Obama’s unpopularity. Just 21 percent of Iowa voters approve of Obama’s job performance, while an overwhelming 64 percent disapprove.
The Real Clear Politics poll average paints a similar picture of the race; it shows Ernst ahead by less than 1 percent.
Georgia
U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston is on track to defeat businessman David Perdue in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary runoff, according to the latest survey.
The poll, from InsiderAdvantage, Fox 5 Atlanta, and Morris News Service, finds Kingston ahead by a 46 to 41 percent margin; 13 percent remain undecided.
Perdue placed first in the May 20 primary, but Kingston has risen in the polls since then (with the help of some brutal attack ads). Kingston — who has diligently run to the right throughout the race, and recently mused about impeaching President Obama — is now the choice of 53 percent of self-identified Republicans (those who describe themselves as “independent” favor Perdue by 7 percent).
Although Kingston leads in the polls, the June 22 runoff could still go either way given the expected low turnout.
Michigan
Congressman Gary Peters (D) appears to be pulling away from former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land (R) in Michigan’s Senate race.
The latest poll, from EPIC-MRA, finds Peters leading Land 45 to 36 percent. That’s up 3 points from the EPIC-MRA’s previous poll, in May.
Peters is now ahead by 5.8 percent in the poll average, and it’s now been three months since a public poll has found Land in the lead.
Things could be getting even worse for Land, who is facing questions over her finances. Land has given nearly $3 million to her own campaign — despite listing only about $1.5 million in assets on financial disclosure forms. Land claims that she “inadvertently” omitted a joint checking account that she has with her husband on her 2013 form, and listed it as solely his account in 2014. Nonetheless, Democrats are already accusing her of “secretly funneling millions” of dollars into her campaign to “try and buy this election.”
Photo: Mark Udall via Flickr
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