Pundits Claim Abortion Issue Has Faded -- But Data Shows They're Wrong
When the GOP-packed Supreme Court first overturned Roe v. Wade in June, Republican politicians and operatives developed a standard talking point: By November, the economy will be the overriding issue in the midterms.
After beating that drum for months, sure enough, it crept into conventional wisdom. For the last month, a wide swath of pundits and analysts alike—mostly male—have taken the GOP talking point as gospel. Their proof often starts with a certain bias which is then confirmed by issue polling in which economy/inflation usually rises to the top.
But just because most people often flag the economy as a top issue, it does not mean abortion and reproductive freedom have lost resonance for a wide swath of the electorate.
In Michigan, a Detroit News/Glengariff poll conducted October 26-28 found that while more independent voters said inflation was the most important issue facing Michigan, slightly more independents also tagged abortion as the issue most motivating them to vote.
Independent Voters
What is the most important issue facing Michigan?
- 40 percent Inflation
- 31 percent abortion
Which issue is most motivating you to go to the polls?
- 35 percent abortion
- 34 percent inflation
Among all female voters, abortion was the primary driver motivating them to vote, reported ClickonDetroit.com. Overall, 43.5 percent of female voters said they care most about abortion and women’s rights issues, while just 24.6 percent of male voters did.
In Pennsylvania, the latest Fox News poll found that, far from fading, intensity around abortion had actually increased more than on any other issue in the state's critical Senate race.
WHICH ISSUE IS MOST IMPORTANT TO YOUR SENATE VOTE
| OCT. 26-30 | JULY 22-26 | |
|---|---|---|
| INFLATION | 33% | 27% |
| ABORTION | 24% | 14% |
| ELECTION INTEGRITY/VOTING RIGHTS | 11% | 11% |
| CRIME | 6% | 4% |
The final pre-election poll from Daily Kos/Civiqs showed that abortion remained the top motivating issue for Democratic voters across the country, with 52% of Democrats saying it would be the most important issue driving their vote.
VOTERS TOP FOUR ISSUES (DAILY KOS/CIVIQS POLL)
| TOTAL | DEMOCRAT | REPUBLICAN | INDEPENDENT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECONOMY/JOBS/INFLATION | 58% | 38% | 83% | 60% |
| FAIR ELECTIONS/DEMOCRACY | 34% | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| IMMIGRATION | 32% | 19% | 60% | 30% |
| ABORTION | 31% | 52% | 14% | 24% |
All of these data points back up early October findings from the Kaiser health tracking poll indicating that fully 50 percent of voters now say the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe has made them more motivated to vote—up from 43 percent who said the same in July and a 13-point bump since news of the opinion first leaked in May.
Plenty of recent polling has indicated that reports of the abortion issue’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. Perhaps the pundits claiming abortion has faded just aren’t that good at reading the polls.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.
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