According to a new aggregation of polls by The Huffington Post this week, the GOP will have a difficult time keeping its control of the Senate in the upcoming election cycle. HuffPost’s Senate model shows a 55 percent chance that Senate control will flip to Democrats.
HuffPost also indicates a 23 percent chance that the race may end up in tie, with 50 Senate seats for each party.
After the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans took the Senate with 54 seats to the Democrat’s 46. This year, however, fewer Democratic seats are up for a vote: a total of 36 Democrats will stay put. Only 30 Republican seats aren’t up for re-election, but that, coupled with the negative effect Donald Trump is having on the entire Republican ticket, makes it more likely that the GOP will lose control of the Senate.
If the chamber is split, the vice president will cast tie-breaking votes, which would mean Democrats could take control if Hillary Clinton wins. Most national polls give the Democratic nominee an substantial edge over Trump.
The HuffPost model aggregates several polls to approximate new information. Some states, like Alabama and Arkansas, will likely to go Republicans, while others, like Hawaii and Connecticut, will remain Democratic. Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania show potentially closer races.
Read more about the HuffPost Senate model here.