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According to a new aggregation of polls by The Huffington Post this week, the GOP will have a difficult time keeping its control of the Senate in the upcoming election cycle. HuffPost’s Senate model shows a 55 percent chance that Senate control will flip to Democrats.

HuffPost also indicates a 23 percent chance that the race may end up in tie, with 50 Senate seats for each party.

After the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans took the Senate with 54 seats to the Democrat’s 46. This year, however, fewer Democratic seats are up for a vote: a total of 36 Democrats will stay put. Only 30 Republican seats aren’t up for re-election, but that, coupled with the negative effect Donald Trump is having on the entire Republican ticket, makes it more likely that the GOP will lose control of the Senate.

If the chamber is split, the vice president will cast tie-breaking votes, which would mean Democrats could take control if Hillary Clinton wins. Most national polls give the Democratic nominee an substantial edge over Trump.

The HuffPost model aggregates several polls to approximate new information. Some states, like Alabama and Arkansas, will likely to go Republicans, while others, like Hawaii and Connecticut, will remain Democratic. Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania show potentially closer races.

Read more about the HuffPost Senate model here.

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Dr. Mehmet Oz and Sean Hannity

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Fox News prime-time host Sean Hannity is priming his audience to see election fraud in any defeat for Dr. Mehmet Oz, his favored candidate who currently leads the GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania with two percent of votes outstanding. If the fast-closing hedge funder Dave McCormick takes the lead and the Oz camp claims the election has been stolen, it could set up a potentially explosive proxy war with Hannity’s colleague Laura Ingraham, whose Fox program favors McCormick and has suggested he is likely to prevail when all the votes are counted.

The GOP primary was a chaotic slugfest that split Fox’s slate of pro-GOP hosts in an unusually public way. Hannity was Oz’s most prominent supporter, reportedly securing the support of former President Donald Trump and using his program to endorse the TV personality, give him a regular platform, and target the challenge from right-wing commentator and Fox & Friends regular Kathy Barnette. Ingraham, meanwhile, used her Fox program (which airs in the hour following Hannity’s) to promote McCormick, criticize Oz, and defend Barnette.

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Overturning Roe v. Wade is very unpopular, yet another poll confirms. Nearly two out of three people, or 64 percent, told the NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll that Roe should not be overturned, including 62 percent of independents. The poll also includes some good news for Democrats.

According to the poll, the prospect of the Supreme Court striking down Roe in the most extreme way is motivating Democratic voters more than Republicans: Sixty-six percent of Democrats say it makes them more likely to vote in November compared with 40 percent of Republicans. That echoes a recent NBC poll finding a larger rise in enthusiasm about voting among Democrats than Republicans.

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