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Republicans Will Likely Lose Senate Control: Poll Aggregation

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Republicans Will Likely Lose Senate Control: Poll Aggregation

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According to a new aggregation of polls by The Huffington Post this week, the GOP will have a difficult time keeping its control of the Senate in the upcoming election cycle. HuffPost’s Senate model shows a 55 percent chance that Senate control will flip to Democrats.

HuffPost also indicates a 23 percent chance that the race may end up in tie, with 50 Senate seats for each party.

After the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans took the Senate with 54 seats to the Democrat’s 46. This year, however, fewer Democratic seats are up for a vote: a total of 36 Democrats will stay put. Only 30 Republican seats aren’t up for re-election, but that, coupled with the negative effect Donald Trump is having on the entire Republican ticket, makes it more likely that the GOP will lose control of the Senate.

If the chamber is split, the vice president will cast tie-breaking votes, which would mean Democrats could take control if Hillary Clinton wins. Most national polls give the Democratic nominee an substantial edge over Trump.

The HuffPost model aggregates several polls to approximate new information. Some states, like Alabama and Arkansas, will likely to go Republicans, while others, like Hawaii and Connecticut, will remain Democratic. Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania show potentially closer races.

Read more about the HuffPost Senate model here.

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9 Comments

  1. Lynda Groom August 23, 2016

    Sounds like a wonderful outcome, however never count your chickens before the vote.

    Reply
  2. FireBaron August 23, 2016

    How wonderful it would be if the Senate Republicans convinced Mitch McConnell to retire as a result of his failure to keep the majority. Of course, that means his rival, Matt Bevins, will get to appoint a successor for the next term, or call for a special election.

    Reply
  3. plc97477 August 23, 2016

    Taking the senate will not do us much good unless we have a filibuster proof one. We do know that the repugs really enjoy filibustering.

    Reply
  4. yabbed August 23, 2016

    Democrats need to take advantage of the nonsensical crazy talk campaign of that buffoon the GOP has nominated for the Presidency. Democrats should challenge every Republican Senate and House seat. Hillary Clinton is going to have very broad coattails and we should do everything possible to defeat as many GOPers as possible.

    Reply
  5. Jim Samaras August 23, 2016

    I say throw every incumbent out be it a democrat or republican! Start over with fresh faces and ideas

    Reply
    1. Paul Bass August 23, 2016

      Would you go to a Cardiologist who never has practiced Medicine?

      Why would you think politicians would be improved with no experience?

      1. Jim Samaras August 23, 2016

        Maybe, just maybe they’ll have their constituencies best interests at heart instead of having their own greedy agenda. If not throw them out in 4

        1. Paul Bass August 23, 2016

          Now you see!
          The new set will be just as greedy. (Terms limits have NOT helped in TX!!!)
          Just vote ‘OUT the bad ones in 4’ years, keep the good ones. And don’t believe the lies from the opposite party.

  6. ralphkr August 23, 2016

    All of these polls & headlines declaring the Democrats winning frightened me. They remind me of the Dewey defeats Truman in a landslide headline I am afraid that all these optimistic articles will convince many to not bother voting because the election is a done deal and then we wake up the next morning with the Fascists in full control of the land because you can be sure that EVERY RWNJ shall vote.

    Reply

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