Tag: blue wave 2026
Tom Bevan

High On Copium! How Online Republicans Confront Looming Blue Tsunami

Tom Bevan, the publisher of the conservative RealClearPolitics, made an objectively true and noncontroversial post on X: “22 days from the election and this morning’s headlines could hardly be worse for GOP.” Those headlines included Senate Republicans dumping $8 million into saving the party’s Nebraska Senate seat, as well as polls showing Republicans cratering in party preference and among Latinos.

The responses to Bevan were hysterical.

“What media should be doing but won’t do is why a 38 year old named James Talarico was off campaign trail for 2 weeks?” read one response, pretending that conservatives’ hilariously debunked conspiracy theory had even an inkling of relevancy. “That would require investigative reporting of a Democrat by a corrupt media”

“The polls are doing their job, forcing R’s to waste money on races that really aren’t in any danger,” read another reply, as if Republicans were basing their spending decisions on random media polls, as opposed to their own internal research.

“Maybe if Congress had actually supported the Trump agenda and the Save America Act they might have better poll,” argued yet another. “The election is a referendum on them Not Pres Trump or MAGA.” Expect this one to be a popular excuse in what should be an epic post-election blame game.

“Yeah because these are voter suppression headlines,” cried another MAGA nut. “The media and pundits are rooting for the GOP to lose.”

Assuming this were true—and given the condition of our nation, I wish it were—what does that have to do with Republicans dumping $8 million into Nebraska, among other recent shocking developments?

“If you actually looked at the early vote data, doesn’t jibe with the leftist polls you harp on every day,” replied another X user. (I will admit, however, that I am sympathetic to this one because we had this exact same cope in 2024.)

The problem with taking solace in the early vote is two-fold. One, the early vote doesn’t count any more than the late vote. We had liberals voting early in 2024, only to get swamped by the Election Day vote. This year, likely given the Trump administration’s efforts to mess with the U.S. Postal Service and mail ballots, liberals seem to be shifting back to in-person voting. In the end, early-vote numbers give us very little insight into the eventual outcome.

Furthermore, there is no way to know how independents are voting, nor, for that matter, how rural Republicans in Ohio facing a data center in their backyard might vote.

But for sure, this is one of the most popular copes, like this X user: “Hahahahahhahaha and yet despite all the MSM propaganda, further amplified by you of course, GOP voters are turning out!! Mail + early voting gives us a picture of NO blue wave & barely a blue trickle! Senate will stay in GOP hands & house will be very narrowly won by Dems.”

n the real world, Republicans have had to spend over $200 million to try and save a Senate seat in Texas, of all places, not to mention all the millions going into Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska, etc. In a blue trickle, Republicans would still be competing in the reddish-purple states of Georgia and North Carolina. And they aren’t.

Conservatives being conservatives, they do dip into some weird conspiracy stuff, like, “Uniparty RHINO’s are holdouts for the globalist left.” Does anyone want to venture a guess on what the “H” could stand for? “Republican H___ In Name Only.”

They can always pretend that those dire headlines are just ho-hum: “i’m not sure how ‘The GOP should have started spending money earlier, but they’re spending it now’ is that big of a crisis.”

It’s where they are spending it, of course. Also, the fact that they’re largely not spending it in Georgia or North Carolina is part of that big crisis.

How else can they cope? With insults, of course!

“If you believe media headlines you have far worse problems than republicans- like being gullible,” wrote one replier. “[A]s the old saying goes ‘There’s a sucker born every minute.’”

Ironically...

Bevan ended up incredulous at the cope since it flies in the face of all reality.

“So much cope in the responses,” he responded. “Even if you hate the media & don’t believe the polls, it’s inarguable the GOP is spending the vast majority of its 2 most precious resources (time & money) in the final weeks of the campaign defending deep red areas: $8M in NE, $5M in SC, $5M in KS, $17M in Iowa, $127M in TX, $144M in OH.”

He concluded: “Trump isn’t traveling to OH, AK, TX and NE because of bullshit polls or media bias. He’s … trying to activate MAGA voters to stave off a blue wave. Maybe he’ll be successful. But the WH and the GOP are very concerned about a worst-case scenario—and they have every right to be.”

You truly have to stick your head in the sand to pretend that the worst, for Republicans, isn’t yet to come.

Markos Moulitsas is founder and editor of the blogging website Daily Kos and author of three books.


James Talarico

Even Republican Pollsters Now See A Blue Wave On Midterm Horizon

As polls turn further toward Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections, one might expect Republican pollsters to try to cut against that narrative and release some data to put a damper on all this blue-wave talk. But so far, they generally aren’t doing that.

A spate of new surveys from GOP-affiliated pollsters show Democrats well positioned across key Senate races.

In Texas’ Senate contest, two Republican polls show Democratic nominee James Talarico ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton. One from InsiderAdvantage shows Talarico up two points, while another, from SoCal Strategies, has him leading Paxton by five points.

One InsiderAdvantage poll even shows a close race in South Carolina’s Senate race: Democratic nominee Annie Andrews trails Republican Sen. Darline Graham by just two points. That is remarkable for a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024 by 18 points, and where no Democratic Senate nominee has lost by less than 9.6 points since the 1990s.

Notably, the only nonpartisan poll released since the start of July, from Abacus Data, showed Graham ahead of Andrews by 13 points.


Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster infamous for its opaque methodology, finds the Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Michigan (D+2), North Carolina (D+6), and Georgia (D+7). All of those results are roughly in line with those from nonpartisan firms, despite Trafalgar having a track record of bias toward Republican candidates.

Iowa is also up for grabs, according to Cygnal’s new poll, which was sponsored by a right-wing group called Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. The survey finds Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson tied at 43 percent, though they don’t advertise that data in the sponsor’s press release. You have to look at the poll’s full PDF to find it.

The largest difference between nonpartisan and GOP pollsters comes in Kansas. A new poll from Emerson College shockingly found Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Sen. Roger Marshall by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent. Meanwhile, GOP-aligned pollster co/efficient finds Marshall up five points over Hamilton. However, even if co/efficient’s result is borne out in November, it would represent a massive underperformance from Marshall. The Sunflower State hasn’t had a Democratic senator since 1932, and since 1980, Republican Senate candidates there have won by 33 points on average.

To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats on net. The best route runs through defending their competitive seats in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, then flipping four Republican-held seats, such as those in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, or elsewhere.

If the November results exactly follow the recent polling from Republican firms, then Democrats would pick up three Senate seats on net this year—not enough to take the majority, yet a result that was hard to fathom roughly two years ago. (The Maine Senate race is tied in the one GOP-aligned poll released since July. If that seat flipped as well, it would give Democrats a majority.)


Former RNC Chair Defects To Endorse Democrat In Razor-Close Montana Race

Former RNC Chair Defects To Endorse Democrat In Razor-Close Montana Race

A former chair of the Republican National Committee and two-term GOP governor has endorsed a Democratic House candidate running for a battleground seat in Montana. According to MS NOW, “Marc Racicot, who won two terms as Montana’s governor in the 1990s before leading the RNC during George W. Bush’s first term, is set to endorse Sam Forstag’s bid for the state’s 1st Congressional District, currently held by a Republican.”

“He cares about what he’s doing. He’s very well prepared. He has the right priorities in terms of character and virtues and values and belief in the Constitution,” Racicot told MS NOW. “It’s not even a close call for me to stand in Sam’s corner.”

This is an important endorsement for the Democrats with the midterms just around the corner. The party is hoping to win the majority in the House, and to do so in purple-shaded red states like Montana requires the support of independents and Republicans who have been disappointed by President Donald Trump.

Racicot – a critic of Trump – has backed a number of Democrats in recent years, including Joe Biden in 2020. As MS NOW explains, “The public embrace from Racicot could go toward helping the kind of crossover appeal Forstag likely needs to do what no Montana Democrat has been able to do since the 1990s: win a U.S. House seat in the state.”

The seat is currently held by a retiring Republican, and Forstag is running against Aaron Flint – a combat veteran and former conservative radio host who is running under Trump’s endorsement. According to MS NOW, “Forstag, who worked as a smokejumper after lobbying in Montana for the state’s American Civil Liberties Union wing, won a divided primary despite warnings from some critics that he was too liberal for the district.

Since then, he’s built an unusual profile in a state where the national Democratic brand has proved corrosive. He is one of only a handful of congressional Democrats endorsed by both progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders and the centrist Blue Dog political outfit. Racicot’s support on top of that offers some Bush Republican-era nostalgia for voters as Forstag tries to cut into the state’s rightward drift.”

Polls currently indicate that the race is razor close. According to the latest survey, the two candidates are running dead even with 44 percent each. That's bad news for the Republican Party, which has been working to consolidate its hold on Montana, but is expected to take major losses in the midterms due to backlash from Trump's historic unpopularity.

“We’re in a hole that both parties have been digging for us,” Forstag said, urging support for a kind of Democrat “that could actually improve your life, and is actually going to prioritize doing so, because I know what it’s like on a day-to-day basis.”

Reprinted with permission from AlterNet


As Midterm Polls Signal Blue Tsunami, GOP Is Frantically Waving The Flag

As Midterm Polls Signal Blue Tsunami, GOP Is Frantically Waving The Flag

The latest New York Times/Siena University poll has devastating news for the GOP ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

In addition to a record-low approval rating of 37 percent for President Donald Trump, the generic congressional ballot had Democrats up by 10 percentage points, which jumped to a staggering 14 points among voters most likely to cast ballots.

Republicans can’t quit Trump. He won’t let them, even if they wanted to—and most don’t want to anyway. Trump has remade the GOP in his image, and they’re fine with it, no matter what the polls say.

But Republicans aren’t resigned to November losses. They have a dastardly new plan ready to go, one they think will dramatically reshape the political playing field this summer.

“A couple more states redistricting in a way that’s helpful for us, move into the summer with America 250, and a midterm convention at some point,” a “very senior Republican strategist” (Stephen Miller?) told NOTUS. “I think we’ve got some good touch points to kind of keep that momentum rolling.”

[Record scratch.]

Wait, the plan is what?

“We will make sure that people are aware of the fact that we are the party of patriotism and love of country, and the Democrats are just—I mean, there’s polling to support me on this,” a “second Republican strategist” (Dan Scavino?) said. “They are not proud to be Americans. It’s very obvious, and they can’t help themselves.”

Ah, yes. People can’t afford groceries or gas, but “patriotism and love of country” will definitely drive waves of Republicans and independents to the polls to punish Democrats for not, uh, celebrating hard enough?

Top it off with a “midterm convention”—Trump’s seemingly forgotten pre-midterm rally—and sure, Democrats are quaking in their boots.

“Loving America harder” isn’t the closing argument Republicans think it is.

Markos Moulitsas is founder and editor of the blogging website Daily Kos and author of three books.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos


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