Tag: gop presidential nomination
Former president Donald Trump

Trump Claims Polls Show He's 'Leading Very Big' -- A Very Big Lie

An angry, rambling, and defensive Donald Trump finally emerged from hiding on Thursday to give his stump speech to a bunch of reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. The GOP’s presidential nominee insisted he had the biggest rally crowds ever and attempted to make news by finally agreeing to debate Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. But all reporters wanted to talk about was his floundering campaign.

One reporter mentioned that Trump has just one public event scheduled this week.

“Some of your allies have expressed concern that you’re not taking this race seriously,” the reporter said, which set Trump off on one of several tirades about recent polls.

“I’m leading by a lot,” Trump claimed, after calling it a “stupid question.”

He returned to that topic in this riff about his “good polls” where he’s “substantially leading.”

“Fortunately, we’ve had some very good polls over the last fairly short period of time,” Trump said. “Rasmussen came out today with substantially leading,” he continued.

That’s true: Rasmussen Reports does have a new poll giving Trump a 5-point lead. But Rasmussen Reports is the notoriously conservative and inaccurate pollster that 538 dropped from its polling averages and forecasts earlier this year. Meanwhile, the separate and more credible RMG Research, run by Scott Rasmussen, had Harris leading by five points as recently as six days ago.

But Trump was on a roll.

“Others came out today that we’re leading and in some cases substantially,” he boasted. “CNBC came out also with a poll that has us leading, and leading fairly big in swing states.”

Trump’s lead in the head-to-head with Harris in the CNBC poll is 2 points. It is a national poll and does not provide data from swing states. Never mind—in his head, it’s true.

“Some polls I’m leading very big in swing states,” Trump insisted.

In reality, no, he is not. On Thursday, the Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for three swing states, changing them from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up":

According to 538’s poll aggregates, Harris has an edge over Trump in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and she’s running neck and neck with Trump in North Carolina.

At the end of last week, Harris had the lead in a dozen separate national polls.

The surge Harris experienced after President Joe Biden stepped aside and endorsed her as the Democratic candidate wasn’t a blip or a bounce, either. It’s sustained, and it has changed this race.

And Trump can’t take it.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Trump and Biden

Wrong Again: Right-Wing Media Said Biden Would Never Debate Trump

After President Joe Biden expressed interest in debating presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump ahead of the 2024 election, right-wing media claimed Biden is running another “basement campaign” and his “puppeteers” would never allow any debates because it would be the “kiss of death” to the president's campaign. Those claims have followed years of right-wing and mainstream media fixating on the president’s age and mental acuity.

On May 15, Biden announced he had accepted an invitation to a CNN debate, and within hours, Biden and Trump mutually agreed to two debates, one each on CNN and ABC.

  • Biden and Trump have agreed to participate in two debates

    • On May 15, Trump and Biden mutually agreed to participate in a series of two debates, which will be hosted by CNN and ABC, respectively. The candidates are now scheduled to debate on June 27 and September 10 after Biden posted on X (formerly Twitter) that he had accepted debate invitations from the respective networks. Trump has a history of skipping presidential debates, most recently skipping those scheduled for the GOP primaries, but he has agreed to the two debates with Biden. [CNN, 5/15/24; NPR 5/16/24; The Associated Press 8/21/23; Twitter/X, 5/15/24, 5/15/24]
    • Weeks before Biden and Trump agreed to the debates, Biden had publicly expressed his desire to do so. In April, radio host Howard Stern asked Biden if he would debate Trump. Biden replied: “I am, somewhere, I don’t know when, but I am happy to debate him.” On May 9, Biden was asked when he would debate Trump during a White House event, to which he responded, “Set it up.” [The New York Times, 4/26/24; The White House, 5/9/24]
  • Right-wing and mainstream media have fixated on the president’s age and mental acuity

    • Right-wing media have repeatedly attacked Biden for his age and claimed that he is too old and mentally unfit to campaign and continue serving in office. Beginning in 2020, Trump and his right-wing media allies attacked Biden for hosting virtual campaign events during the COVID-19 pandemic, claiming that he was hiding in the “basement” to hide his age and lack of stamina. [Media Matters, 7/1/20, 2/9/24, 3/8/24; The Hill, 9/11/23; Politico, 6/24/20]
    • Right-wing and mainstream media outlets have disproportionately fixated on Biden’s age and mental acuity, even though Trump is nearly the same age. In various studies, Media Matters has found that both cable news and widely circulated newspapers mentioned Biden’s at a much higher rate than Trump’s. [Media Matters, 9/29/23, 10/20/23]
  • Right-wing media claimed Biden's “puppeteers” would not allow him to debate Trump

    • In response to Biden’s “set it up” comment, former White House press secretary and Outnumbered co-host Kayleigh McEnany said, “I won’t believe that Biden debates until I see it with my own eyes.” “Make no mistake this is basement campaign 2.0, it’s just run out of the Oval Office,” she said. “So do you really think the basement campaign is going to let him out of the Oval Office to go get demolished by Donald Trump? He will sit in the metaphorical basement. I hope to be proven wrong though.” [Fox News, Outnumbered, 5/10/24]
    • In response to McEnany, Fox News contributor and former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said, “Kayleigh’s right, there can’t be debates. If he debates it’s going to be the kiss of death for Joe Biden as well as the Democratic Party.” Referring to Biden’s “set it up” comment, Fleischer continued, “He can't even walk up the stairs to Air Force One, yet he can stand up on stage for an hour and a half at prime time? No. They’re going to have to hide him.” Then, referencing McEnany’s basement attack, Fleischer added, “You know there is a basement underneath the Oval Office. It’s located next to the Mess. And that’s what you’re going to have with Joe Biden if he takes the stage — a mess.” [Fox News, Outnumbered, 5/10/24]
  • As The Ingraham Angle's chyron displayed “Will Biden Actually Debate?,” Fox News contributor Byron York said that Biden did “get through” a “fawning, flattering, positive, easy” interview on The Howard Stern Show, but commented, “The idea of getting through an actual debate, clearly his team doesn’t want that.” During the segment, host Laura Ingraham played a clip of former White House secretary Jen Psaki on Meet the Press commenting on Biden saying he would debate Trump. “I was thinking, if I was in my old job from two years ago — you also don’t want him to say ‘no’ because no is weak and no is fear,” she said. [Fox News, The Ingraham Angle, 4/29/24; NBC, Meet the Press, 4/28/24]
  • When asked about Biden’s statement to Stern, Fox News contributor and former House Rep. Jason Chaffetz said that he would “be shocked if Joe Biden debated” and suggested that Biden did not check in with his “puppeteers” before making the statement. “I don’t know that he checked in with the puppeteers that help control this,” Chaffetz said. “I would be shocked if Joe Biden debated. I don’t think anybody on his team can afford to allow him to answer spontaneous questions and joust with probably one of the better debaters in Donald Trump.” He added, “He’s got to have people surrounding him just to walk to Marine One. The idea that he’s actually going to debate, I don’t think he’ll actually ever show up for that.” [Fox News, The Story with Martha MacCallum, 4/26/24]
  • During a Fox appearance two days later, Chaffetz once again claimed there was no way Biden’s “puppeteers” would “allow that guy out onto the stage to debate.” “The cognitive capability of this president does not allow him to debate,” Chaffetz added. Then, referencing Psaki’s appearance on Meet the Press, Chaffetz added: “Those five people on MSNBC or whatever network that was, they all know Joe Biden does not have the wherewithal to go toe-to-toe with the single best debater we’ve seen in Donald Trump.” [Fox News, The Big Weekend Show, 4/28/24]
  • Podcaster and RNC co-chair Lara Trump claimed on Newsmax:“Joe Biden can barely read off a teleprompter, let alone stand on a stage and debate Donald Trump.” “We need debates,” she said. “But the team that Biden has is in a full-blown panic because that is the last thing they want.” [Twitter/X, 4/30/24]
  • Real America’s Voice host John Fredericks played the clip of Psaki and claimed: “Of course he’s not going to debate, he can’t get three sentences out.” Michael Faulkender, America First chief economist, commented, “This is the guy that we would want to put in place for another four years to battle with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and he doesn’t even know what steps to go down on Air Force One or which way to exit a stage?" He went on, “So they’ve got to hide him, they’ve got to keep him in the basement, they’ve got to keep him on a beach in Delaware because he can’t possibly get out there for 90 minutes and have anywhere near the energy that Trump has.” [Real America’s Voice, Outside the Beltway with John Fredericks, 4/30/24]

Reprinted with permission from Media Matters.

Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

By Nathan L. Gonzales, CQ-Roll Call (TNS)

WASHINGTON—Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is poised to absorb Donald Trump’s supporters when the billionaire exits the race for the GOP presidential nomination, according to one of the campaign’s most common narratives. But how many Trump supporters are open to supporting another candidate?

The quickest analysis of the Republican race divides candidates into distinct establishment and anti-establishment lanes, including lumping Trump, Cruz, and Ben Carson supporters together as a monolithic force that is interchangeable between the candidates.

Unsurprisingly, the situation is more complicated.

Trump and Cruz have found success in Republican race by railing against the Republican establishment and there is a tendency to couple their fates because of their outsider message. But part of Trump’s appeal is his personality and profile, as evidenced by a December CNN piece, “Trump supporters’ second choice? Trump.”

“There isn’t anybody else,” 47-year-old Sean Hadley told CNN at a Trump rally in Des Moines, Iowa. “Everybody else is bought and paid for, no matter what party.” Trump supporter Ernie Martin also said he didn’t have a second choice because he didn’t trust any of the alternatives because “they’re all connected to Washington.”

Cruz might be able to attract some Trump supporters with his rhetoric and policy positions, but he can’t change who he is — a sitting senator, a politician — and who he is not — a successful businessman and celebrity.

In some big ways, Cruz is not identical to Trump — a larger than life candidate who people hope can bring about change and fix what’s broken in the country through sheer force of personality, as Yahoo’s Jon Ward wrote after spending time talking with Trump supporters in line for a rally last month.

Of course, that evidence is anecdotal, but not necessarily irrelevant. And Trump’s support in the polls is undeniable, as is the possibility that he leaves the race before winning the nomination. But identifying precisely how many Trump supporters are amenable to Cruz is challenging.

“We are fighting to be their second choice,” one Cruz ally told Roll Call about Trump supporters. “We have a majority of his second choice voters. If he does drop, we, by a majority, are the beneficiary.”

A mid-December automated poll of Iowa Republican primary voters by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic company, backed up that assertion and showed that 36 percent of Trump supporters said Cruz was their second choice. Carson was second with 14 percent while none of the other candidates cracked double digits. Another 14 percent said they were “undecided” on the second choice question.

But, even though Trump outpaced Cruz 28 percent to 25 percent on the primary ballot in that PPP survey, a potentially more important question is whether Cruz needs Trump supporters at all.

According to the Cruz loyalist, the Texas senator is well-positioned in Iowa on Feb. 1 in a lower turnout scenario that includes Republicans who have participated in previous caucuses, without any current Trump supporters.

For example, a December poll by Selzer & Co. for The Des Moines Register showed Cruz with a 31 percent to 21 percent advantage over Trump in the Hawkeye State, followed by the rest of the field.

But Trump performs better in higher turnout scenarios when the pool of participants includes Republicans who have rarely or never participated in a caucus before, and thus deemed unlikely to vote.

“If turnout is up a little bit, we like where we are,” according to the Cruz source. “If it’s up a lot, it starts to get much stronger for Trump.”

Part of that confidence stems from Cruz’s effort (and not just Trump’s) to attract Republicans who haven’t previously been involved. The Carson campaign is appealing to casual Republicans as well.

Of course, the race in Iowa, and subsequent states, will come down to turnout, including Trump’s ability to get those infrequent or new Republicans out to vote.

“We still have a significant number of voters that are unlikely to turnout,” said the Cruz supporter. “He just has more of them than we do.”

©2016 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Photo: Republican U.S. presidential candidates businessman Donald Trump (L) and Senator Ted Cruz (R) pose together before the start of the Republican presidential debate in Las Vegas, Nevada December 15, 2015. REUTERS/David Becker 

 

Tea Party Dominating Republican Presidential Primary

BERLIN, N.H. (AP) — Bulling its way into 2012, the Tea Party is shaping the race for the GOP presidential nomination as candidates parrot the movement’s language and promote its agenda while jostling to win its favor.

That’s much to the delight of Democrats who are working to paint the Tea Party and the eventual Republican nominee as extreme.

“The Tea Party isn’t a diversion from mainstream Republican thought. It is within mainstream Republican thought,” Mitt Romney told a New Hampshire newspaper recently, defending the activists he’s done little to woo, until now.

The former Massachusetts governor is starting to court them more aggressively as polls suggest he’s being hurt by weak support within the movement, whose members generally favor rivals such as Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann.

Romney’s shift is the latest evidence of the big imprint the Tea Party is leaving on the race.

Such overtures come with risks, given that more Americans are cooling to the Tea Party’s unyielding tactics and bare-bones vision of the federal government.

After Washington’s debt showdown this summer, an Associated Press-GfK poll found that 46 percent of adults had an unfavorable view of the Tea Party, compared with 36 percent just after last November’s election.

It could give President Barack Obama and his Democrats an opening should the Republican nominee be closely aligned with the Tea Party.

Yet even as the public begins to sour on the movement, Romney and other GOP candidates are shrugging off past Tea Party disagreements to avoid upsetting activists.

That includes Perry, who faced a Tea Party challenger in his most recent election for governor and who has irked some Tea Party-ers so much that they are openly trying to undercut his candidacy. Instead of fighting back, Perry often praises the Tea Party.

In his book “Fed Up!” Perry wrote: “We are seeing an energetic and important push by the American people — led in part by the Tea Party movement — to give the boot to the old-guard Washington establishment who no longer represent us.”

There’s a reason for the coziness. Voters who will choose the GOP nominee identify closely with the movement.

A recent AP-GfK survey showed that 56 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning people identified themselves as Tea Party supporters. Also, Republicans who back the Tea Party place a higher priority than other Republicans on the budget deficit and taxes, issues at the center of the nomination contest.

Last year, the Tea Party injected the GOP with a huge dose of enthusiasm, helping it reclaim the House and end one-party rule in Washington. These days, they are firing up the campaign trail in early-voting Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

It’s little wonder, then, why many of the White House aspirants are popping up at rallies by the Tea Party Express, a Sacramento, Calif.-based political committee that’s in the midst of a 30-city bus tour. That tour ends Sept. 12 in Tampa, Fla., where the group will team with CNN to sponsor a nationally televised GOP debate. Every Republican candidate faring strongly in the polls is set to participate.

Some grass-roots activists will cringe. They consider the Tea Party Express uncomfortably close to the GOP establishment. Nonetheless, “it’s a moment of political arrival” for the Tea Party, says Bruce Cain, a University of California, Berkeley political scientist.

Five months before the first voting in the nomination fight, a Gallup survey of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents last week found Perry pulling strong support from voters who identify themselves as Tea Party supporters, with 35 percent, followed by Romney and Bachmann at 14 percent.

That may help explain why Romney decided to speak Sunday at a Tea Party Express rally in New Hampshire and appear Monday at a forum in South Carolina hosted by GOP Sen. Jim DeMint, who oversees a political committee that has supported Tea Party candidates.

DeMint said the Tea Party is “one of the best things that’s happened to our country and to politics, because there’s a broad cross-section of Americans involved in citizen activism today. And some are called Tea Party; some are not.”

Rather than anointing any candidate, DeMint said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that he’s looking to see which one “really catches the attention and inspires the average American, who has gotten involved with politics and the political process.”

Perry, Bachmann and others in the 2012 planned to appear at DeMint’s event.

Some Tea Party groups plan to protest Romney’s appearances. They are irked that as governor, he signed a bill that enacted a health program mandating insurance coverage. It served as a precursor to Obama’s federal measure that the Tea Party despises.

“Mitt Romney is a poser,” said Andrew Hemingway, chairman of the New Hampshire Liberty Caucus, which helped coordinate an anti-Romney rally in Concord. “He’s a fraud trying to stand on a Tea Party stage.”

Romney has stepped up his courtship in recent weeks. At a veterans’ hall in Berlin, N.H., a voter asked how Romney would handle the “right-wing fringe” that, the questioner said, had taken over the GOP.

Romney’s answer: “I’ll take a bit of exception with that. … You’re not going to see me distance myself from those who believe in small government, because I believe in it too.”

Other candidates are also rushing to defend the Tea Party.

Rick Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, recently ridiculed a Democratic congresswoman who said the Tea Party should “go straight to hell.” Americans on the political left “absolutely despise the founding principles of this country,” he said.

When Democrats accused the Tea Party of holding the GOP hostage during the debt debate, Bachmann sent out a fundraising letter that said, “Only in the bizarro world of Washington is fiscal responsibility sometimes defined as terrorism.”

The Tea Party is felt in other ways.

At an Iowa debate in August, every candidate on stage signaled opposition to a debt-reduction deal if it included as much as $1 in tax increases for every $10 in spending cuts. Tea Party groups oppose tax increases.

The early exit of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty from the race can be attributed in part to his failure to earn credibility with the Tea Party movement. Bachmann’s entire candidacy could, perhaps, be attributed to encouragement she received from Tea Party backers; she’s courted them since the party’s founding.

Each time a candidate is linked to the movement, the Democratic National Committee gleefully works to brand the candidate, and the Republican Party in general, as outside the mainstream.

Tea Party activists are emboldened after helping get 30 like-minded House members elected last fall. Their victories changed the direction of Congress so much that demands from Tea Party-aligned lawmakers nearly halted government during this summer’s debt debate.

Aside from the presidential race, Tea Party leaders have no less than 100 congressional primaries in their sights as they look to expand their influence on Capitol Hill.

Whatever happens, the party is leaving a stamp on the presidential race, and Democrats hope it will last.

Shop our Store

Headlines

Editor's Blog

Corona Virus

Trending

World