Tag: journalism
Trump's Negatives Up: People Want Cheaper Groceries -- And Free Speech

Trump's Negatives Up: People Want Cheaper Groceries -- And Free Speech

In numerous posts, I have expressed some degree of puzzlement as to why this administration keeps doing things that regular folks don’t like. After all, they are led by a president who, as chaotic, corrupt and self-dealing as he is, has good antennae for working-class sentiment. Today, I’d like to speak freely, while one still can, and say a few words about why I believe free speech is the latest item of that list.

Let me remind you of my rap in this space, and I’ll be brief, because I don’t want to get out of my depth. I think of myself as a political economist, and I find that works best when I weight the two sides of that equation at 30 and 70 percent, respectively.

Trump has a reliable base who will stick with him no matter what. There was some overheated journalism around the base’s negative reaction to his suppression of the Epstein files, but it predictably fizzled. These are what political consultants call “unpersuadeables.” I don’t know their share of the electorate, but people say they’re in the 35-40% range, though that could be high. His “strongly approve” poll rating typical runs short of 30%

But the folks who put him over the top electorally—the marginal Trump voter—are not in this group. They didn’t like a lot of what they saw under Biden, particularly regarding affordability, and Trump argued he could get them their old prices back (not the whole story, of course).

Those folks are not happy (see figure above) and I see little prospect of their moods improving. Trump is 25% underwater on inflation and the cost-of-living. Some of that is incumbency bias (it’s his vibecession now) but it’s also definitely his fault, as most people recognize that his tariffs push the wrong way on affordability. Health care—another big affordability issue—is closely behind the cost-of-living’s disapproval rating, and note that some of most egregious coverage cuts from Trump’s budget bill haven’t even hit folks yet.

Why, then, does he continue to dig this hole for himself? First, he doesn’t believe any of the above negative polling or data, and will fire any messengers who try to intrude on his alt reality. Second, he overestimates his ability to convince the public not to believe their lying eyes. People’s number one, top concern right now is affordability and price increases, while he and his minions endlessly rattle on about how there’s no inflation and no tariff passthrough.

Now, they’re coming for free speech. They believe they can use their powers of persuasion to build a false narrative connecting free speech to violent radicalization, and, again, that may resonate with the MAGA base (though some MAGA reps are complaining of the rise of the “woke right”).

But if they continue to overreach on suppressing free speech, it will penetrate the lives of people who pay little attention to these types of arguments, folks for whom Fed independence and government shutdowns and budget reconciliation are just more DC noise. But when your policies make groceries and furniture and toys more expensive, when they see their kids taking ever longer to find work because you cracked what was a very welcoming labor market (see figure), and when you start removing people from TV because you don’t like what they say, that far surpasses DC noise.


It doesn’t matter that Jimmy Kimmel’s audience was relatively small. It matters that you’re intruding into normal people’s lives in ways that both make those lives more expensive and more attentive to your excessive reach. “Wait, they’re now kicking late-night talk-show hosts off of TV?!” is as politically salient—and damaging—to the incumbent as “Wait, they’re making my groceries cost more?!”

Anymore of such analysis and I’ll be over my skis. And the above is testable—let’s see what forthcoming polls say on the matter. But I think I’m right based on the simple principle that eventually, policy matters and bad policy redounds on its parents, especially when it breaks through into their daily lives.

And these folks just keep shoving terrible policies down America’s throat.

Reprinted with permission from Econjared.

The Washington Post journalism

If This Is The Future Of Big-Time Journalism, Count Me Out

I trust it will not come as much of a surprise if I tell you that the Grande Dame of Washington D.C. journalism, The Washington Post, is in the midst creating a new quasi-op-ed online section of the paper devoted to publishing “opinion articles from other newspapers across America, writers on Substack and eventually nonprofessional writers,” according to an article in the New York Times. The program, called “Ripple,” which I take as a direct insult to the Grateful Dead and lyricist Robert Hunter, will use – you guessed it – AI to develop what the Times called opinion pieces that will “appeal to readers who want more breadth than The Post’s current opinion section and more quality than social platforms like Reddit and X.”

The paper’s CEO, a British citizen by the name of Will Lewis, “has been looking for new ways to reduce costs at the company while finding new sources of revenue,” according to the Times. He landed on the magic bullet of using non-professional writers working with prompts from an AI writing tool called “Ember,” to go after a potential audience of 38 million adults located “outside of coastal elites.” The fly-over people, in other words.

Non-professional writers would be helped along with their submissions by the AI writing coach Ember, which will provide them with a “‘story strength tracker’ that tells writers how their piece is shaping up, with a sidebar that lays out basic parts of story structure: ‘early thesis,’ ‘supporting points’ and ‘memorable ending.’”

Just wow.

One source at the Post said that the Ember writing coach will also be “inviting authors to add ‘solid supporting points,’” which looks really, really promising to me.

With its dive into Ripple and using AI to prompt non-professional writers to contribute to its digital pages, the Post has “placed a greater emphasis on building deeper engagement with users to create paid subscription businesses.”

All of this is coming to light on a day that the Washington Post published an article on testing the ability of five AI tools to read and summarize material ranging from novels to legal documents, scientific research, politics, and speeches by Donald Trump. They used ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Meta AI and Gemini. The Post article did not get into whether the AI tools will be provided to its new cast of non-professional writers to use in their “research” for the AI-coached opinion writing they will be doing, but it’s not much of a stretch to assume that they will, especially given the fact that the Post has now done an official test to see how well the AI tools work.

The answer: not very well. All the AI tools generated made up or “hallucinated” stuff that wasn’t in their reading assignments. “None of the bots scored higher than 70 percent overall — the typical cutoff for a D+,” the Post reported.

So, there it is, folks. Who knows what desperation will cause the Washington Post to turn to in the future? You have to wonder if they’ve tried just making shit up, and then you recall many of their headlines on Trump-related stories. For example, Trump has spent hours at night rage-tweeting insane gibberish about judges, and the Post reported the next day that he engaged in “analysis” of where he stands in various “legal cases.”

I must add that reading the report on AI and Ripple and Ember and how they will be used in the production of news and analysis at the Washington Post has made me enormously thankful that I have the Substack platform to publish my own journalism.

I am even more thankful for the loyal readers who have stuck with me through the thousands of columns I’ve written during this four-year journey and most especially, my paid subscribers, including the those who responded to my announcement that Salon had stopped paying freelance writers, including me, by buying new paid subscriptions, giving gift subs, and upgrading to founding members to support my work.

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

Lucian K. Truscott IV, a graduate of West Point, has had a 50-year career as a journalist, novelist, and screenwriter. He has covered Watergate, the Stonewall riots, and wars in Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He is also the author of five bestselling novels. He writes every day at luciantruscott.substack.com and you can follow him on Bluesky @lktiv.bsky.social and on Facebook at Lucian K. Truscott IV. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Lucian Truscott Newsletter.

Judge Juan Merchan

How Trump's Hush-Money Trial Is Testing Mainstream Journalism

Monday was genuinely historic. For the first time since the nation was founded, a jury sat down to hear criminal charges against a man who once served as the nation’s highest executive. Despite months in which pundits had dismissed this case as the weakest of the criminal cases Donald Trump is facing, the prosecution got off to a powerful start, outlining for the jury Trump’s long history of scandal, cover-up, and playing fast and loose with legalities.

Judge Juan Merchan kept things moving quickly. Even though Monday was a half day to allow everyone to go home for the Passover holiday, the trial moved through opening statements from both sides and saw the first witness take the stand.

That first witness was David Pecker, the former publisher of the National Enquirer. Though Pecker was only on the stand for a few minutes on Monday before the shortened day was called to a halt, his testimony, along with the opening statement from prosecutor Matthew Colangelo, made clear that this case is not only going to be a challenge for Trump, it’s also going to be a challenge to journalism.

In his brief appearance Monday, Pecker was open about how the National Enquirer did business. As The Washington Post reports, Pecker described the process at the Enquirer using a term that makes many journalists at more reputable outlets sneer: “checkbook journalism.”

That is, to get the stories that decorated the paper’s lurid pages, Pecker and his colleagues at the National Enquirer simply took the very direct route of opening up the checkbook and paying for them. Compared to hiring investigative reporters and the associated resources of a solid newsroom, this can be a relatively inexpensive way to operate. And when it comes to juicy behind-the-scenes tales of globe-trotting celebrities, checkbook journalism may be the only way to get the stories otherwise hidden from the public.

As Pecker made clear, those checks were often cut to hotel workers, limo drivers, or other workers who stood around being socially invisible while celebrities were at play.

Paying for a story may seem morally questionable, and many schools of journalism would hold it unethical. But is it really that much more dubious than hiring Ronna McDaniel to provide news commentary, or populating your whole newsroom with former Trump staffers?

The stories served up by the National Enquirer are often designed to feed prurient interests, but there’s another form of journalism that may be far more destructive than writing a check to someone who very likely needs it. And a big hint at that kind of journalism also surfaced in the first morning of the trial.

Midway through Colangelo’s opening statement to the jury, New York Times crime reporter Jonah Bromwich was struck by a singular thought about the story of how Trump’s relationship with Stormy Daniels was kept out of the news.

For years, this story has been told by reporters with caveats and caution. So it’s really striking to hear Colangelo lay the hush money scheme directly at Trump’s feet, with perfect clarity. “It was election fraud, pure and simple,” Colangelo says bluntly.

That certainly is “striking.” And it absolutely begs the question of why reporters would have spent years tiptoeing around this story. Why did Colangelo’s statement seem so shocking when compared to other reporting on these same events?

Bromwich might want to ask that of the other New York Times reporter working from the courthouse on Monday, Maggie Haberman.

Haberman and her bosses at the Times might turn their noses up at the idea of breaking out a wallet for checkbook journalism, but they certainly seem to be open to even more damaging access journalism.

As The New Yorker reported in 2023, Haberman has long been Trump’s personal chronicler, regarded as a “safe” and “friendly” choice when Trump needed to add some faux dignity to some claim or event. Haberman could not only be counted on to edit events to prevent Trump from coming off too badly, but she saved up some of the juiciest events she witnessed, leaving them out of real-time reporting to later drop it in her book. That included withholding knowledge that Trump intended to stay in the White House after losing the 2020 election to President Joe Biden.

Haberman was far from alone when it came to withholding critical information from the public. For example, ABC News' chief Washington correspondent, Jonathan Karl, did not mention a memo from former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows describing the whole scheme to undo Biden’s victory until Karl had a chance to drop that memo in his book nearly a year later.

The New York Times’ coverage of Monday’s court action includes its disdain for the kind of journalism practiced at the National Enquirer. In describing the catch-and-kill scheme Pecker created to protect Trump, the Times wrote, "In the world of tabloid journalism, where ethical lines are blurry, deciding what to publish and why is often a calculus that covers favors doled out and chits called in."

But how does that “blurry” world differ from the kind of access journalism practiced at The New York Times and other major news outlets? When a journalist is more interested in maintaining a source than delivering the truth, questions get pulled and hard facts are omitted. As Editor & Publisher reported in 2021, even when a source lies to a reporter, the source is rarely dropped because reporters may feel they could need that source again in the future.

Bromwich found the story of Trump’s crimes so “striking” because prosecutors were doing what the Times is supposed to do, delivering a naked, straightforward accounting of the events without pulling punches or dropping in a charming little diner for folksy insights.

As CNN reported earlier this month, The New York Times seems to be fixated on polls about President Joe Biden’s age, while giving scant attention to Trump’s borrowed Hitler quotes or his desire to be a dictator. Few major media outlets seem to be interested in critically reporting the violent rhetoric Trump uses at his campaign rallies or the way his speeches frequently dwindle into gibberish.

And as the San Francisco Chronicle said about Haberman squirreling away vital information:

In this instance, if Trump was so unstoppered he had started to conjure a coup, that’s news with a half-life of right now. Whistles must be blown, play stopped, the 25th Amendment consulted, Mike Pence invited in to measure the Oval Office for new drapes. At once.

Maybe the truth wouldn’t be so striking if the New York Times would report it more often.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Republicans Rely On Bad Journalism In Debt-Ceiling Extortion Campaign

Republicans Rely On Bad Journalism In Debt-Ceiling Extortion Bid

Republicans need the political press to do a lot of bad journalism in order to carry out their strategy of forcing through devastating spending cuts by leveraging the prospect of a calamitous default on U.S. debt. They need political journalists to produce wishy-washy “both sides” coverage that hides the party’s ultimate culpability and shields it from blame. And the latest coverage from The New York Times shows that their plan may already be working.

It shouldn’t be difficult to acknowledge that Republicans will be the ones at fault if the U.S. breaches the statutory limit on federal borrowing in June. Members of Congress of both parties routinely voted for clean debt limit hikes during Donald Trump’s presidency, which also saw record debt increases. But with Joe Biden in the White House, GOP leaders started saying last fall that they would require significant spending cuts – including to Social Security and Medicare – alongside further debt limit increases if their party won the House.

After they gained a narrow majority, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) reportedly pledged “to not raise the debt limit without major cuts” to secure the speakership. The party’s right-wing media allies are loudly cheering them on. House Republicans could, at any time, vote to prevent a global economic catastrophe, but they are refusing to do so unless Democrats give them something else they want.

And yet, here’s how the Times handled the GOP’s ransom demand in Friday’s The Morning newsletter:

The bad news: Democrats and Republicans are divided. House Republicans say they want to use a debt-limit increase — and the threat of default — as leverage to cut government spending. Top Democrats have likened the Republican stance to a hostage-taking situation. The sides can’t agree even on whether to negotiate.

Both sides, per the Times, apparently share the blame: The Republicans who are taking the global economy hostage, and the Democrats who are saying that Republicans are taking the global economy hostage rather than just paying their price.

That’s not the only such false equivalency in the piece. The Times put Republican hostage-taking when it controls a house of Congress and Democrats are in the White House alongside a protest vote Biden took as a senator in 2006, when Republicans controlled both houses of Congress and the White House. From the piece:

But that has changed over the past three decades. Republicans, in particular, have used the passage of bills increasing the limit as leverage to try to force spending cuts on Democratic administrations. Democrats, too, have used it as a political tool: In 2006, Joe Biden, then a senator, joined his Democratic colleagues in opposing a debt ceiling increase to protest the cost of tax cuts and the Iraq war.

The Times added:

A crucial ingredient in this brinkmanship is divided government. Raising the debt ceiling is less of a problem when the same party holds power in both chambers of Congress and the White House. But when the government is divided, it makes the current scenario possible: A Republican-controlled House threatens to block a debt-limit increase that Democrats who control the Senate and White House would like to pass.

But the problem isn’t divided government per se – Democratic Congresses have no issue raising the debt ceiling when a Republican is in the White House, as was the case in 2007-2008 and 2019-2020. The problem is that when the government is divided with Republicans in control of Congress and a Democrat in the White House, the Republicans engage in this reckless behavior.

If Republicans really want to slash spending – including for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid – that’s their right. There’s nothing preventing the party from spending the next two years talking about their plans in hopes of winning the White House and Senate and then executing them. Indeed, there’s nothing preventing them from spending the next two years talking about “critical race theory” and girls’ sports in hopes of winning the White House and Senate and then springing their plans on the public.

But they don’t seem interested in trying that, presumably for the same reason that unified Republican governments under Presidents Trump and George W. Bush didn’t lead to massive spending cuts – those cuts would be incredibly unpopular and would likely destroy the party’s political standing.

Instead, the GOP plan for cutting spending is to try to force the Democrats to agree to (maybe even propose) the cuts as the price to avert global economic catastrophe. That sounds insane when you write it out, so a big part of the strategy is trying to prevent the press from doing so. The party’s leaders and its propagandists are busy working the refs.


There’s no good reason for journalists to do their dirty work.

Reprinted with permission from Media Matters.

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